I want to talk about |STAR|philosophy|STAR| for a minute as opposed to strategy. The latter involves considerations like: "Should I wait on QBs," "Should I go WR/WR," "Should I reach to get a RB's backup," etc. That's been covered here and here, and while important, I don't think it's as central to winning as one's overall philosophy.
Here are a few principles I typically like to keep in mind:
Forget about ADP - draft whoever you want. The only exception to this is when a player is likely to be available in a subsequent round - obviously you shouldn't jump the gun. But if there's a good chance that someone will be picked before the draft gets back to you, and you think he's the best player on the board - only he typically goes 10 picks later - you should draft him anyway. (Ideally you could trade down, but that's not usually possible or practicable in the middle of a draft). Draft the best player available over team need - the only exception to this is at QB, but even then, in a 12-team league, if I had Tony Romo in Round 4, and Jay Cutler was still there in Round 6 or 7, I'd probably draft Cutler just to punish those who are waiting on QBs. At a minimum, if you have 2 RB already in a 2 RB, 3 WR, FLEX league, and by far the best player on the board in Round 3 is a RB, go ahead and take another one. Don't feel you have to take a WR because you don't have any yet. Even if there were no flex, I'd consider doing this as it's rare that your backs make it through an entire season unscathed, there are bye weeks and you can try to trade if all three pan out. From the third round on, you should worry about what could go right, not what could go wrong - The first round for sure, and even the second to an extent should be about safe, reliable production (though I'll gamble as early as Round 2 fairly often). But once you hit Round 3, forget it. The rate of attrition is substantial even at the top, and it's only more so as you go deeper. Every third round pick is a major risk, so simply worry about upside. So what if Jamaal Charles could lose carries to Thomas Jones, or Sean Payton could spell Pierre Thomas for God knows what reason at the goal line? If those things don't happen, either back could win you the league. As the draft goes on, figure out what you like about a player, and draft him on that basis. The pros get more weight, the cons get less and less as the draft goes on. Nobody knows a goddamn thing - the last thing you should do is take "tips". If I tell you to draft Jay Cutler, do not take my word for it - do the research, consider my arguments and the facts that support them, but make your own decision. If I like a player, no one's opinion otherwise can sway me unless it's supported by facts I hadn't considered. And if someone else likes a player, that means nothing to me unless he helps make me aware of something I was missing. Be willing to change your mind in light of new facts. But don't even consider changing it just because of someone's opinion. Trust your instincts - there's so much data to aggregate before we can make a decision, and it's almost impossible to decide how much weight to give each individual data point. So on the one hand, Pierre Thomas is really good. On the other, he was used erratically last year. On the one hand, Mike Bell is gone, and Lynell Hamilton is out, on the other, almost anyone can carry the ball on first and goal from the three. On one hand, Thomas is in one of the best offenses in the NFL, on the other, it's one of the most diverse, etc. etc. There are all kinds of considerations on both sides, and it's impossible to quantify precisely what each is worth. It's just an educated guess. Moreover, it's impossible to know whether Thomas' timeshare with Bell wasn't a result of Thomas hurting his knee last summer, Bell playing well and the Saints being undefeated for most of the year. In cases like this (which is most cases), you have to aggregate all these facts somehow into an idea of where to draft Thomas, and it's too much for the conscious mind to figure out with any kind of precision. So most people just guess, and these guesses get aggregated into an ADP, and then we operate as if the ADP actually means something, which it does not.
The alternative is to absorb as much information as you can about a player, and then trust yourself to have a sense of where he slots, totally independent of ADP. You might put Thomas 20th among RBs, but then during your draft, you notice that you prefer to draft him over your No. 18 or 17 back. Do it. Trust your instincts. If Thomas is the guy you'd rather own, forget ADP, forget where you wrote him down. Just take him.
