We're at an exciting time in the NBA for many reasons, not the least of which is that we appear poised to usher in a crop of young centers with more collective potential than any group since Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing and David Robinson in the mid-to-late 80s. Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, and Greg Oden all have a chance to slide into those big shoes as the next Big thing. But which of them do you want on your fantasy team THIS year, and how much should you be willing to give up to get them?
Howard is most established of the trio, and the one most likely to put up huge numbers on any given night or for the season. He's also the one most likely to put a cape on in public and call himself Superman, but that isn't a fantasy category. Howard used his unworldly athleticism to average an absurd 14.2 rebounds per game last season as a 22 year old…more than Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O'Neal, or Tim Duncan have ever managed for a season. He also scored more than 20 points, blocked more than two shots, and shot 60% from the field. And Howard is also ridiculously durable, having never missed an NBA game in his career. Since he should still be getting better, he should be a top-5 pick in fantasy leagues, right? Not so fast, though. Howard also shot a paltry 59% from the line on a whopping 11 free throw attempts per game, which can absolutely kill your team's free throw percentage in a Shaq-like way. Thus, while the upside is beautiful, Superman's Kryptonite should be enough to give roto owners pause before calling his name in the first round. I'm not saying don't take him at the end of the first, I'm just saying to think long and hard before you do.
Bynum is arguably the most talked about young player in the NBA right now, because many see the 7-foot 20-year old as the missing piece to ushering in a new Lakers dynasty. While these Lakers obviously belong to Kobe Bryant and also sport talented players like Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom, Bynum tantalized the Lakers' faithful as well as fantasy owners with a strong first two months of the season before his year got cut short by a knee injury. Specifically, over his last 14 full games before the injury Bynum averaged about 17 points, 11 boards, almost 2.5 blocks, and shot a ridiculous 70% from the field. Also, Bynum is at least a non-toxic free throw shooter that hit almost 70% of his free throws last season. But Bynum is a bigger fantasy risk than Howard because of the uncertainty of his recovery from knee surgery, and also the uncertainty of his role now that Gasol has joined him and Odom in the frontcourt. Plus, Bynum has never shown that he can put up those big numbers over the long haul. So while Bynum has NBA elite potential, you should be able to get him in the early-middle rounds, after the less-risky elites have already come off the board.
And then, there is Oden. Oden has been generating mega NBA hype since he was in middle school, well before people were talking about Bynum or even Howard. He was the most sought after big man to enter the NBA draft since Tim Duncan more than a decade ago, and people expect him to quickly lead the Trailblazers into championship contention. But Oden has still never played a minute in the NBA, and his rookie season has been delayed by a year due to the dreaded microfracture knee surgery. Despite that, Oden has ridiculous upside. He has all of Bynum's height, most of Howard's explosive leaping ability, is bigger than either one of them, and has defensive instincts that just can't be taught. If he is healthy, it would not be at all surprising for Oden to average 15 and 10 with around three blocks per game as a rookie. And Oden looks healthy thus far in the preseason.
Overall, I expect Howard to put up the best numbers of the crew. But if I could get elite non-centers with my first two picks, I would be happy to get Bynum or Oden several rounds later who have similar upside at a higher risk, and at the least should give elite defensive big-man stats at the hard-to-fill center position. And setting fantasy aside, I can not WAIT to see how these three young giants make their mark on the league over the next several seasons.