TIER 1

1. Albert Pujols – A no-brainer and the safest fantasy pick out there.

TIER 2

2. Ryan Howard – He's averaged 49.5 homers and 143 RBI over the past four seasons. And remember, his career BA is .279, so he's not necessarily a killer in that category.

3. Miguel Cabrera – While he has yet to have a truly monstrous campaign he's fully capable of, remember Cabrera is still just 26 years old. And if he really did stop drinking alcohol altogether, maybe he reaches his potential in 2010. Normally I shy away from stories like that, but in this case, it may really prove to matter.

4. Prince Fielder – I'd fault no one for ranking Fielder as the No. 2 first baseman, as this tier is tightly grouped together.

5. Mark Teixeira – Again, you could reverse this tier and few would complain. If you don't get a top-three pick this year, hope for one late.

TIER 3

6. Joey Votto – I love Votto as much as anyone, but realize he's probably due for a bit of a regression after posting a .373 BABIP last season, and he's not going to come cheap.

7. Kendry Morales – He's probably less safe than Adrian Gonzalez or Justin Morneau since he's only had one successful MLB season, but nothing in his profile suggests last year was a fluke, and at age 26, his best is probably yet to come, even if he takes a small step back in 2010. He should move higher in the batting order this season (most of his ABs were from the sixth spot in 2009) and having Bobby Abreu hitting in front of him is pretty ideal. 

8. Adrian Gonzalez – Hard to find any fault in such an impressive 2009 performance, but this is far more of an indictment of his situation than his ability. Even with 40 homers, he failed to reach 100 RBI last year, and it will be awfully tough to repeat in the power department playing half his games in Petco. And with that lineup, expect his walks to continue increasing. A trade is possible, but he's signed at an affordable price through 2011, so it's not a guarantee.

9. Justin Morneau – Not a bad fallback option. Morneau has averaged 118 RBI over the past four years (and he missed nearly 30 games last season), although he lacks HR upside compared to the other first basemen listed above him here (he's never reached 35 homers in a season). His OPS has dropped after the All-Star break each of the past five years (134, 9, 242, 72, 252 points), so maybe there's further upside if Morneau somehow stays healthy over a full season and stops that trend. The new outdoor stadium in Minnesota is a wild card.

TIER 4

10. Lance Berkman – He's averaged 36 home runs with 115 RBI over the past three years before last season, and 25 HRs and 80 RBI over 460 at-bats isn't exactly a disaster. A non-sexy option perceived as on the downside of his career, Berkman is a pretty good target in 2010.

11. Kevin Youkilis – One of the better hitters in baseball, but Youkilis has missed an average of 19 games over the past three seasons, and he's never appeared in 150 contests during his career. In a way, that makes him more valuable in leagues with decent replacement options – putting up elite production in fewer opportunities, but it's also unlikely he starts exhibiting better durability now on the wrong side of 30. Of some concern is that his strikeout rate took quite a jump in 2009.

12. Derrek Lee – With a .972 OPS, Lee was one of the best hitters in baseball last season. The 35 homers were somewhat surprising, but if his wrist injuries are finally behind him, don't necessarily chalk up the renewed power as a fluke either. With as strong of an option as Lee rated this low, it's pretty clear it's OK to wait on the 1B position. 

13. Billy Butler – After the All-Star break last season, Butler hit 13 homers with 55 RBI while posting a .314/.385/.540 line. He's a natural born hitter with fast improving plate discipline (18:18 K:BB ratio during September). He remains pedestrian against right-handers, but his 51 doubles last season were the second-most in all of baseball, suggesting a spike in home runs are surely in store. I really wouldn't have much of a problem if you wanted to move him to the top of this tier.

14. Adam Dunn – Same old story, huge power that typically comes relatively cheap since he's such a huge BA risk. Dunn's .267 average last season was his career-high.

15. Carlos Pena – Similar to Dunn, only a bigger injury risk. It wouldn't shock if Pena finished with the most homers in the American League someday, but with all those strikeouts, he's going to hurt your batting average.

TIER 5

16. Adam LaRoche – It's weird he always gets off to such slow starts, but ultimately the numbers typically end up solid. The move to Chase Field should really help.

17. Chris Davis – Davis has prodigious power, and he'll definitely come cheaper after disappointing last season. There's 40-homer potential here, but Justin Smoak looms large in the minors, and Davis' 150:24 K:BB ratio in fewer than 400 at-bats last season is positively staggering.

18. Todd Helton – Twenty homers is now his ceiling, but few players likely to bat .330 will come so cheap. Still, he remains an injury-risk, and Jason Giambi should spell him more than any other backup has during any point in Helton's career.

19. Paul Konerko – He's clearly in decline, but 25 homers and 85 RBI can still be expected. Partially because he's so slow, Konerko has averaged just 68 runs scored over the past three seasons (and has never reached 100 during his 14-year career).

20. James Loney – Loney supposedly put on some muscle this offseason and anticipates hitting more homers as a result, but until it happens, he remains a typically overrated fantasy commodity.

TIER 6

21. Nick Johnson – If he's placed second in the Yankees' lineup, with that OBP, only health could prevent 125 runs scored. And as a lefty, the stadium should really boost his modest power numbers. Playing exclusively as DH should help prevent injuries as well.

22. Jorge Cantu – Maybe this is too low, as I let the fact Cantu isn't a very good real life player cloud my judgment.

23. Troy Glaus – He's not eligible here yet, and maybe it doesn't make sense ranking him as a 1B since he'd have more value as a 3B (and I ignored others who have dual eligibility too), but Glaus is playing first base for the Braves this season. There might not be a cheaper source of 35-homer potential.

24. Garrett Jones – He was unbelievably good for the Pirates last season, but I'd remain cautious. His minor league track record suggests a major correction is inevitable.

25. Aubrey Huff – As a Giants fan, I'm obviously not overly thrilled with the acquisition, but Huff did post a .912 OPS just two years ago. And he's moving to the easier league and is slated to hit cleanup, so maybe he becomes worthy in fantasy leagues.