I'm going to start a project here--FOR FUN--of making daily selections on games based on the lines. I'll get into a deeper explanation in a subsequent post, but basically, I've always been curious as to whether performance analysis can be applied to make money. I'm curious as to whether there are people out there doing so already, and wonder if there's a book in the idea, in the same way that Chad Millman explored college basketball wagering for a season in The Odds.

Let's make something clear from the start: this is for fun, and I'm not recommending you go out and do anything illegal, or for that matter, legal. I'm just trying to apply my knowledge of baseball over the course of the season to see if someone who has a particular knowledge set has any advantage over the linesmakers.

All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.

Today's picks:

Washington +183. I'm of the opinion that only in rare cases is one team greater than a 65/35 favorite to win an individual baseball game, so you'll find a lot of these types of games in the mix. The home Nationals are throwing a lefthander against the lefty-heavy Phillies. This line is too high, an overreaction to the perceived gap between the teams and to Roy Halladay pitching.

Cincinnati +130. The true gap between Aaron Harang and Chris Carpenter is lower than is indicated by this line, and as you know from reading my preview, I'm higher on the Reds than most.

That's it for today. There will be some days with more and some with less, and I'll generally make this post earlier than just before gametime.