About a month ago Kyle pointed out that Tim Duncan had returned to the consistent double-double threat that he had once been in yesteryear. Today, I am here to point out that Duncan's throw-back campaign has picked up speed and seems likely to continue to accelerate in the near-term. For the last month Duncan has averaged 21.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.9 blocks in 37.2 minutes per game. Duncan last averaged numbers like that for an entire season in 2004, and not coincidentally has not played that many minutes per game for a season since he won his last MVP in 2003.

The minutes are one of the keys to Duncan's re-improved production, but there are others. For one, the Spurs are not dominating this season the way that many expected them to. In fact, as of January 30 they are only 2.5 games ahead of the team in NINTH place in the Western conference. While nobody expects them to really miss the playoffs this year, the fact that a legitimate discussion could be held on the possibility speaks volumes. Also, the Spurs have been/are fighting key injuries, including the current absences of Tony Parker and Brent Barry, which causes them to have to rely more heavily upon the man once dubbed Groundhog Day.

I think that Duncan is a great trade-for prospect in the short term because he is currently out-producing his expectations, but here is the key question: will these increased minutes and production by Duncan continue for the second half of the season? Since there is the legitimate (and ridiculous) chance that 10 teams in the West could approach 50 wins this season, for the first time in recent memory Duncan and the Spurs may have to play at a higher level than anticipated for most of the season to ensure that there is a post-season to prepare for. This makes Duncan a great player to own for much of the second half of the year.

My only worry in fully endorsing Duncan as a "buy" candidate is that, presuming that Parker has returned to health and the Spurs have clinched their playoff position by early April I could definitely imagine Duncan scaling it way back over the last couple of weeks of the season to try to get fresh for the playoffs. Since those last couple of weeks corresponds to the fantasy playoffs, I would probably advise acquiring/holding Duncan until closer to your league's trade deadline then trying to trade him high then.

But that is my opinion. Anyone else have any thoughts on whether to buy, hold, or sell the Big Fundamental?