I'm obsessed with the regular season schedule. I've already written a monthly schedule analysis of the entire league, ranking teams from 1-30 based on seasonal value. It allows me to isolate preeminent schedule segments, especially useful towards the end of the regular season.
With both Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal expected to miss an extended period of time, let's dissect their teams' early-season schedule and provide a blueprint on how you can use it to your advantage.
Kevin Durant
Durant is expected to miss anywhere from 6-10 weeks with a Jones fracture in his right foot. Once he undergoes surgery, we'll have a better prognosis on his earliest return date. Let's break this down into 6-, 8-, and 10-week intervals
Durant's six-week hiatus coincides with the end of Week 4 of the regular season. This is the most aggressive timeline for his return, and I don't believe he'll meet that expectation. For argument's sake, let's say he returns. Below is the Thunder's schedule at that time of the season.
Were Durant to return in exactly six weeks, he would square off against the Golden State Warriors at home November 23rd. If there's one thing I've learned from watching the Philadelphia 76ers last season, injured players tend to return against weaker competition. Under that assumption, I'd say Durant returns during Week 5 against the Utah Jazz, a young team without a defender possessing Andre Iguodala's abilities. However, if you play in weekly leagues, two games during Week 5 adds caution to throwing him in your lineup with 100 percent certainty.
Below is a list of total games played for each team through the first four weeks of the regular season. Sadly, Oklahoma City plays a league-high 15 games (18.2 percent of their total schedule) in that short time frame. Six of those 15 games are quality games (games on nights with fewer than half the league playing), allowing you to roster and play Durant's replacements throughout the first four weeks. Week 3 and Week 4 encompass two quality games apiece. It also means you'll get a maximum of 68 games from Durant this season, assuming zero setbacks should he return the final game of Week 4. Again, this is an aggressive benchmark and my non-professional opinion believes he misses more time than the low-end six week diagnosis.
If Durant is only expected to miss 15 games, I'd still take him first overall in head-to-head leagues. The shortened timeline alleviates any concerns on my end. If I play in a league with an IR spot, then I'm definitely selecting Durant first overall given a six-week timeframe.
Durant's eight week intermission coincides with the end of Week 6 of the regular season. Below is the Thunder's schedule at that time of the season.
Were Durant to return in exactly eight weeks, he would square off against the Detroit Pistons on the road December 7th. As I mentioned in the six week section, returning against the Philadelphia 76ers on December 5th, two days premature of the eight week timeline, would be ideal for any player returning from injury. If the team wants Durant to sit out all eight weeks, his return wouldn't come until December 9th, at home against the Milwaukee Bucks, another equally weaker Eastern Conference opponent.
Below is a list of total games played for each team through the first six weeks of the regular season. Oklahoma City sits in the middle of the fray, playing 20 games (24.3 percent total). If Durant returns against the Sixers two days prior to the exact eight-week mark, he'll miss 18 games before he suits up. Should he delay his regular season debut into Week 7, Durant could only play a maximum 62 games. This is the most likely scenario, barring zero setbacks. The question then becomes, does the prospect of 62 regular season Durant games outweigh 76-82 games from guys like LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry, and James Harden?
Not only did Durant play 30 cumulative preseason minutes, but he opted out of playing on Team USA, calling into question his conditioning and rhythm upon his eventual return. At this point I've decided to knock Durant down my rankings. Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and James Harden are the only players I'm considering before Durant in a head-to-head league. Davis is the biggest question mark regarding his health, but both guys were one-two on my board prior to the MVP's setback. I'd prefer Davis first in drafts if Durant is expected to miss eight weeks.
Durant's 10-week reprieve coincides with the end of Week 8 of the regular season. Below is the Thunder's schedule at that time of the season.
