I'll start by saying that I think this draft could have a downright stunning wealth of depth at running back, though I'd be surprised to see any of them going earlier than the 15th pick or so. The number of draft-eligible runners that classify traditionally as 2nd/3rd/4th round talents is simply mammoth.
With that being the case, I'm going to need to watch more film on running backs than any draft class I can recall before I'll feel confident in any ranking. As in, it's going to take months. But in the meantime, I think I have an idea of who I think the top options are, so I can at least try to sort them out in the meantime.
One note: I'll start adding a player style comparison at the end of each player's basic info. This isn't meant to be a direct comparison (ie. Comparing Leshoure to Edgerrin James isn't to say 'LESHOURE IS A 1,600-YARD BACK'), but rather a comparison of the general skill sets and playing habits the players have.
1. Mikel Leshoure|STAR|, Illinois (1st round). 6-0, 230, 4.55. Comparison: Slightly less athletic Edgerrin James.
-Leshoure would be crazy to not declare for the draft after the season he's had. He finished the 2010 regular season totaling nearly 1,700 yards from scrimmage and scoring 17 total touchdowns. He has everything I look for in a feature back at the NFL level: solid vision, very good balance, runs low, good all around athleticism, very strong, runs hard and has a lot of potential as a pass-catcher. But what really makes him stand out is how quick his feet are for a player his size. Although he doesn't have what's normally considered "breakaway speed," he's got very rare balance, cutting ability and short-area explosiveness for a player his size. When you combine all that with his strength as a runner, he's a nightmare to stop in traffic. Furthermore, his surprising explosiveness and ability to shake tacklers gives him the ability to break off plenty of big runs, even if he doesn't run a 4.3.
2. Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State (Top 40). 5-8, 200, 4.45. Comparison: Faster, less powerful Brian Westbrook.
-Despite his lack of size, I can't imagine NFL front offices not being high on Hunter. He's just so effective and solid all around as a player. Very good speed, phenomenal balance and short-area mobility, surprisingly strong, good pass-catcher, runs with determination. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets up to around the 210-pound range by the time the draft workouts come around. If he can hold onto his current athleticism at that size, I think some team will pull the trigger in the top 40. I'd consider him a better prospect than, say, Jahvid Best, so I think it'd be an easily justified pick.
3. DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma (Top 40). 6-1, 207, 4.50. Comparison: More athletic, less durable Fred Jackson.
-If it weren't for durability concerns, Murray would probably be a player worth drafting in the top 15 picks. But he's a bit taller than you'd like an NFL runner to be, and he doesn't have substantial bulk to account for the hits he's exposed to. Moreover, if he did at bulk, he might compromise the very athleticism that makes him effective. For that reason, he's not an ideal fit for a featured back role. What he has going for him is this: he's a very developed all-around runner and, if you keep his workload in check, he's a very versatile player with the ability to be a homerun threat. He also might be the most developed pass-catching running back the draft has seen in a decade or so--he has 150 career receptions in college. One potential concern with him is the fact that he's a fifth-year senior and has gotten a lot of work in college. Still, as long as he isn't forced to play a featured back role in the NFL, he should be fine, I think, and could pay off immensely as a complementary runner. He'd be particularly useful in a run-heavy offense like the one in Kansas City.
4. Lance Dunbar|STAR|, North Texas (Top 50). 5-9, 203, 4.45. Comparison: Tiki Barber.
-This is one player who I can see moving up in my rankings upon more viewing--even as high as No. 1. This could very well be another DeAngelo Williams case--a small school guy whose consistent standout play and NFL athleticism earns him a 1st-round selection. Dunbar is very well built, so his relative lack of size is a bit misleading. He can carry the load. He's a major homerun threat and is dangerous as a pass-catcher. Although he plays for North Texas, he could have played at at least a few BCS schools. If it weren't for apparent homesickness, he would be tearing up the ACC (Virginia) or Big 12 (Oklahoma State, Colorado) right now. Actually, he already tore up the Big 12. Although it was only Kansas State, Dunbar annihilated the Wildcats for 270 yards and three touchdowns on 22 carries while adding 35 yards and a fourth touchdown on three catches. Earlier in the year he burned Clemson for 179 yards from scrimmage. I have no doubt that this guy is legit--but he'll require a bit more scrutiny than most prospects to determine his exact fit in the draft due to the team he plays for.
