Over the last couple years, there was no faster way to get a Timberwolves fan mad at you than to ask one simple question: what makes Al Jefferson different from Zach Randolph? Both are great low-post scorers that can give you 20 and 10 but the production doesn't seem to translate to wins. Both are black holes on offense that don't pass much, and neither would know defense if it stepped into their faces and introduced itself. Timberwolves fans wanted Jefferson to be the next Kevin Garnett, so if you called him instead the next Zach Randolph? Ooh, that would get them hot.
"Jefferson is nothing like Randolph!", they'd say. "Jefferson is the best young low-post scorer in the NBA, Randolph shoots more jumpers!" "Jefferson has never had off-court issues like Randolph!" "Randolph has knee issues, no coach would take him over Big Al!"
But this year...right now...is it still an insult to Timberwolves fans for Big Al to be compared to Randolph? Randolph is the centerpiece of a shockingly good Grizzlies team. Randolph has a big groundswell of support to be an All Star this year. And now, Jefferson is the one coming off of major knee surgery. In fact, which of these two would you rather have on your favorite team? What about on your fantasy team?
For this season alone there's really no argument: Randolph has been better. He is scoring a bit more on better percentages, grabbing more rebounds, and playing Jefferson to a relative standstill in the other categories (dead even in assists and steals, Jefferson with 0.6 more blocks per game). The advanced stats bear this out, with Randolph posting the higher PER, much higher ORTG, slightly lower DRTG, but almost twice as many win shares. This is also shown in the fantasy rankings, where Randolph is currently #27 on the season by average vs Jefferson's #55 according to the Yahoo player rater.
None of that is especially shocking, though, as Jefferson started the season only about seven months removed from surgery to replace a torn ACL. He visibly wasn't himself, and took a while to play himself into shape. What does the comparison look like over the last month?
Short answer: the last month looks exactly like the rest of the season. Randolph's advantages in every category are almost the same with the exception of field goal percentage, where both are at 51|PERCENT| for the last month. Jefferson has picked it up, but Randolph has as well by almost the same amount. Plus, Randolph's Grizzlies look like they are revving up for a potential playoff run while Jefferson's Wolves are already counting lottery balls. Randolph is the centerpiece of a team with other big offensive stars, meaning that defenses can't focus on him. Jefferson is about the only offensive option for the Wolves, but since he isn't getting any more attempts than Randolph that works as a negative because defenses can focus entirely on stopping him. Put that all together, and for my fantasy team I would have to pick Randolph.
On my real team, though? I think I would still prefer Jefferson. Both are fairly young, but Jefferson at 25 still has upside while Randolph is pretty much who he will be as he nears 30. Also, Jefferson is taller and has shown the ability to block a couple of shots per game. His defense is poor, but at least theoretically it could still get better. So Wolves fans, I still would rather have your guy than Randolph moving forward...but it's about time for you to admit that Jefferson may very well be Randolph version two, and even if that doesn't equal Garnett it isn't a terrible thing if you put the right talent around him.