Daddy's in the black.

New York (NL) +119. The Cubs' bullpen gives it up reliably, like that girl from the second floor of your freshman dorm. However, I do need to take a more careful look at Randy Wells, who may be better than I've been giving him credit for.

Toronto -114. The Royals aren't very good. Brandon Morrow is.

Los Angeles (AL) -176. The Angels didn't exactly abuse Dontrelle Willis, winning more because Joel Piniero got a lot of ground balls than for anything their lineup did. I still say Willis is in trouble the first time he faces a team that doesn't visibly twitch when taking consecutive pitches.

Here's an important lesson I've learned in the first few weeks: positive reinforcement is important. As much as I know about variance and sample sizes, I was pretty thrown by the 2-12 start to the season. The discussions in the threads here helped keep me focused, even sane. That's more important that you might think; you need to have some level of confidence to publish plays--or make bets, as the case may be--when you're getting waxed.

There will be swings--we're on an up one now--and it's critical to not change methodologies off of short-term results. You can change over the long haul based on real information. You can't change just because of results. Thanks for the support.

New York (NL) -105, one unit. RIght now, Pelfrey is the better starting pitcher between him and Carlos Zambrano, and as ever, I'm happy to fade the Cubs' bullpen if I think the game will be close.

Chicago (AL) +100, one unit. John Danks is underrated, and this line is, I believe, overly influenced by the last two weeks of play. It would have been CHW -120 on Opening Day.

Oakland +143, one unit. I'm not sure if Gio Gonzalez is for real, but I'll take my chances with the home dog against Javier Vazquez right now. The A's should be slightly improved with the return of Mark Ellis.