We have been treated to one of the best first round playoff match-ups in NBA history this year, with the Celtics clinging to a 3 - 2 advantage over the Bulls.  Through five games we have had four overtime periods, four games decided on the last possession, several buzzer beaters, and a different hero every night.  On the Mike and Mike radio show this morning, they reported that there have been 84 ties and 85 lead changes (or vice versa) thus far in the series.  These two teams are about as evenly matched as is humanly possible, and the advanced stats from the regular season would have suggested this even entering the playoffs once you factor in the absence of Kevin Garnett. 

But while you would expect that losing a player of Garnett's caliber would affect any team, the traditional box score stats tell us that Glen Davis has given the Celtics almost exactly what one might have expected out of KG.  Take a look:

Garnett (08 - 09 season): 15.8 ppg, 8.5 bpg, 2.5 apg, 1.2 bpg, 1.1 spg, and 1.6 TOs in 31.1 minutes. 
Davis (08 - 09 playoffs): 17.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.2 bpg, 1.6 spg and 0.8 TOs in 41.2 minutes. 

Pretty similar, huh?  So if Davis is essentially giving the Celtics the same numbers that KG gives them (or even slightly less, when you factor in minutes played), why could the 41-win Bulls have already beaten the 62-win Celtics four games to one if just a few bounces had gone a different way while last year's Hawks never really had a chance to win a fourth game despite the series going the full seven?  The answer: still KG.

People always say that Garnett contributes in ways that don't show up in the box scores.  And this is true in the traditional individual box score stats, though many have eventually tired of hearing this and instead believe that KG is getting by on reputation (Gary Payton, I'm talking to you).  But thankfully, we now have other ways to analyze basketball besides just looking at the box scores.  And when you look further, it is blatantly obvious how Garnett's absence affects the Celtics.

Offense.  Depending on who you ask, some combo of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen or Rajon Rondo are the most important players to the Celtics' offense.  But the Garnett effect is that when KG is in there the squad functions as a cohesive unit where everyone is almost always involved, whereas when KG is out the team becomes much more about the individual. 

Garnett is the only person in the offense whose game naturally creates team-scoring opportunities with every other starter.   

KG runs a deadly pick-and-pop with Pierce where one of them is almost always open.  Rondo gets at least one layup per game from cutting to the rim off the KG post-up, and also the two had perfected the eye-contact alley-oop that was just as effective as the Chris Paul/Tyson Chandler combo last season.  KG's interior passing led to quite a few easy dunks for Kendrick Perkins, and when KG sets up in the post his passing sets Allen up for at least a couple open baseline trey attempts per game.   

This Garnett effect on offense shows up in the advanced team stats, where 82games shows us that the Celtics score more points at a higher effective field goal percentage with more team assists when Garnett is on the floor than when he is not.  But if you want to keep it traditional, you can also see it in the box scores of his Celtic teammates.  Last year against the Hawks, KG was the only Celtic averaging over 18 ppg, but there were four different Celts averaging at least 3.1 assists per and only Pierce (2.3 TOs) averaged more than 2.0 TOs.  Now look at this year against the Bulls, where four Celts are averaging at least 17.8 ppg (led by Rondo and Pierce at 24 ppg) but only Rondo is dishing at least three assists per night and three different Cs are over 2.0 TOs (led by Pierce at 3.4 TOs).  The team is scoring more points, but they are doing it as a group of talented individuals creating on their own instead of as a cohesive unit.  This leads to higher scores, but also a less efficient offense that can go through more cold spells when an individual isn't feeling brilliant.

Defense.  Despite the fact that Garnett won the 2008 Defensive Player of the Year, there are many that felt that the Celtics' outstanding team defense was due at least as much to Assistant Coach Tom Thibideau with thoughts that Rondo, Perkins and Pierce especially were underrated on defense as well.  What we have seen in Garnett's absence, though, is that without KG the Celtics' defense goes from historically good to average at best.  On the court, this is due to Garnett's ridiculous ability to lock down his own man while disrupting any pick-and-roll and still roving to prevent opposing wings from driving to the rim, then ultimately getting back to grab the rebound.  This allows Rondo to go for steals without the risk of getting burnt, it allows Pierce and Allen to press up on their man on the perimeter secure in the knowledge that they won't get beat off the drive, and it allows Perkins to lock down his man on the interior and go for weakside blocked shots without having to worry about crashing the boards every time.

Again, this Garnett effect shows up in the advanced team stats as 82games shows us that the Celtics give up 7.3 more points per 48 minutes when KG is off the floor.  And again, this effect can be seen just as easily by looking at the team box score numbers.  Last year the Hawks averaged only 87.1 ppg against the Celtics in the playoffs after averaging 98.2 ppg for the season.  Their starting backcourt of Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby as well as their starting power forward Josh Smith all averaged fewer points on MUCH worse EFG|PERCENT| in the postseason.  This year the Bulls are averaging 106.2 ppg against the Celtics in the playoffs after averaging only 102.2 ppg for the season.  Their starting backcourt of Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon and their starting power forward Tyrus Thomas are averaging more points on similar/slightly lower EFG|PERCENT| in the postseason.  The overtimes factor into the higher team scoring average, but the fact that the Bulls are scoring almost 20 ppg more against the Celtics than last year's Hawks despite similar team scoring averages in the regular season is a glaring example of where Garnett is missed.

Bottom line: This is another case where advanced stats and analysis can clearly paint a picture that doesn't show up by just looking at the individual box scores.  We all knew that KG's absence was key despite Big Baby's good play, but with a little digging we now see exactly why.  Garnett's absence isn't about subtracting/replacing individual numbers, it is instead about changing the entire way that the Celtics play the game at both ends of the court.  The team concept of Ubuntu, an African word symbolizing unity, is epitomized entirely by Garnett.  Without him, the Celtics degenerate from a strong cohesive unit to a group of several talented individuals. Some have speculated that with Pierce and Allen being Hall of Fame-worthy and Rondo now ascending to All Star caliber, the Celtics could still be championship contenders without Garnett.  Now, we know exactly what the Celtics would be without Garnett: the Chicago Bulls.