1. Pittsburgh Steelers
It's not often you find a team as dominant as the Steelers with such a shaky offensive line, but the defense can carry this team, and it's also safe to expect a better season from Ben Roethlisberger – the separated shoulder he suffered in Week 1 last year was a big reason for the huge drop in YPA. The running game doesn't look dangerous, but that didn't prevent Pitt from winning the Super Bowl last year. Mike Tomlin is a terrific coach, and while teams will be gunning for the defending champs, it would be a surprise if the Steelers aren't contenders again in 2009. Only a serious Roethlisberger injury can prevent it from happening.
2. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens lost Rex Ryan and Bart Scott during the offseason, but the additions of Michael Oher and Matt Birk should help, as should the continued maturation of Joe Flacco. John Harbaugh has all the makings of a very good head coach, but Ryan's loss could prove serious, and with more tape available, Flacco may end up taking a step backward before forward. Still, this is a very good football team, and with the plan to get Ray Rice more involved, the offense should be improved. Baltimore is the best AFC team I don't have making the playoffs, and that decision was far from easy.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals played sneaky good defense toward the end of last season, and with a healthy Carson Palmer combined with a dedicated Chad Johnson and Chris Henry, this team should be greatly improved in 2009. Getting Andre Smith signed earlier would have helped (as would have shedding 40 pounds), as the offensive line remains a problem. If Bernard Scott can improve his blocking, don't be shocked if he eventually becomes a better RB than Cedric Benson. Two side notes: How cool is the Palmer brothers' Web site? And "Hard Knocks" is a great show. I still refuse to believe Liev Schreiber is the narrator though. I pride myself on knowing voices you can't see on TV, but I swung and missed here.
4. Cleveland Browns
Didn't Cleveland learn its lesson with former Patriot coaches already? I guess anyone with a pulse qualifies as an upgrade over Romeo Crennel. Still, I don't care if the starting quarterback is Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn or this guy, the Browns are in a whole lot of trouble this season. Braylon Edwards will probably bounce back, but put a fork in Jamal Lewis, he's done. And Cleveland fans just have to hope last season's regression by Joe Thomas was a one-year thing. I hate picking the AFC North in the exact same order as last year, but I promise I'll make it up to you with my NFC predictions.