Willy Taveras believes that he can steal 100 bases this season. Is he crazy?

By some metrics, he's the best baserunner in the game, and his 91 percent success rate on stolen-base attempts in 2008 is elite when you consider that he took off 75 times for a total of 68 swipes. Still, 100 stolen bases hasn't happened in the National League since Vince Coleman did it for the third time in his career back in 1987.

The article above goes on to explain how Taveras believes that he'll receive 700 plate appearances during his first season with the Reds.  Even as a leadoff hitter in an improving Cincinnati lineup, it's a lofty expectation from a guy that has missed 94 games over the last two seasons. Some of the missed time was a mangerial decision from Clint Hurdle, but he's also dealt with a hamstring strain and a fracture in his tibia.

Let's break the numbers down a little bit. 700 plate appearances with a career .331 on-base percentage comes out to 232 times getting on base. He's walked in six percent of his career plate appearances, which would amount to 42 free passes in 2009 if the career norms hold up. He gets hit by a pitch roughly once in every 72 appearances, so for the sake math, let's round up say he'll get plunked 11 times this season.

232-(11+42) = 179 hits.

Taveras would have to be a .277 hitter to reach that total with his own projected number of plate appearances. He's a career .283 hitter coming back from .251 last season -- tied partially to a plumetting BABIP from .371 in 2007 to .298 a year ago. Some regression can be expected there, so .251 is unlikely, but I'm not willing to bet on .307 either.

Our projections have him tabbed for .261, but .277 isn't out of the question. In all of this, Taveras would have a .330 on-base percentage a mere bad bounce or two from his career .331 level.

Throw in the fact that manager Dusty Baker has shown ridiculous amounts of patience with the likes of Corey Patterson in the past, and it's a little bit easier to see where the optimism is coming from.

So, is he crazy? Debateably no.

Keep in mind, this is simply crunching the numbers. Taveras said he's going to emphasize bunting more to get on base -- which could potentially shift some numbers more into his favor. If he had replicated his stolen-base rates over 700 plate appearances last season, he would have finished with 89 steals.

But...he didn't finish with 89 steals because of the aforementioned health issues. Both of his more significant injuries in 2007-08 were leg related, which is discerning considering Taveras' skill set.

Further, Taveras' career success rate is closer to 82 percent than the 91 he achieved during his final season in Colorado. Racking up 100 steals with an 82 percent success rate will require 122 attempts.

Much like Juan Pierre and even Scott Podsednik a few years ago, Taveras will do nothing for you in the power categories. Another interesting comparison is looking at how many green lights Pierre received when Baker managed the Cubs in 2006. Pierre attempted 78 steals (the Cubs as a team ran 170 times) and was successful 58 times. If Taveras were to run as often as Pierre did a few years back and maintain his 2008 sucess rate, he'd finish at 71 steals, a much more reasonable ceiling for production.

If there's such thing as a safe bet for 50 steals, you could make a good argument that Taveras is the guy since he can reach that mark even with 500 plate appearances, but banking on anything more -- despite his predictions -- will likely leave you disappointed unless the stars align, his BABIP spikes, and he manages to stay healthy while pushing back towards his 2007 numbers rather than his 2008 ones.