I wouldn't mind Josh Johnson ending up on plenty of my teams this year. He returned from Tommy John surgery earlier than anticipated last season and saw an increase in velocity in doing so. His control still needs to improve, but his 7.94 K/9 IP mark and 1.56 G/F ratio reveal a lot of potential, especially from someone just returning from major arm surgery. Johnson also had a .332 BABIP against him, and it stands to reason he'll be even better the further he's removed from the operation. Still just 25, Johnson could really break out in 2009.
Chris Ray should prove to be one of the cheaper sources for saves this year. George Sherrill racked up 31 saves last year, but that was accompanied by a 5.57 BB/9 IP mark, leading to an ugly 1.50 WHIP. Baltimore is sure to leave him in the role as Ray eases back from arm surgery, but Sherrill is likely to get traded at some point, and Ray appears to still be the team's long-term answer in the ninth.
Maybe it's nothing, but it does sound like Joe Mauer's health issue is a big concern. His loss would be crushing to the Twins, while also significantly hurting Justin Morneau's fantasy value.
I'm not touching Mike Pelfrey this season. On the surface, it appeared he started to live up to his draft status (ninth pick in 2005) after May last year, finishing the following four months with ERAs of 3.52, 2.70, 2.93 and 4.06. He does have a potent Mets offense on his side, and it looks like the team is actually counting on him to be their No. 2 starter. However, a 4.93 K/9 IP mark just won't cut it, especially with his shaky command. Just 7.2 percent of his fly balls went over the fence, making him the fifth luckiest pitcher in baseball in that department. It comes as no surprise his xFIP was 4.70 – nearly a full run higher than his ERA. Pelfrey is still at the point in his career where he can grow as a pitcher, but his skills would need to dramatically improve for him to be considered in mixed fantasy leagues.
If I'm worried about Joe Mauer's health, consider me positively terrified of Cole Hamels. This is someone who was already an injury risk before tossing 262.1 innings last season – 72.1 more than in 2007. In fact, Hamels threw more pitches than any pitcher in baseball last year (3,914). His fastball/changeup combo is usually much safer than a hurler who throws a lot of sliders/curveballs, but this latest elbow concern is a major red flag. Stay away.
Daniel Cabrera, who was 0-for-14 with 14 strikeouts in his career with the bat, singled last week during a spring at-bat.
Despite continuing to battle oblique injuries, Wandy Rodriguez is someone to target in 2009. His walk rate has declined while his K rate has increased during each of the past three seasons. He fanned 66 batters over 62.1 inning after the break last year, and after posting huge home/road splits in 2007 (2.94 ERA vs. 6.37), that schism got closer last year (2.99 vs. 4.34), so don't be surprised if Rodriguez emerges as Houston's ace by the end of the season.