An increasingly popular means of betting on baseball involves wagering on the season-long win totals for various teams. Pete Schoenke runs an annual piece here at Rotowire with his picks, and I've done so for a few years running at Baseball Prospectus. (Pete and I usually have a side bet, or as I like to call it, "My annual free lunch at Corner Bistro.") I don't think these bets have a ton of value, as the higher juice (they seem to be based off a 15-cent line in most places) and six-month float pick away at the value you might find. On the other hand, if you're looking for a bet that provides six months of rooting interest, this is about as good as it's going to get.
With this in mind, let's take a look at the best selections given my predicted won/lost records for each team. I've pulled the lines from Pinnacle, out of habit as much as anything, and I don't think they will differ much from what you find elsewhere online or in Nevada. I'm pretty surprised by how much of my work matches the linemakers' view of things: 20 of the 30 teams have lines set within three wins of my predictions, and just five fall outside of a 5.5-win gap
Team | Joe | Pinnacle | Difference |
60 | 72.5 | 12.5 | |
64 | 74.5 | 10.5 | |
94 | 85 | 9 | |
82 | 75.5 | 6.5 | |
86 | 79.5 | 6.5 |
So I feel very confident recommending that you put your money on the Royals under, the Astros under and the Rockies over. If you're feeling frisky, take shots at the Ohio teams over.
And if you make a few bucks, I'm happy to take my thanks in the form of bacon cheeseburgers in the Village.