I mentioned to a friend this week in a very matter-of-fact way that starting today there are new overtime rules for the playoffs. After a brief silence, he responded with "yeah, right." The truth is there are new overtime rules starting today. Even if you're aware of them, you'll probably want to keep reading to see if there's any relevance to this year's field.
First off, the game is still sudden-death with no clock. Well, sort of sudden-death. If the team that receives the kickoff kicks a field goal, the game is not over. If the team that receives the kickoff scores a touchdown, the game is over. Let's go back to the first scenario. If the team that receives the kickoff hits a field goal, the opposing team will get a possession to tie the game and continue playing with a field goal or win the game with a touchdown. You've got all that, right?
Let's get to the onsides kick element, which could become a factor with the new rules in place. If your team goes for the onsides, recovers and scores, game over. If they don't recover it's the same as a kickoff.
This rule went into effect last March after the Vikings lost the NFC Championship game in overtime. We all know that Garrett Hartley hit a field goal on the first possession to send the Saints to the Super Bowl. The rest after is history.
Now that I've gone through the basics, let me voice my displeasure with the rules changes. I was fine the way the rules were; I saw no reason to change them after last year's NFC Championship game. The Vikings should have been good enough on defense to stop the Saints and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. They couldn't and were sent home, which I'm fine with. If the 2000 Ravens went to overtime in any of their playoff games before these new rules, do you think they would elect to receive? Probably not.
So let's look at overtime games this season (which is what I spent a ton of time looking at last night). There were 19 overtime games in the NFL during the regular season. Three of the 19 (just under 16|PERCENT|) were decided by a touchdown – Mendenhall's run against Atlanta, Holmes catch-and-run against Cleveland and Schaub's pick-6 against the Ravens. Each of those plays would have won a 2011 playoff game. I'll acknowledge the fact that there's a completely different strategy in the post-season now with these new rules as opposed to the regular season. Let's prod on.
Considering the new playoffs rules the bigger question is: how many regular season games were decided by the offense winning on that "all-so-important" first possession? The answer is: two of out 19 or 10.5|PERCENT| of the time. The Jets got a field goal against Detroit; Detroit got a field goal against Tampa Bay. That's it. That means the receiving team punted in every other case; there wasn't even a single case of missing a field goal on the first possession in overtime. Considering this, theres's a pretty strong argument against the new overtime changes in rules.
Let's get on to the here and now. Will we see these new rules have relevance in this year's playoffs? The answer |STAR|could|STAR| be yes. 13 of the 19 (68|PERCENT|) overtime games during the regular season involved playoff teams. Of the teams playing this weekend, 11 of the 19 (58|PERCENT|) overtime games during the regular season involved these teams. This weekend there are three games with a point spread of three or less, likely increasing the chances of overtime.
Here's how the eight teams playing this weekend did during overtime games during the regular season: Green Bay went 0-2, New Orleans 0-1, Baltimore 2-1, New York 2-0, Indianapolis 0-1, Kansas City 1-1, Philadelphia 0-0 and Seattle 0-0.
My picks for the weekend? I'll take all four dogs ATS and think the worst I'll do is go 2-2. Again, I think that's the |STAR|worst|STAR| I'll do.
Have a great weekend of football; I'll be back on Monday morning with my thoughts as well as my Nostradamus pick for the college National Championship game (it likely won't be what you think).