Now that the NFL regular season is over, a lot of fantasy players are shifting their attention to baseball. In particular, I'm starting to think a lot about my keeper leagues, and the decisions I'll have to make with each league. Here's one that I've been going over quite a bit.
In addition to roto leagues, I play in <a href="https://www.scoresheet.com/baseball.php">Scoresheet Baseball</a>, my favorite simulation game. One of my leagues is a 24-team mixed league, BL DwMurphy. Murphy is a dynasty league - meaning that there are no salaries attached to the players, and length of contracts. It's a soft-eight league - we draft 35 players each year, but can only keep up to eight.
I joined it last year, taking over perhaps the worst team in the league, and while I made one pretty good deal in the rebuilding process (trading away David DeJesus for Matt Wieters), it's been a slow process otherwise. That's the nature of the beast - with only eight keepers (and no extra spots for minor leaguers), it's really hard to acquire good keepable talent. Sometimes the best currency to trade for in dump trades are draft picks for the upcoming season.
Anyhow, I'm pretty sure I've got six solid keepers, but I'm on the fence with the other two keeper slots, with three possible options, or the notion of taking a chance that there will be better talent in the draft with those two slots.
Keepers:
Dan Haren
Yovani Gallardo
Matt Wieters
Yunel Escobar
Manny Ramirez
Travis Snider (keep in mind, it's a dynasty league - I know he won't be all that productive this year)
The first questionable keep is Jacoby Ellsbury. A year ago, I thought that he might have been a no-brainer, but now I'm not so sure. Keep in mind that this is a simulation game, not roto, so his stolen bases mean less. His midseason slump and similar swan dive in the playoffs illustrate his downside. Because he doesn't hit for power, his offensive value is almost entirely tied into his OBP - and I don't think that he will get hurlers to pitch around him. He'll eventually do better than the .336 he produced in 2008, but I also don't see him getting up there among the elite. His defensive rating in Scoresheet last year was 2.14 - average OF is 2.10 - but average CF is higher. So he's not going to make up much for any offensive shortcomings with his glove. He's an interesting young player, but is he among the top 192 players in the game?
For the other spot, I'm looking at two pitchers:
"Pitcher A" had a 4.39 ERA, 147:75 K:BB in 166 IP in his rookie year, at age 25. He pitches in an NL park that is fairly neutral to hitters. He's had some issues staying healthy in the minors, but when healthy his numbers were fantastic - averaging over a strikeout per inning.
"Pitcher B" is 29 years old, and had a 3.54 ERA and 131:44 K:BB over 137.1 IP, losing some time to an oblique injury along the way. This was his fourth year in the majors, also pitching in the NL, albeit in a little bit more of a hitters park. Despite that, he's got a strong positive home split.
I could end up keeping both, giving me four SP among my keepers, but I'm not too comfortable building that way. Are either Pitcher A or Pitcher B keep-worthy to you?
Incidentally, the two pitchers are Manny Parra and Wandy Rodriguez. Parra is/was a trendy sleeper in some circles, whereas Rodriguez is more of a post-hype guy, and I've heard very little buzz about him. Yet, his stats look superior to Parra's. Can I count on him any more over the next three years?
With your final two spots, which two players of the three would you keep, if any?