UNDERVALUED
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (ADP 35) – He's missed a couple of games each of the past two seasons, but don't let that mask the fact he's one of the elite receivers in the NFL today. Houshmandzadeh may have the best hands of anyone in the game and excels in traffic. He also plays for one of the best offensive units that should only be better with Carson Palmer one more year removed from knee surgery. He also won't be competing with Chris Henry (suspension) for looks over the first half of the season, which leaves nine scores from last season on the table. He caught the best percentage of balls thrown his way last year (69 percent) of any WR in the league and received twice as many red zone looks (22) as teammate Chad Johnson, so he's definitely the favorite to score the most TDs in Cincy, at least through the air.
Braylon Edwards (71) - He entered training camp this season no longer running his gums but letting his play do the talking and with a brand new attitude. Yes, I'm concerned about Cleveland's QB situation, and no, playing four games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore secondaries isn't ideal. However, Edwards is talented and has shown solid progress over his first two years in the league. Expect continued natural progression in this his third-year as a pro, and don't forget, he played all of last year while recovering from a torn ACL, so he won't truly be back to full strength until this season. 884 receiving yards and six touchdowns are nothing to write home about, but it's all in context. Those numbers from a second year guy at less than full strength in a poor offense suggests his future could be special.
Adrian Peterson (59) – Peterson has questions surrounding his collarbone and overall durability. He also plays for a team with a shaky quarterback and wide receivers. That said, this isn't just any rookie running back, as Peterson is a special talent. The Vikings boast one of the best offensive lines in football with Bryant McKinnie, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk leading the way. Minnesota's No. 1 ranked run defense is also a plus for Peterson's value, as even if their defense allows points, time of possession should almost always favor the Vikings. It remains to be seen how stubborn Brad Childress is with incumbent starter Chester Taylor, but the franchise didn't draft "AD" with the seventh overall pick to sit him. This is exactly the type of player who can win you a fantasy league.
OVERVALUED
Chester Taylor (58) – How Taylor sports a higher ADP than Adrian Peterson is beyond comprehension and reason. Taylor's most notable accomplishment last year was durability, as he was able to rack up more than 1,200 rushing yards for no other reason than getting 303 carries. He wore down badly toward the end of the season and represents nothing more than an average NFL running back at best. Cutting last year's totals in half looks like a solid estimation for his 2007 numbers.
Peyton Manning (14) - According to MockDraftCentral's data, the latest Manning was drafted in 508 drafts over the past week was at No. 24, meaning he lasted past the second round in zero leagues that were 12-teams deep. This is crazy. The only way Manning even begins to become 2nd round value is if he throws for 49 TDs again. If he tosses 28.25 touchdowns, which is his average season if you take away the 2004 outlier and a far more likely outcome, he's worth nothing more than a late fourth and probably early fifth round pick. He might be the best NFL player of all-time, but unless fantasy leagues start drastically changing scoring systems or your league typically selects 15 QBs in the first couple rounds of your draft, it makes the most sense to wait on the position. Later options like Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger will get 75 percent of Manning's production. You simply will not be able to do the same with the running back position. One caveat, in leagues that count 6-points per TD pass, Manning's value does increase.
Marion Barber (37) - I actually really like Barber as a football player, but I don't trust Wade Phillips' ability to share my judgment. Yes, Barber led the NFC in touchdowns last season in limited playing time, but if Jones gets 75 percent of the carries, and he'll be motivated in a contract year, Barber is simply too risky to be a third round pick. This situation is far from settled, and early indications point to Phillips preferring Jones as his guy.