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What is the Hitting/Pitching Split in NFBC Drafts?

When converting projected stats into dollar values, you have to decide how much of the overall budget you want to assign to hitting and pitching, respectively. If there are 12 teams, each with $260 to spend on 23 players (14 hitters, nine pitchers), that means there's $3,120 total dollars to spend on 276 players (168 hitters and 108 pitchers.)

You could divide it 50/50, apportion $1,560 to each - after all there are five hitting categories worth 60 total points (5 * 12) and five pitching categories also worth 60 total points, and each side is contributes equally to your season-long success or failure. But if you did that, you'd be out of step with the market, as traditionally - for a variety of reasons - it apportions roughly 70 percent of the budget ($2,184) toward the 168 hitters and 30 percent ($936) toward the 108 pitchers.

You can click the link above to decide if the market is correct or not about this (I went into detail on the topic a few years ago), but I want to explore something else here: It's well known the NFBC leagues - the high-stakes contests with some of the world's best fantasy players - tend to push up elite starting pitching more than most fantasy industry leagues, but I had never seen that tendency quantified. We could compare ADPs of starting pitchers in the NFBC to our leagues and note more pitchers were taken in the first three rounds in the former, but noting there were more pitchers in the top-20, 30 or 60 picks is still an imprecise way to track it.

In the interest of more precision (though my method also has its flaws), I took this year's NFBC ADP list and I assigned dollar values to each slot. I (somewhat arbitrarily) used the NFBC's average auction values (AAVs) for every player $30 or higher (there were 21 such players), and I created a simple formula for the rest to spend the entire $3120 on the top 276 players. Moreover, I didn't use Clayton Kershaw's $44.38 AAV for Kershaw but instead for the No. 1 pick by ADP, Mike Trout. Kershaw, whose ADP is No. 5, got the fifth highest auction amount assigned to his slot ($40.25.) After all, 1.1 is the most expensive slot, and it goes to Trout. Therefore, NFBC drafters are spending the most money on him, the next most on Mookie Betts at No. 2 and so on. The reason I somewhat arbitrarily used the NFBC AAVs for the prices of each draft slot is I had to decide roughly what the top picks were worth before pricing every other draft slot relative to them such that the total of 276 picks added up to $3,120.

The way I did it was unrealistically simple, but I think it works for the purposes of the exercise. For every pick below No. 21 overall Chris Sale ($30.13), I multiplied the previous price by 0.98796. So No. 22, Joey Votto, clocks in for $29.76, No. 23, Corey Kluber, is $29.40, etc. until we get down to No. 276 Junior Guerra at $1.76. And the sum of all the 276 players (107 pitchers and 269 hitters*) equals $3,120.

*The NFBC allows you to draft bench spots before you complete your starting roster, so there's one extra hitter and one fewer pitcher in the total, but that shouldn't skew the numbers much.

Keep in mind these values have nothing to do with projections or anything substantive other than simply assigning declining amounts to each subsequent ADP slot as determined by the NFBC ADP. Moreover, in a real auction, or when you use actual projections to calculate dollar values, the decline isn't uniform and linear like this, i.e., you could have four $31 players, then a gap where the next highest player went for $28. I used a consistent multiplier to assign value. Again, for the purposes of this exercise, I don't think it should matter.

Here's the list:

