Carl Crawford is a remarkable 25-for-25 on stolen base attempts this season, and dating back to last year, he's been successful on 34 consecutive tries. His 96-steal pace isn't going to last in 2009, and it looks like his days of hitting 15-18 homers are a thing of the past, but it's hard to argue with the current version of Crawford. Because the Rays' lineup is so much better than when he was a unanimous first round pick in fantasy leagues, Crawford should also threaten career-highs in runs scored and RBI as well.
Roy Halladay was the best pitcher in major league baseball last season and should have won the Cy Young over Cliff Lee (who was also fantastic). Halladay's 1.053 WHIP and 5.28:1 K:BB ratio led all of baseball in 2008, and although Lee had a slightly better ERA (2.54 to 2.78), Halladay's xFIP was much better (3.23 to 3.69), mainly because Lee was so lucky with a 6.0|PERCENT| HR/F rate. Halladay also threw 22.2 more innings, and although he benefited from a good defense behind him, Halladay's opposing batters posted a collective .766 OPS, which was the second highest mark in baseball, while Lee's opposition ranked 50th, meaning "Doc" had a significantly tougher schedule. My point? I didn't take my own advice, leaving Halladay outside my top-five SP rankings entering 2009, fearful his big K rate increase wasn't sustainable. Big mistake, as Halladay continues to roll, with a ridiculous 7.13:1 K:BB ratio and an MLB-best 2.60 G/F ratio. While wins are unpredictable and a shaky stat to chase, Halladay's ability to keep his pitch count down and work deep into games makes him more likely to pick up a W. Because of his good, not great strikeout potential, Halladay may not have the upside of a Tim Lincecum, but he's safe to count on as a top-three fantasy starter, and his continued brilliance deserves praise, even from a foolish analyst like myself who managed to draft him in zero of my seven leagues.
Jordan Zimmermann currently sports a 6.35 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, and since he pitches for the Nationals, wins figure to be a problem as well. Still, his 8.47 K/9 IP mark is excellent, as is his 2.91:1 K:BB ratio, so he's thrown better than the cosmetic stats indicate. Two of his last three starts have come against the Dodgers and Phillies, who rank No. 1 and No. 2 in runs scored among National League teams. Zimmermann posted a 20:2 K:BB ratio over 14.1 innings during spring, and his average fastball velocity (93.3 mph) ranks in the top-15 among all starters in baseball. He's got an unlucky BABIP (.354) and strand rate (.587) with an impressive G/F ratio (1.28), so he's a good buy-low target.
Speaking of low, can Chris Young get any worse? Coming off a second half in which he hit .278/.343/.508 with nine homers and nine steals last season, he was one of my favorite targets for 2009, especially with the advantage of Chase Field on his side. With a .521 OPS and a 38:8 K:BB ratio over 129 at-bats, I look spectacularly wrong. Even if he wasn't particularly good for the Diamondbacks while doing so, he's just one year removed from a 32 HR/27 SB campaign as a rookie, and at age 25, Young is supposed to be improving, not regressing. There's still time for him to turn it around, of course, but it's hard to blame his terrible start on a .225 BABIP, as a whopping 46.9|PERCENT| of his flyballs have remained in the infield, which is nearly 10|PERCENT| more than the next highest. Also, with RISP, Young has posted a .321 OPS with a 17:0 K:BB ratio over 28 at-bats, so he can't exactly be confused with clutch. With Gerardo Parra off to a fast start, Young may actually be ticketed to the minors once Conor Jackson returns.
I was all set to hype Jorge De La Rosa after he posted a 22:1 K:BB ratio over two starts, but then he was clobbered for seven runs while walking five against the Braves on Wednesday. While it looks like inconsistency and command problems are still issues with the southpaw, any pitcher with an 8.89 K/9 IP mark over the last two seasons can't be ignored, although obviously the Coors Field factor hurts. De La Rosa won't show up high on your player rater free agent list because poor run support has him still searching for win No. 1, but that two-game, 22:1 K:BB stretch reveals a possible difference maker available on plenty of waiver wires.
What is wrong with Garrett Atkins? His OPS has dropped for three straight years, currently bottoming out at .568 despite calling Coors Field home. At age 29, Atkins should be in the middle of his prime, yet his trends are all going the wrong way, and it would be a shame if 2006 goes down as his career-year, something that looks increasingly likely. His contact rate remains in line with his career norm, and his current .208 BABIP ranks fourth worst in all of baseball, so he has been unlucky. Still, his LD|PERCENT| (13.6) is nearly a full 10|PERCENT| lower than his career average, so luck is hardly solely to blame, and it wouldn't be a shock to later find out he's hurting physically. Atkins is now losing playing time to Ian Stewart, is terrible defensively (-12.5 UZR/150) and has a career .736 OPS away from Coors Field, so it's safe to call his career progression a pretty big disappointment.
Over his last three games, Mark Reynolds has three homers and five steals, putting him on pace to finish 2009 with 45 homers and 36 steals. The SB outbreak is a surprise, since his season-high is 11 set last year, but he has been successful on 83|PERCENT| of his attempts during his career, so maybe he'll continue to increase his activity on the base paths. Reynolds has the most strikeouts in the NL (51) after breaking the MLB-record with 204 Ks last season, so even his modest .257 batting average is likely to decline. Still, with Chad Tracy struggling mightily, and Conor Jackson allergic to homers, Reynolds' playing time is secure, despite him "leading" all of baseball in errors in 2008. With a home park that ranks second only to the new Yankee Stadium as far as producing long balls, Reynolds could hit 40 this season, making him Ryan Howard-lite.