I've been trying to figure out the best way to approach Al Jefferson's torn ACL which ended his season.
I could talk about how it is the next in a long-line of terrible luck for the Timberwolves, as he is now the latest member of the second year curse. The Timberwolves' last three lottery picks (Rashad McCants, Randy Foye, Corey Brewer) have all missed big chunks of their second year with the team due to knee injury, and now Big Al makes the fourth such case in the last three years. There's probably enough there for a story.
I could eulogize this season by looking more in-depth at the two comparisons that are most often made about Jefferson on Timberwolves message boards: Big Al vs. Zach Randolph (Most Wolves fans hate this comp), and Big Al vs. young Kevin Garnett (Most Wolves fans secretly love this comp, despite publicly proclaiming it unfair to Big Al). Big Al and Randolph shared very similar breakout-seasons at age 22, and now each has had a major knee injury interrupt the following season. Meanwhile, KG and Big Al had almost the exact same scoring/shooting/rebounding numbers at age 23, but KG's huge advantages as a passer and defender also are very clear as well. I could probably have made this its own blog as well.
Or, I could go into the silver lining view: the Wolves currently have 17 wins and 33 losses, a 28-win pace that is the 7th worst in the NBA. But they had been playing better of late and were only four games behind the Knicks for the 11th worst record in the NBA. That would have been an absolutely tragic place for the Wolves to finish, since they owe the Clippers a top-10 protected draft pick. So with Big Al sidelined, it looks very safe that the Wolves will get to add another lottery talent to their very talent-depleted team to fill one of their many holes...in theory this should be a good thing, right?
But ultimately, I decided that the best way to approach this is to talk about how Jefferson's injury affects the prospects for the Wolves' most recent lottery talent and hope for the future: Kevin Love. Love has been a very solid, but unspectacular rookie so far. But stat geeks like me have been pointing out for awhile that Love's per-minute and APBR-metric stats have been a lot more impressive than his 23 minute-per-game stats would indicate. Per 36 minutes, Love has averaged 14 points and 13 boards per game this season even playing next to scoring/rebounding monster Al Jefferson. Now, with Jefferson done for the year and Craig Smith out for the next two weeks with broken ribs, Love has been told to expect at least 35 minutes per game.
Per-36 minute numbers are by no means a guarantee of the numbers that someone will put up in bigger minutes...Love will be facing more competition in the starting line-up, he'll be facing teams that scheme for him, and it is questionable if Love is in good enough physical shape to even last 36 minutes per game for the rest of the season. All of that said, I like Love's potential from here in. I like it enough that I dropped Al Horford in a league so that I could pick Love up. I'm not expecting 14 and 13 from Love, but I do think he'll average double-digit rebounds and may even score more...maybe something like 17 and 11.
As an admitted Timberwolves fan, I'm definitely hoping that Love uses this opportunity to establish himself and accelerate his learning curve so that by next year, they have two beasts up front in addition to their draft picks to help make up for another wasted season. And in the meantime, it'd be nice if he ends up as a late-season impact player for my fantasy team as well.