RkNFBC ADPPos$RkNFBC ADPPos$RkNFBC ADPPos$RkNFBC ADPPos$
1Mike TroutCF44.3876Kyle SchwarberLF15.47151Jameson TaillonSP6.24226Matt ShoemakerSP2.51
2Mookie BettsRF43.7577Craig KimbrelMR15.29152Aledmys DiazSS6.16227Hunter RenfroeRF2.48
3Jose Altuve2B41.3878Roberto OsunaMR15.10153Carlos GomezCF6.09228C.J. Cron1B2.45
4Kris Bryant3B41.1379Edwin DiazMR14.92154Adam DuvallLF6.02229Marco EstradaSP2.43
5Clayton KershawSP40.2580Hanley Ramirez1B14.74155Elvis AndrusSS5.94230Hector NerisMR2.40
6Nolan Arenado3B39.5081Chris Davis1B14.56156Troy TulowitzkiSS5.87231Taijuan WalkerSP2.37
7Paul Goldschmidt1B39.2582Cole HamelsSP14.39157Marcus StromanSP5.80232Ryan MadsonMR2.34
8Manny Machado3B39.1383Justin UptonLF14.22158Adam OttavinoMR5.73233Blake SnellSP2.31
9Bryce HarperRF36.8884Adrian Beltre3B14.04159Brad MillerSS5.66234Victor MartinezDH2.28
10Trea Turner2B35.8885DJ LeMahieu2B13.88160Tim AndersonSS5.59235Max KeplerRF2.26
11Max ScherzerSP35.3886Wade DavisMR13.71161John LackeySP5.53236Brandon MaurerMR2.23
12Josh Donaldson3B35.1387Masahiro TanakaSP13.54162Brian McCannC5.46237Starlin Castro2B2.20
13Anthony Rizzo1B34.2588Willson ContrerasC13.38163Steven MatzSP5.39238Yoan Moncada3B2.17
14Miguel Cabrera1B33.6389Ken GilesMR13.22164Julio UriasSP5.33239Leonys MartinCF2.15
15Madison BumgarnerSP33.1390Anthony Rendon3B13.06165Adrian Gonzalez1B5.26240Jarrod DysonCF2.12
16Charlie BlackmonCF32.6391David DahlLF12.90166Brandon Belt1B5.20241Brandon CrawfordSS2.10
17Carlos CorreaSS32.2592Alex Bregman3B12.75167Russell MartinC5.14242Jedd Gyorko2B2.07
18Noah SyndergaardSP31.8893Jason Kipnis2B12.59168Jonathan Schoop2B5.08243Joe RossSP2.05
19Corey SeagerSS30.3894Jose Ramirez3B12.44169Kendrys MoralesDH5.02244Jung Ho Kang3B2.02
20Jonathan VillarSS30.3895Zack GreinkeSP12.29170Raisel IglesiasSP4.96245Neil Walker2B2.00
21Chris SaleSP30.1396Matt KempRF12.14171Sean ManaeaSP4.90246Manuel MargotCF1.97
22Joey Votto1B29.7697Kenta MaedaSP12.00172Dellin BetancesMR4.84247Greg Bird1B1.95
23Corey KluberSP29.4098Khris DavisLF11.85173Ben Zobrist2B4.78248Cameron RuppC1.93
24Starling MarteLF29.0599Danny DuffySP11.71174Welington CastilloC4.72249Ian KennedySP1.90
25Edwin Encarnacion1B28.70100Evan GattisC11.57175Matt MooreSP4.66250Garrett RichardsSP1.88
26Freddie Freeman1B28.35101Alex ColomeMR11.43176Lance McCullersSP4.61251Jacoby EllsburyCF1.86
27Xander BogaertsSS28.01102Aaron SanchezSP11.29177Marcell OzunaCF4.55252Didi GregoriusSS1.84
28Francisco LindorSS27.68103Eric Hosmer1B11.16178Hernan Perez3B4.50253Brandon DruryLF1.81
29Trevor StorySS27.34104Kelvin HerreraMR11.02179James PaxtonSP4.44254Jason HeywardRF1.79
30Robinson Cano2B27.01105Andrew MillerMR10.89180Jon GraySP4.39255Wilson RamosC1.77
31Jake ArrietaSP26.69106Cody AllenMR10.76181Jake OdorizziSP4.34256Jharel CottonSP1.75
32George SpringerRF26.37107Evan Longoria3B10.63182Keon BroxtonCF4.29257Chris Carter1B1.73
33Yu DarvishSP26.05108Jose QuintanaSP10.50183Vince VelasquezSP4.23258Matt HollidayLF1.71
34Brian Dozier2B25.74109Rick PorcelloSP10.38184Kevin KiermaierCF4.18259Domingo SantanaRF1.69
35A.J. PollockCF25.43110Julio TeheranSP10.25185Dansby SwansonSS4.13260Melky CabreraLF1.67
36Jon LesterSP25.12111J.T. RealmutoC10.13186J.A. HappSP4.08261Orlando ArciaSS1.65
