1. New England Patriots

The Patriots lost Tom Brady seven minutes into the season last year, yet still went 11-5. Without a doubt, I'd take Bill Belichick ahead of any player in the NFL if starting a franchise. Still, it's worth noting just how easy New England's schedule was last year, something that shouldn't be the case in 2009. Their division is pretty weak, however, so they are the huge favorites. The defense should be better with improvements in the secondary, and the front seven got a lot younger fast. The offensive line is a question mark, and it's reasonable to expect Brady not to reach his past level of performance until the second half of the season. The team still doesn't have a featured running back, but that means nothing. There's simply no reason not to consider the Pats the Super Bowl favorites.

2. New York Jets

With a fantastic offensive line, a defense that has potential to be really good (although that may not be apparent right away, learning a new system and without Calvin Pace for the first four games), the Jets are probably better than many people think. Rex Ryan will be a massive upgrade over Eric Mangini, and while no one should expect 31-year-old Thomas Jones to repeat last year's performance, if that means Leon Washington gets 100 more touches, New York will be better off. The receiving corps is a problem, but Dustin Keller is a fine target at tight end. It would be unfair to ask Mark Sanchez to put up a Matt Ryan (or even Joe Flacco) type rookie season, especially with his lack of experience starting in college, but he won't be asked to make a bunch of plays, and the Jets could surprise. 

3. Buffalo Bills

While firing your offensive coordinator a week before the season starts can't be considered a good thing, it's better than keeping one who isn't working out well. Buffalo doesn't have a very good defense, and the offensive line is a huge question mark, starting a different player at all five positions from last year. Terrell Owens and Lee Evans look good on paper, as does the hurry up offense, but it all comes down to Trent Edwards' development. The battle for last place with Miami should come down to the end of the season.

4. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins weren't as bad as their 1-15 record indicated in 2007, but Miami certainly isn't as good as last season's 11-5 mark suggests. Special teams has been a real problem, and neither Chad Pennington nor Ronnie Brown has ever turned in consecutive healthy campaigns during their careers. Ted Ginn could turn out to be a nice player, but he's hardly an ideal No. 1 WR, and don't be surprised if the team turns to Chad Henne over the second half of 2009.