The offense hasn't been smooth, with new point guard Darren Collison adjusting to life in the motion offense. There's been some running, but mostly we're seeing a lot of jump shooting. They were getting routinely out-rebounded and the defense was the same as it ever was, giving up over 100 points a game.
It's hard to see right now, but the Pacers are on the way back from obscurity. They've had four consecutive seasons of lottery finishes, but never wound up bad enough to get a top-5 pick. There are some pieces in place to be an interesting team -- one that could sneak into the playoffs -- but I'm not wagering money on that. And besides, it just sets up a first-round demolition at the hand of Miami, Orlando or Boston.
Heading into the regular season, coach Jim O'Brien has questions. Danny Granger, who should be available Wednesday in San Antonio after sustaining an ankle injury in the preseason, is the unquestioned fantasy star. In the real world, however, his reputation took a hit when he was relegated to end-of-the-bench status for Team USA at the FIBA Championships. O'Brien is looking for his star to play a more balanced game, and Granger's talking a good game about defending, but it didn't show in the preseason. And if the team's star isn't buying in, that sets a tone for the rest of the team.
Collison solves the point guard problem, but his strengths haven't translated seamlessly to O'Brien's preferred style, which features an emphasis on ball movement. Collison thrives in a pick-and-roll environment, and his adjustment is something to monitor. Though it hasn't affected his shooting (47|PERCENT| FG, 53|PERCENT| 3pt). His numbers over the final two preseason games -- 13/3 assists-to-turnovers) -- speak to improvement.
Roy Hibbert has received attention this offseason as a potential breakout candidate/sleeper, but his shooting was terrible. O'Brien has talked about running offense through Hibbert, and feels he's a good enough passer out of the low post. The big man is in better shape, which should mean more minutes and opportunities, but a low-post center shooting 42 percent won't demand double teams.
The rest of the starting lineup features Mike Dunleavy at shooting guard and Josh McRobert at power forward (yes, I said Josh McRoberts at power forward). Dunleavy is as healthy as he's been in three years, but as someone in the final year of a contract, he shouldn't be eating up minutes and blocking Paul George's development. If the Pacers hang tough in the lower end of the playoff spots, Dunleavy can help. If the Pacers are dogging it out with the Raptors and Nets in positions 13-15, Dunleavy is gone. Last season's starter at shooting guard, Brandon Rush, begins the season serving a five-game NBA suspension for violating the league's drug policy. Given that the team hasn't picked up next year's option, it looks like the mercurial Rush isn't a long-term asset. George was absolutely abysmal from the field during the preseason. Perhaps overwhelmed with all he needs to learn at the pro level, he shot just 28 percent (30 percent 3pt). He'll be in the rotation right away, as part of a three-man wing unit with Granger and Dunleavy, but I wouldn't be wasting an active roster spot on him in any fantasy league early on. McRoberts gives them a ton of energy and someone who doesn't need the ball, but he'll eventually be sharing the job with Tyler Hansbrough, who will get sporadic minutes early on as he works himself back into game shape following an extended period of absence due to vertigo.
On the bench, the Pacers have some questions at point guard and center. T.J. Ford, who hurt his hamstring during training camp, is the best option to back up Collison, despite not being a favorite of O'Brien. They tinkered with making second-round draft pick Lance Stephenson a point guard, but issues off the court (assault charges) and on (no defense whatsoever) make that option unlikely. He's a scorer, first and foremost. When Ford played, he pushed the tempo of the second unit, which is what O'Brien wants. Can he stay healthy and motivated? Jeff Foster, age 33 and coming off a back injury, will back up at center, but the Pacers lose all low-post scoring threat when Hibbert leaves the game. All the more reason for Ford to push the tempo and have offense created in that kind of flow. Out on the perimeter, Rush and James Posey figure to get whatever playing time is available.
For much of the preseason, A.J. Price was Indiana's best player. That's not good. Collison needs to figure out the offense; Hibbert has to be a better threat to create space for Granger, Dunleavy and George; they need better 3-point shooting to create room inside for Hibbert; they need to be better defensively; they'll need good health from all their regulars. I had such optimism following the acquisition of Collison and George's summer work, but it looks more like a fourth straight sub-.500 season under O'Brien. And probably more members for the Fire Jim O'Brien Facebook page.