5. Johnny White, North Carolina (3rd or 4th round). 5-10, 205, 4.60. Comparison: Marion Barber (before he was terrible).
-White is an obscure name right now, but I'm fairly confident he will leave his mark on the NFL. He might have the best balance and power of any draft-eligible runner--he's downright violent a lot of the time. He's a developed pass-catcher and shows good vision navigating through traffic. The only issue with him is he lacks speed. He might even be closer to 4.7 than a 4.6. Still, his short-area explosiveness is good enough, and that's the most important thing for a running back. I'm a big fan of this guy.
6. Jordan Todman|STAR|, Connecticut (2nd-through-4th rounds). 5-9, 193, 4.50. Comparison: More athletic, more powerful Julius Jones.
-The Julius Jones comparison might seem like an insult, but Jones actually has a good skill set from an athletic standpoint, and I think Todman is a universally enhanced version. Although he's not built to be a workhorse, Connecticut made him one this year anyway, giving him an average of 26.9 carries per game. He responded with 1,481 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns on the ground while averaging 5.51 yards per carry. He also sat out a pushover match against Buffalo that probably would have added at least another 150 yards and two touchdowns to that total. Todman is a definite homerun threat with downright sick juking ability. His strength is nothing special, but he runs with determination. He shows decent ability as a pass-catcher. The one concern I have with him is that his balance is nothing special--he even looks a bit clumsy at times. I think this mostly is because his current build is too top-heavy and he always seems to be leaning too far forward when he runs. If he would do a better job of keeping his legs under him, he'd be even tougher to bring down. But the fact is it's unlikely that he'll be able to shake that habit. Todman could fall in the draft a bit due to character concerns--he has a documented history of academic issues. I think it's safe to say Todman is a far better prospect than former Connecticut runner Donald Brown, but that's not saying much.
Other names who could be a factor (in a general order of descending rank):
Brandon Bolden|STAR|, Mississippi (2nd or 3rd round)
Tauren Poole|STAR|, Tennessee (2nd or 3rd round)
Damien Berry, Miami (FL) (2nd-through-4th rounds)
Bilal Powell, Louisville (3rd or 4th round)
Andre Ellington|STAR|, Clemson (2nd or 3rd round)
Mark Ingram|STAR|, Alabama (2nd or 3rd round)
Cyrus Gray|STAR|, Texas A&M (2nd-through-4th rounds)
Doug Martin|STAR|, Boise State (3rd-through-5th rounds)
Jay Finley, Baylor (2nd-through-5th rounds)
Ryan Williams|STAR|, Virginia Tech (2nd or 3rd round)
Derrick Locke, Kentucky (2nd-through-4th rounds)
Alex Green, Hawaii (3rd-through-5th rounds)
Vick Ballard|STAR|, Mississippi State (2nd-through-5th rounds)
Noel Devine, West Virginia (2nd-through-4th rounds)
Baron Batch, Texas Tech (4th or 5th round)
Keith Payne, Virginia (3rd-through-6th rounds)
Anthony Allen, Georgia Tech (3rd or 4th round)
Shane Vereen|STAR|, California (2nd-through-4th rounds)
Jacquizz Rodgers|STAR|, Oregon State (3rd-through-5th rounds)
LaMichael James|STAR|, Oregon (2nd-through-4th rounds)
Bobby Rainey|STAR|, Western Kentucky (3rd-through-5th rounds)
Anthony Elzy, North Carolina (5th or 6th round)
John Clay|STAR|, Wisconsin (3rd-through-5th rounds)
Even with a list that huge, I'm sure I'm forgetting one player or another.