We make a lot of a team's strength of schedule during the NFL season, picking out teams that have good matchups in the fantasy playoffs, or even just those that have dominated inferior competition to start the season off on a high note when we're handicapping games. Despite this, it seems as though strength of schedule -- at least when looking at a series of results -- is largely ignored in baseball beyond day-to-day matchups. I would like to introduce you to Exhibit A -- Rangers starter Colby Lewis.
Lewis has been one of the most pleasant surprises in baseball to this point, successfully returning to MLB from Japan with a 3-1, 3.15 ERA and 49:17 K:BB in 45.2 innings this season. After his first two starts in April, Lewis has improved his walk rate to 2.4 BB/9IP over his last five starts, more closely resembling the improved control that he showed in Japan last season. Ultimately, Lewis has the ability to miss bats and limit the free passes, but he doesn't induce many ground balls. In fact, Lewis is currently tied for 19th among qualified starters with a 42.9|PERCENT| flyball rate.
As we know, Arlington is the wrong place to give up a lot of flyballs, yet Lewis has a 7.8 HR/FB|PERCENT| thus far. There's a very good explanation for this, however, when you examine his game log.
Apr. 9 - SEA (14th in AL in HR)
Apr. 14 - @ CLE (13th in AL in HR)
Apr. 20 - @ BOS
Apr. 25 - DET (11th in AL in HR)
Apr. 30 - @SEA
May 5 - @OAK (12th in AL in HR)
May 11 - OAK
You're seeing that correctly. Lewis has faced the four worst power-hitting teams in the AL for six of his first seven starts this season. In addition to the toll that pitching in the extreme heat at Arlington later this summer should have, Lewis is going to see better power hitting teams going forward. He benefits from having the A's and Mariners as divisional foes, but look for his ERA to creep upward as the season progresses, even though he should be a top-40 pitcher by season's end.
This isn't an obituary for Lewis, but just something that caught my eye when I was breaking him down before a possible trade offer in the Staff Keeper League for him. You can view his full game log here.