Split a couple of one-run games yesterday:

Colorado -107. Aaron Cook was less effective than expected, coughing up an early 3-0 lead. The Brewers' bullpen was effective, something that isn't likely to happen for 162 games. If they don't play as expected, the Rockies may end up an early test of my ability to stick with my analysis in the face of losses.

Florida -118. This line shot up after I posted the game. Since I'm not doing this for reals, I'm not line-shopping, and if I post a line that looks favorable at the time you read it, trust me it's not because I'm shading these.

When a 0-6 start to the season seemed like a possibility, I started thinking about using it as a teaching moment. I picked two games a day in the season's first three days, which would get us to about 360 games over the course of the season. Thinking of picks like times at bat, my 0-6 is like an 0-for-6 for some fourth outfielder who plays a decent amount, Ryan Spilborghs or Willie Harris or someone of their ilk. When those guys go 0-for-6 over three days, it doesn't mean anything; it doesn't mean anything here, either. I'd say that if I were 5-1 or 6-0, and I'll say it during the inevitable 12-3 run. This is completely and totally about the long term, just like a baseball season.

For today:

Cincinnati -110. The gap between the Cardinals and Reds is less than what is perceived, but the real reason for this is Tony LaRussa, bless his heart, has a longstanding habit of playing the bench in a getaway day game, and that's the case today in Cincy, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Bernie Miklasz, via Twitter, last night. Throw in having the better starter--I'll fade Brad Penny for the moment, thanks--and this is the best play on the board.

Kansas City -118. Dontrelle Willis is no longer a major-league pitcher.  That's all I've got.

It's not two a day by plan, that's just the way it's working out. I looked at the Twins/Angels under 9.5, but stayed away.