Between 1981 and 1989, the Lakers went to the NBA Finals in every season except for one. The lone exception was in 1986, when an upstart Rockets team used dominant interior play to control the series and topple the mighty Lakers. Could history repeat itself this season?
The odds would tell us no. The Lakers have been heavily favored to make it back to the NBA Finals since before the season even began, and they entered the postseason as prohibitive favorites to meet up with the Cavaliers to decide this year's championship. Led by one of the best perimeter players in the NBA in Kobe Bryant, sporting one of the best frontcourts in the NBA in Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom, and coached by one of the winningest coaches in NBA history these Lakers have very few weaknesses on paper. They also swept the regular season match-up with the Rockets, winning all four games by an average of 13 points per game. The Rockets won game one of the playoff series, but is there any reason to expect that this wasn't just a fluke? Could the Rockets really beat the Lakers in a series? Here are five reasons why they could.
1) Yao can win the paint against Bynum, Gasol and Odom. Though Bryant is the best player on the Lakers, a big part of what makes them a dominant team is their big-man advantage. Gasol, Bynum and Odom are three extremely talented, extremely long, extremely difficult to defend players. Between them, they have the ability to score in bunches, pass enough to make the Lakers offense hum, and defend the paint against almost all challengers. But with all of that said, Yao Ming is one of the few that can still dominate them in the paint. Yao is so big that even the 7-0, 285 pound Bynum gives up about six inches and at least 30 pounds. Thus, Yao can still get just about whatever shot he wants on offense while preventing Bynum from getting where he needs to get on defense. The Lakers could adapt by sitting Bynum and going back to the Gasol/Odom frontline that has worked so well for them, but this would essentially cede the Rockets the paint on both ends, and the last time the Lakers did that in a series the Celtics ended up beating them by 39 points in the finale of the Finals.
2) Battier and Artest are best combo of perimeter/forward defenders in NBA. While Yao is the foundation for the Rockets, their team also relies heavily upon the defensive capabilities of Shane Battier and Ron Artest. I can't remember a combo of perimeter defenders this talented on one team since Scottie Pippen and Michael Jordan, but unlike the 90s Bulls, Battier and Artest are also backed by a 7-6 monster in the paint. As such, they can be even more aggressive on the perimeter and severely disrupt the wing play of the opposition. They are also perhaps the two best defenders in the NBA to match-up with Bryant, especially because...
3) Kobe has quietly become primarily a jump shooter. Bill Simmons did a good job of using free throw attempts to point out that Kobe doesn't drive to the rim as much as he used to, but we can take it further. According to 82games.com, 79|PERCENT| of Bryant's shots in 2008-09 were jumpers. In his MVP 2008 season Bryant shot 75|PERCENT| jumpers, in his first season without Shaq Bryant took 71|PERCENT| jumpers in 2005, and in 2004 Bryant took 66|PERCENT| jumpers. This trend also played out in crunch time, where in 2009 Kobe took 83|PERCENT| jumpers in the clutch as opposed to having only 69|PERCENT| of his shots as jumpers in the clutch back in 2004. In other words, while Kobe was an all-court shot creator and foul-drawer in his athletic prime he has increasingly become a jump-shooter as he has approached and surpassed his 30th birthday. Kobe is probably a better player overall now than he was in 2004, but his reliance on the jump shot makes his offense a bit more predictable which makes it easier for Artest and Battier to defend him. They can really play aggressive on the perimeter and get a hand up in his face, knowing that he is less likely to drive and that even if he does they have solid big guys defending the rim. As the Celtics showed last season, this may be the best way to make Kobe more human and minimize his impact on games.
4) Coach Adelman has locked horns with Phil Jackson before. If there is any coach in the NBA that should know how to prepare for a Phil Jackson led Lakers team featuring Kobe Bryant, it would be Rick Adelman. Adelman led his Kings teams to some epic battles against the Shaq/Kobe championship Lakers of the early 2000s, but this time he has the bonus of doing it with the dominant center and getting to avoid Shaquille O'Neal. Adelman knows how to defend the triangle, he knows all of Jackson's mind tricks, and he has prepared his team in crunch situations against Bryant before. As such, Adelman should be a boon for the Rockets in this series.
5) Attitude. In almost every way, the Rockets seem mentally prepared to be a nightmare for the Lakers. As a team they have already overcome the loss of their nominal best player to make it out of the first round of the playoffs for the first time since the Jordan years, so the pressure is off. Hardly anyone really expects them to beat the Lakers, so they are playing with house money which lets them be loose while for the Lakers, anything less than a title is a bitter disappointment which could tighten them up. And on an individual level, the Rockets simply aren't afraid of the mighty Lakers. This is epitomized by Artest, who not only isn't intimidated by Bryant but continues to actively call him out and go after him. Artest is maybe a little bit crazy, but in this case that is a good thing because his fearlessness has rubbed off on Yao and the other Rockets to the point where they really WANT to play and beat the Lakers. Contrast that with how some good teams last season wanted to avoid the Lakers at all costs, and you can see how the Rockets' mindset gives them a leg up in their hopes to take down Kobe and crew.
All of that said, Houston has one glaring weakness that makes me doubt their ability to beat the Lakers in a seven game series: they don't have a strong enough back-court. In all four regular season meetings this season, the Rockets entered the fourth quarter of the game within seven points of the Lakers and they actually had the lead in two of the games but the Lakers swept all four contests with an average win margin of 13 points. The reason for this is that the Lakers dominated the fourth quarters, outscoring the Rockets by an average of 12 points/fourth Q. When the game gets tight and both defenses clamp down, a team usually relies on their best perimeter player to create good shots either for their teammates or for themselves. The Lakers have that in Bryant, but the Rockets are missing the one player on their team that could reliably do it in Tracy McGrady. Yao is great and Artest is streakily good on offense, but neither one of them are creators off the dribble and that one Achilles heel may be enough to keep the Rockets from winning against the big boys.
Nevertheless, the Rockets are a strong team and if they can build enough of a lead early in games they may be able to replicate their just-good-enough fourth quarter from game one and hold on. Plus, as I mentioned above, much of Kobe's shot-creation these days is to set himself up for an open jumper...and since the Rockets have the best jumper-defenders in the business on their team, that may be enough to bring the Lakers crunch offense down to the Rockets level. If so, the NBA may be looking at 1986 all over again where the heavily favored Lakers have to watch from the sidelines as the Rockets march on to the next round.