Recap of two frustrating days, Thursday first:
Minnesota -126. I suppose, were I doing this for real, I wouldn't do my picks in a batch, and I would get the lineups before making a commitment. Down Justin Morneau and J.J. Hardy to injuries, Ron Gardenhire also gave Joe Mauer the day off. This left three minor leaguers in the lineup and a 4-5, against a lefty, of Jim Thome and Jason Kubel. The only bright side is that it may provide some better lines for Dontrelle Willis going forward, which would almost make it worth it.
Chicago (AL) +115. Scott Feldman actually pitched well; it was 3-1 when he left the game, but some defensive issues plagued the Rangers and Paul Konerko had two late-inning homers.
Baltimore +149. One of three shutouts I walked into the last two days.
Cincinnati/Houston under 7.5. Bronson Arroyo pitched very well, making up for Roy Oswalt's worst outing of the year.
Pittsburgh +255. Matt Kemp actually misplayed a ball that led to the win, which was amusing.
Friday:
Washington/Florida under 8.5. Ricky Nolasco got hammered and the Marlins got ten hits, five walks and a hit-by-pitch. Still a winner. Rucky, rucky.
Oakland +116. I was only kidding yesterday; I would have been on this game if not for the transaction issue, because my love for Trevor Cahill knows no bounds. For one night, it was unrequited.
Milwaukee +126. I was pretty proud of myself for dodging the bullet Thursday, when I nearly picked the Brewers and they tanked against Wade LeBlanc. Given plus money against another middling lefty, I figured I was golden. They were shut out.
Colorado +123. See below.
Almost every selection in April was based on the teams' and pitchers' perceived strengths heading into the season. Now, four weeks in, it's necessary to mix in some of what we've seen so far, not to override the preseason analysis, but to leaven it. I thought the Rockies were the best team in the NL a month ago, and I don't know if that's a sustainable notion one month into the season. They've had some injury issues, Aaron Cook hasn't been as effective as expected, and the Cardinals, at least, look to be better. It's important to not lose sight of the big picture, which is that four weeks doesn't mean as much as years of data. However, four weeks is greater than three or two or one, and we need to acknowledge that what we're seeing might actually be real.
Saturday:
Arizona -111, one unit. Fading Carlos Silva.
Chicago (AL) +138, one unit. John Danks isn't the most underrated pitcher in baseball, but he's on the short list. This is an excellent line, even against the Yankees.
Houston +153, one unit. It's a big enough number to get me back on the Wandy Train one more time.
New York (NL) +195, one unit. I'm really on the fence with this one, because I don't buy the Mets' resurgence. I do, however, buy Mike Pelfrey, so that carries the day. Pelfrey is on his way to a very big year.
Milwaukee -120, one unit. I'm not the world's biggest Mat Latos fan, and I get the better pitcher and better team at a good price.