I can dress this up in as much academic language as possible, and distance myself from whatever social and moral issues exist, but on some level, this series is about gambling. I have no problem with gambling, or sports gambling, but the fact that many people do is hard to avoid, especially when you make your living writing about the sport for whose gambling scandal is one of its defining moments.

I bring this up because a day like yesterday illustrates how much chance plays a role in what we're doing here. It may not involve dice or cards or a little plastic ball, but luck...luck is important. Yesterday, I was on one team that was down two runs with one out left, and two others than were tied in the ninth inning. All three games fell my way. The wins go on the record and the units get tacked on to the ledger; it's just important to recognize that it's not all because your thought process worked.

Yesterday:

Toronto +107. [Whistles merrily past.]

Oakland +122. I'm so very, very long on Trevor Cahill that i'll pretty much live and die by his starts. This was a good one.

Chicago (NL)/Pittsburgh over 9.0. If you'd just given me Cubs over 5.0, I would have taken it. Charlie Morton could be intriguing.

Houston -105. I'm thinking the guy making eighteen million bucks and slugging under .300 for a team playing around that number shouldn't pose after he hits his first homer of the season, no matter what it did.

Colorado +118. This game doesn't tell us much, but given the spreading hype about the Padres, they may be becoming a good fade option for a little while.

I don't love anything today, but I like these four enough to list:

Florida -125, one unit. Ricky Nolasco at home against the Giants offense.

Houston +110, one unit. I know I said I was off Dan Haren for a while, but it's Wandy, and plus money, and the home team, and it's not like the Diamondbacks are that good.

Baltimore/Minnesota under 9.5 (-125), one unit. The Orioles' offense isn't very good, and Brad Bergesen is a better pitcher than he's shown, a high-command soft tosser who fits in a #4 slot.

Seattle +132. Kind of fading two perceptions here, one that the Rays are a juggernaut and the other that the Mariners are a mess. Both may well be true, but this line is being inflated by the two ideas.