1. Minnesota Twins
Hitting: In one of the toughest divisions to predict, the Twins enter 2009 with a bunch of health questions. Joe Mauer is the team's most important player, and his ability to recover will be paramount. Justin Morneau isn't as good as MVP voters suggest, but he's capable of further growth, especially in the power department. While no big names exist, the team's outfield should be a plus. Jason Kubel should be a big help against righties, and it's possible Delmon Young finally breaks out. Carlos Gomez isn't going to be an asset at the plate, but he might already be baseball's best defensive center fielder.
Pitching: The team's strength, led by their front three of Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker, who can hopefully get healthy fast. Nick Blackburn is an average No. 4, and the bullpen does have question marks after Joe Nathan. Still, the front three are all legit, even if the old Liriano isn't ever coming back. Slowey might be the favorite to finish with the best K:BB ratio in major league baseball.
2. Chicago White Sox
Hitting: With shaky pitching in an extreme hitter's park, the offense must carry Chicago in 2009. With Dewayne Wise and Chris Getz set to hit atop the order, that prospect looks bleaker. Still, there's a lot to like in the heart of the lineup, as Paul Konerko should bounce back, and Jim Thome remains one of the game's better hitters. There's also Carols Quentin and Jermaine Dye in a walk year. Alexei Ramirez's development will be key as well.
Pitching: John Danks is for real, but at least based off last year, Gavin Floyd most certainly is not. Moreover, Mark Buerhle has been dealing with a mysterious arm issue this spring. Jose Contreras beat the timetable for his return to the mound, but relying on him and Bartolo Colin is a risky proposition at this stage of their careers. The bullpen should definitely be a strength.
3. Cleveland Indians
Hitting: The Indians are certainly capable of winning this division, but they'll need Travis Hafner to return to form for it to happen, something that looks highly unlikely. The middle infield looks solid, but the team overpaid for Mark DeRosa's career-year. Expect Victor Martinez to rebound in a big way, and Grady Sizemore is one of the AL's most valuable players.
Pitching: A huge problem. Cliff Lee wasn't all smoke and mirrors last season, and he should remain the team's ace. However, he's been bad this spring, and a natural regression seems likely. Fausto Carmona has posted a 2.67 ERA this spring, but that's been accompanied by a 13:8 K:BB ratio over 27 innings, so expect his 2009 to look more like last year than his brilliant 2007 performance. Carl Pavono, Scott Lewis and Anthony Reyes? Please. Kerry Wood upgrades the closer position, but that's not going to make a big difference.
4. Detroit Tigers
Hitting: Talk about lowering expectations compared to entering last season. No 1,000 runs scored predictions have occurred this spring. Miguel Cabrera should turn into the AL's best hitter this year, but after Curtis Granderson and Magglio Ordonez, there's no longer much to get excited about with this lineup.
Pitching: Justin Verlander probably won't be as bad as he was last year, but with a 16:15 K:BB ratio over 32 innings this spring, it's clear further struggles are in store. What a huge disappointment. Armando Galarraga was one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball in 2008, so expect him to come crashing down to earth this season. All those sliders have ruined Jeremy Bonderman's career, and while Rick Porcello has a bright future, he's unlikely to be of much help in 2009. The team had to lie just to get Dontrelle Willis on the DL. Don't be shocked if Ryan Perry collects saves in Detroit's pen at some point.
5. Kansas City Royals
Hitting: It's understandable why there's some optimism for Kansas City, but that outlook shouldn't be applied to 2009. Expect some nice progression from Billy Butler and Alex Gordon this year, and Mark Teahen could prove to be one of the league's better hitters at second base. Still, with Mike Jacobs at first, Teahen at second and Gordon at third, the defense should be absolutely brutal.
Pitching: Zack Greinke has been roughed up this spring, but he could easily develop into one of the top 15 starters in major league baseball this year. Gil Meche has surprisingly earned his contract, but the rotation falls off a cliff after that. Kyle Davies was once viewed as a nice prospect in the Braves organization, and he impressed during September last year, so he can't be completely written off. Still, he's a long shot, while Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez form quite possibly the league's worst back-end of a rotation.