The original timeline, pre-surgery, suggested Durant would miss 6-8 weeks. A follow-up report intimated the healing process could sideline him as many as 10 weeks. We'll have a clearer picture post-surgery, but a 10-week absence places Durant's return on December 21st at home against the New Orleans Pelicans. As I've touted the previous two segments, a return against the Kings or Lakers, projected defensive sieves, would provide Durant cushy harbor.
Below is a list of total games played for each team through the first eight weeks of the regular season. At this point in the season, Oklahoma City will have played 34.1 percent (28 games) of their schedule, including 11 quality games (second most). If Durant returns in exactly 10 weeks against the Pelicans, he could only play a maximum 55 games. It would probably come attached to a setback or two during the recovery process. We witnessed such occurrences with Russell Westbrook last season, previously the league's Iron Man. Westbrook sat out one game of every back-to-back set once he returned from his third knee operation in nine months. Durant would be returning right around Christmas. Oklahoma City plays 12 back-to-back sets from Christmas until the end of the regular season. It's a remote possibility Durant receives 2013-14 Westbrook treatment, capping his games played at 43, or three less than Westbrook participated in last regular season.
At this point I'm fearing the worst. A ten-week diagnosis with the possibility of missing one game out of every back-to-back knocks him out of my top-10. I'd rather select someone who's healthy at the start of the season and then pair them with Durant on the wrap around. Make no mistake, no player is immune to injury. Just because Durant's issue stunned the basketball community yesterday, any number of consensus first-round selections could be stricken with the injury bug at a moment's notice.
Bradley Beal
Beal's no stranger to injury. Twice he's suffered stress fractures in his right leg. During his rookie season, Beal missed 18 games due to a sprained left ankle, sprained right wrist, and sore back, combined with six more games on account of his right fibula injury. Now, he underwent surgery on his left wrist fracture on October 12th that will keep him out an expected six weeks. Tentatively, he'll return the beginning of Week 5 of the regular season. I believe, should the original timeline hold, he'll return on November 22nd on the road against the Milwaukee Bucks. If he reacts well to the surgery and comes back early, the Bucks are the perfect team to test out any injury against. Let's say coach Randy Wittman limits Beal to 25 minutes his first game back, the Bucks defense should yield quality stats in that timeframe. If the team feels he needs the full six weeks to recover, the Hawks represent the next immediate game.
Below is a list of total games played for each team through the first four weeks of the regular season. Beal owners lucked out with the Washington Wizards playing 12 games, second fewest amongst all teams and 14.6 percent of their schedule. Here's the problem for fantasy owners looking to roster Beal's replacements on their bench with the intention of starting him/them on nights with limited teams in action: The Wizards only play one quality game (a game played on nights with fewer than half the league playing) through the first four weeks, on October 30th, their second game of the season. If you target Otto Porter, Jr. or Glen Rice, they'll likely rot on your bench unless you're willing to start them over the players you invested draft picks on. The Wizards play four games during Week 2, but encounter a four-game, five-night journey, the bane of the NBA's existence. Three of those four games come on the road, decreasing my expectations and confidence in Beal's substitutes over such an arduous period of the schedule.
Overall, Beal should miss no more than 12 regular season games because of his left wrist injury. If he does return the last game of Week 4 against the Bucks, deduct one game from that projected total. I've knocked down Beal roughly 20 spots in my head-to-head rankings prior to this schedule analysis. I'm going to keep him there based on his injury history and concede him to an autodrafter.
Based on my own prior analysis, the Wizards have the second-worst November schedule offset by a combined 45 games during December, January, and February, tied for most in that interval. I reckon Beal could be sniped from a clueless owner prior to December in exchange for a member of the Orlando Magic. Waiting to enact such a maneuver accomplishes two goals: 1) It allows Beal to get into game shape and improve his conditioning (coming off 62 preseason minutes), wasting those games on your opponent's team and 2) It exchanges a player from a team (Orlando) that played five more games than the Wizards to start the season. If I really want to own Beal this season, that is the route I would take if I played in a league with no IR spot.