While everyone is pretty much counting out New York, it's hard to imagine this team not making a strong run over the final four months of the season. Without a doubt, they've played poor baseball through eight weeks, and 13.5 games is a deep enough hole to probably discount any chance of overtaking Boston in the AL East. If that's not bad enough, seven teams are currently ahead of them in the wild card race, so it's easy to see why many foresee an October sans the Yankees.
However, the task may not be as difficult as it seems. A closer look at the teams ahead in the standings reveals a couple of frauds (Orioles, Mariners), a duo that's getting ravaged by injuries (Blue Jays, Athletics) and two others that are frankly inferior in talent (Twins, White Sox). Which leaves us with the wild card leading Tigers, who are up 7.5 games as of now. It's a solid team, but one with an imploding bullpen, injury-prone key players (Carlos Guillen/Gary Sheffield) and an aging vet playing like Babe Ruth (Magglio Ordonez).
But enough about the other teams, because when New York starts playing in accordance with their talent that suits up, it won't matter. Entering the season, the Yankees looked like one of the three best teams in baseball, with the Red Sox and Mets also in the picture. Not enough has changed in my mind to drastically alter that viewpoint. In one-run games this year, the Yankees are 2-10, so expect that to start evening out soon. Of the top-five teams with the best on-base percentages this year, four of them have a top-five record in baseball. And then there are the Yankees, whose .353 OBP ranks third best, and yet their record doesn't correlate like the others.
So it's pitching that's been the culprit. A 4.70 team ERA is ugly, but a starting rotation of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Chien-Ming Wang and some scrub (eventually Phil Hughes?) not only form a solid staff, but one of the better rotations in the AL. The bullpen has problems, but Mariano Rivera is still there for the ninth. Combine that with one of the most dangerous lineups MLB has seen in years, and this team still looks like one of the best in the league. I don't like the Yankees, and in fact, I hope they finish in last place, but people should not be so quick to assume their demise.