This week's Mock Market Report highlights a disappointing 2010 trade deadline acquisition, a National League Cy Young candidate, a shortstop most of our staffers wouldn't be afraid to scrap with and a closer with an opportunity to earn one more decent paycheck in free agency with a bounce-back season.
The data below is an ADP snapshot from Feb. 23, while the changes are based a period over the previous two weeks. A full trend report can be viewed here.
Risers
Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD (128.3, +24.7|PERCENT|) – A recent report from the North County Times indicated that Ludwick gained eight pounds during the winter. Is that what everyone is excited about? Lineup placement will lock him into the heart of the Padres' lineup now that Adrian Gonzalez is running on Dunkin' in Boston, so RBI opportunities should be plentiful for Ludwick in his first full campaign in San Diego. After carrying an .827 OPS through 77 games with the Cards last season, Ludwick struggled with the Padres in their postseason push, hitting just .211/.301/.330 and ultimately battling a calf injury throughout the final two months of the season. As the Park Indices from the Bill James Handbook point out, Petco hasn't been nearly as tough on right-handed power hitters as it has been on lefties over the last three seasons (it actually plays reasonably close to neutral for right-handed home runs). Ludwick could deliver something in the .260-.265 range with 20-25 homers and 90-plus RBI despite his home park.
Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY (13.1, +12.4|PERCENT|) – Let's chalk his 2010 season up to playing through thumb, toe, knee and hamstring injuries. Even at less than 100 percent, Teixeira swatted 33 homers and drove in 108 runs. His BABIP dropped 35 points lower than his career mark (.306) and his batting average fell to a career-low .256. Still, the contact and walk rates remained in line with typical Teixeira campaigns, so everything is in order for a bounce back this season. First base is as top-heavy as ever right now, but it wouldn't be all that surprising to see him push for .290/40/120/110 in his third season with the Yankees at age 31.
Brian McCann, C, ATL (28.9, +10.7|PERCENT|) – McCann is being drafted just slightly ahead of Victor Martinez as the second catcher off the board after Joe Mauer in most leagues. Stable commodities behind the plate are a rarity, and even McCann has his flaws – most notably, a contact rate that has tumbled from 87 percent in 2008 to 83 percent in 2009 and 80 percent last season. The Braves have developed a pretty consistent plan for resting him to keep him fresh over the course of the season, and the vision issues that plagued him earlier in his career now appear to be in check. With his placement in the lineup, .270-plus and 20-25 HR with 80-85 RBI are a lock.
Fallers
Josh Johnson, SP, FLA (72.1 -7.7|PERCENT|) – The early spring news for Johnson was good – he was throwing bullpen sessions at the Marlins' spring complex to begin February, so all signs point to him making the Opening Day start. Johnson visited a chiropractor and worked out with Mark Phillipi (a former World's Strongest Man competitor) during the offseason in an effort to stay healthy for a full season. He's an injury risk, but a Cy Young caliber talent and one that's available a few rounds after the other elite starting pitchers. Barring an unexpected injury during spring training, we like him as an excellent value here.
Alexei Ramirez, SS, CHW (101.0, -7.9|PERCENT|) – The slight-framed Ramirez was a popular answer in our annual "if you had to fight one current MLB player..." conversation at the office last season. He may not be anymore, however, after adding seven or eight pounds of muscle during the offseason. We like Ramirez because of the potent lineup he's a part of and the home park he plays in – even without the extra pounds he's averaged 18 home runs over his first three seasons with the White Sox. As long as your league doesn't replace batting average with OBP (he doesn't walk much), you should be very happy with him at this price.
Francisco Cordero, RP, CIN (193.2, -9.8|PERCENT|) – Our chief programmer Dan Roemhild has an obsession with Aroldis Chapman, but before you assume that he's worked some tech magic to sink Cordero's ADP, consider the following. Cordero has a three-year average walk rate of 4.4 BB/9IP and his strikeout rate has dropped in each of the last three seasons (12.2 K/9IP in 2007 before 10.0, 7.8 and 7.3 marks). There's certainly risk here with the aforementioned Cuban flamethrower waiting in the wings to take on a more prominent role, but at this price Cordero is looking like an intriguing "last year's bum" candidate. Reds manager Dusty Baker has been notoriously loyal to veteran players, and Cordero might have extra motivation to rebound as he approaches free agency at season's end. He may never get a multi-year deal again as he'll turn 36 in May, but Cordero's stuff hasn't really deteriorated that much since his dominant 2007 with the Brewers (86:18 K:BB, 2.98 ERA and 1.105 WHIP).