Friday
Cotton Bowl
8:00 PM ET FOX: #11 LSU 10-2 (-2) vs. #17 Texas A&M 9-3 - In the only Big 12 vs. SEC bowl game, Texas A&M will play their neighbor to the east, LSU. After initially being ruled academically ineligible, RB Steven Ridley will play in this game for the Tigers. He's extremely vital to LSU's success on offense as their passing game is well below average. On the season, Ridley leads the team in rushing yards per game (86.8) and total TDs (14). He'll be going up a stout A&M defense that is ranked 15th against the run and has only allowed two teams to average more than 4.0 yards per carry against them. Their pass defense is quite bad, ranking 94th in the nation, giving up nearly 240 yards a game, but that shouldn't hurt them as LSU does not pass the ball well. Tigers QB Jordan Jefferson is 97th in the nation in passer rating (109.72) and has thrown only 4 passing TDs on the season and two of those came in the first game of the season. He starts because he's more mobile (31.9 rushing ypg) than backup Jarrett Lee, who has his own set of issues. The LSU WRs are talented, but it will be up to coach Les Miles to figure out how to get the most out of them, be it in the wildcat, in reverses/end-arounds, or in fake field goals/punts. That's one thing that makes this game so much fun to watch, there is no telling what play Miles will call in any given down or distance. Offensively, the Aggies are led by converted QB (from WR) Ryan Tannehill. In only 6 starts he has an 11/3 TD/INT ratio and 65.3|PERCENT| completion rate. He took over the starting role for senior Jerrod Johnson who couldn't seem to shake the turnover bug. One way for Tannehill to avoid that bug himself, is to not throw to the WR that's matched up against Tiger All-American CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson is not only a shutdown corner, but he has excellent return skills, so any mistake that comes his way could be going back for 6 points. The LSU pass defense in general is dominant as they allow the 10th fewest yards per game. However, their run defense is not nearly as productive and tired down the stretch, as they allowed 151.3 yards per game in their last four games (54th nationally). Aggies RB Cyrus Gray should benefit as he was the nation's 9th leading rusher over that same time span (154.8 ypg). As the line indicates, I expect a very close and competitive game. Les Miles is 5-3 in bowl games, while Mike Sherman is 0-1.
Tigers Offense: 334.6 ypg (89th), 5.2 yards/play (79th), & 36.1|PERCENT| 3rd Down (89th)
Pass: 155.4 ypg (107th), 6.6 ypa (87th), 57.8|PERCENT| comp. (72nd), 7 TDs, & 10 INTs
Run: 179.2 ypg (33rd), 4.45 yards/carry (48th), & 27 TDs
Aggies Defense: 357.5 ypg (51st), 4.7 yards/play (11th), & 34.1|PERCENT| 3rd Down (16th)
Pass: 240.5 ypg (94th), 5.9 ypa (10th), 60.7|PERCENT| comp. (76th), 16 TDs, & 15 INTs
Run: 117.0 ypg (15th), 3.30 yards/carry (12th), & 12 TDs
Aggies Offense: 447.6 ypg (20th), 5.5 yards/play (61st), & 42.2|PERCENT| 3rd Down (48th)
Pass: 281.8 ypg (18th), 7.1 ypa (58th), 60.1|PERCENT| comp. (54th), 25 TDs, & 12 INTs
Run: 165.8 ypg (44th), 4.06 yards/carry (74th), & 19 TDs
Tigers Defense: 301.7 ypg (8th), 4.8 yards/play (16th), & 34.7|PERCENT| 3rd Down (20th)
Pass: 165.8 ypg (10th), 6.5 ypa (35th), 56.2|PERCENT| comp. (32nd), 12 TDs, & 16 INTs
Run: 135.8 ypg (38th), 3.63 yards/carry (32nd), & 15 TDs
Sunday
Emerald Bowl
9:00 PM ET ESPN: #15 Nevada 12-1 (-7.5) vs. Boston College 7-5 - The Wolf Pack's main offensive weapon, in their pistol offense, is QB Colin Kaepernick, who ranks 8th in total offensive yards per game (308.5) and 6th in total TDs (20). He's joined in the backfield by RB Vai Taua, who ranks 7th in rushing yards per game (127.8) and 1st in total TDs (22). Together they help form Nevada's 3rd ranked run offense and when they meet Boston College's top ranked run defense, something will have to give. The Wolf Pack will likely choose to attack the Eagles' 83rd ranked pass defense to help set up their run game with Kaepernick, who is a very capable passer (16th in QB passer rating). However, BC stepped up their pass defense down the stretch and only allowed 1 pass TD in their last five games. One thing the Eagles can ill afford to do is get behind early because their offense isn't explosive enough to play catch-up. They rank 109th in terms of scoring offense (18.9 ppg) and 105th in total yards per game (308.5), but it's not because of RB Montel Harris, who led the ACC in rushing yards per game (103.5). The real reason the offense struggles is because they have no one else who they can rely on to make a play other than Harris. QB Chase Rettig is a frosh and has only one game under his belt with a completion percentage better than 60|PERCENT|. On the season his TD/INT ratio is an uninspiring 6/7. Nevada's pass defense has allowed over 250 yards per game, but that's mostly a product of teams trying to trade scores with them. Still, the Wolf Pack defense should help Rettig, so long as he's able to avoid 3rd and long situations. Expect the Wolf Pack to come out motivated to finish their outstanding season on a high note. Chris Ault is just 1-6 in bowl games, while Frank Spaziani is 1-1.
Wolf Pack Offense: 535.5 ypg (3rd), 7.2 yards/play (5th), & 56.1|PERCENT| 3rd Down (2nd)
Pass: 229.6 ypg (54th), 8.7 ypa (13th), 64.6|PERCENT| comp. (24th), 21 TDs, & 8 INTs
Run: 305.8 ypg (3rd), 6.32 yards/carry (1st), & 52 TDs
Eagles Defense: 309.8 ypg (14th), 4.4 yards/play (5th), & 40.4|PERCENT| 3rd Down (68th)
Pass: 229.8 ypg (83rd), 5.8 ypa (8th), 63.7|PERCENT| comp. (106th), 13 TDs, & 19 INTs
Run: 80.0 ypg (1st), 2.66 yards/carry (1st), & 7 TDs
Eagles Offense: 308.5 ypg (105th), 4.9 yards/play (97th), & 33.3|PERCENT| 3rd Down (106th)
Pass: 175.3 ypg (93rd), 6.6 ypa (87th), 52.4|PERCENT| comp. (112th), 13 TDs, & 17 INTs
Run: 133.2 ypg (87th), 3.65 yards/carry (90th), & 9 TDs
Wolf Pack Defense: 377.3 ypg (66th), 5.7 yards/play (70th), & 38.0|PERCENT| 3rd Down (46th)
Pass: 252.7 ypg (106th), 7.2 ypa (64th), 57.0|PERCENT| comp. (40th), 15 TDs, & 10 INTs
Run: 124.6 ypg (23rd), 4.02 yards/carry (55th), & 17 TDs