The NFBC drafts this weekend. In my main event league, Las Vegas 6, I've drawn the 15th slot (out of 15). It's not that bad of a slot - yes, it can hurt you in the first round, and it's a long time between picks, but you also can double-up on a category if need be, and create pockets of scarcity within the draft.
Last year, Scott Zeidman won our league drafting from the #14 slot in our league, and he had a risk-heavy strategy early, grabbing Albert Pujols and Johan Santana with his first two picks. He ended up getting production the equivalent of a much higher first-round pick from both.
Are there similar risk/reward players available for me at my slots? I think there are three players that might fit the category, at least for conversational purposes:
1. Chase Utley - Given that he's playing spring training games already, my guess is that Utley will get selected before my #15 pick arrives. If he's still available, that probably means that Ian Kinsler will be long gone. I almost certainly will take the chance on Utley and his hip if given that opportunity.
2. Alex Rodriguez - Unlike Utley and his hip surgery, A-Rod hasn't had the full corrective procedure done yet. And unlike Pujols last year, we have a known surgery already, and A-Rod is already sidelined. I'm less likely to take a stab here. Which means I won't get him - I can't imagine him being available with pick #45.
3. Tim Lincecum - If Lincecum repeats last year's performance, he'll absolutely be worth more than the #15 pick. But we always discount pitchers, more so with young pitchers coming off high workloads. I haven't decided if I'll take the plunge here, or instead go with a "safe" hitter.
What other "risky" picks would you consider there? Or, going the safe route, which hitters would you target?
We'll have Scott (aka Buster H, Esq. from CreativeSports.com) on Wednesday's show on BlogTalkRadio, live at 9:00 a.m. PT, or available afterward on demand or on a podcast. Perry VanHook from FantasyBaseball.com will also be on, at the bottom of the hour, to talk more NFBC.