37Daniel Murphy2B24.82112Jeurys FamiliaMR10.00187Kole CalhounRF4.03262Eugenio Suarez3B1.63
38Giancarlo StantonRF24.52113Gerrit ColeSP9.88188Eric ThamesLF3.98263Fernando RodneyMR1.61
39Buster PoseyC24.22114Eduardo NunezSS9.77189Dexter FowlerCF3.94264Addison ReedMR1.59
40Rougned Odor2B23.93115Miguel SanoRF9.65190Yadier MolinaC3.89265Nate JonesMR1.57
41Nelson CruzRF23.64116Adam JonesCF9.53191Ryon Healy3B3.84266Hisashi IwakumaSP1.55
42Justin VerlanderSP23.36117Jose BautistaRF9.42192Ender InciarteCF3.80267Yuli Gurriel3B1.53
43Johnny CuetoSP23.08118Javier Baez3B9.30193Jay BruceRF3.75268Ivan NovaSP1.51
44David PriceSP22.80119Carlos Santana1B9.19194Jeff SamardzijaSP3.71269Josh Harrison2B1.49
45Dee Gordon2B22.53120Odubel HerreraCF9.08195Carlos RodonSP3.66270David PeraltaRF1.48
46Aroldis ChapmanMR22.25121David RobertsonMR8.97196Devon Travis2B3.62271Dylan BundySP1.46
47Kenley JansenMR21.99122Maikel Franco3B8.86197Matt WietersC3.57272Asdrubal CabreraSS1.44
48Gary SanchezC21.72123Rich HillSP8.76198Rajai DavisCF3.53273Curtis GrandersonRF1.42
49Ryan BraunLF21.46124Justin Turner3B8.65199Joc PedersonCF3.49274Brandon KintzlerMR1.41
50Billy HamiltonCF21.20125Adam EatonRF8.55200Mike Moustakas3B3.45275Derek NorrisC1.39
51J.D. MartinezRF20.95126Salvador PerezC8.44201Jim JohnsonMR3.40276Junior GuerraSP1.37
52Ian DesmondCF20.69127Danny SalazarSP8.34202Jerad EickhoffSP3.36277Sandy LeonC
53Chris ArcherSP20.44128Lorenzo CainCF8.24203Stephen VogtC3.32278Yangervis Solarte3B
54Jonathan LucroyC20.20129A.J. RamosMR8.14204Nomar MazaraRF3.28279Collin McHughSP
55Jean Segura2B19.96130Stephen PiscottyRF8.04205Nick Castellanos3B3.24280Brett GardnerLF
56Stephen StrasburgSP19.72131Jose Peraza2B7.95206Sonny GraySP3.20281Tyler GlasnowSP
57Carlos CarrascoSP19.48132Francisco RodriguezMR7.85207Marcus SemienSS3.17282Jorge SolerLF
58Wil Myers1B19.24133Andrew BenintendiLF7.76208Hunter PenceRF3.13283Josh BellRF
59Zach BrittonMR19.01134Addison RussellSS7.66209Aaron NolaSP3.09284Brandon Phillips2B
60Christian YelichLF18.78135Felix HernandezSP7.57210Michael PinedaSP3.05285Mike ZuninoC
61Yoenis CespedesCF18.56136Albert Pujols1B7.48211Tommy Joseph1B3.02286Daniel NorrisSP
62Jose Abreu1B18.33137Michael FulmerSP7.39212Randal GrichukCF2.98287Travis JankowskiCF
63Gregory PolancoRF18.11138Tanner RoarkSP7.30213Drew PomeranzSP2.94288Cesar Hernandez2B
64Kyle HendricksSP17.89139Dustin Pedroia2B7.21214Robbie RaySP2.91289Travis d'ArnaudC
65Carlos GonzalezRF17.68140Alex ReyesSP7.13215Carlos BeltranRF2.87290Corey DickersonLF
66Kyle Seager3B17.47141Dallas KeuchelSP7.04216Michael BrantleyLF2.84291Cameron MaybinCF
67Andrew McCutchenCF17.26142Matt HarveySP6.96217Drew SmylySP2.80292Josh ReddickRF
68Carlos MartinezSP17.05143Sam DysonMR6.87218Cam BedrosianMR2.77293Eduardo RodriguezSP
69Mark TrumboRF16.84144Jackie Bradley Jr.CF6.79219Shawn KelleyMR2.74294Gio GonzalezSP
70Mark MelanconMR16.64145Yasmani GrandalC6.71220Tom MurphyC2.70295Chris TillmanSP
71Jacob deGromSP16.44146Tony WatsonMR6.63221Mike Napoli1B2.67296Kevin PillarCF
72Matt Carpenter3B16.24147Yasmany TomasLF6.55222Adam WainwrightSP2.64297Zach DaviesSP
73Seung Hwan OhMR16.05148Byron BuxtonCF6.47223Anthony DeSclafaniSP2.61298Neftali FelizMR
74Todd Frazier3B15.85149Jake Lamb3B6.39224Logan Forsythe2B2.58299Devin MesoracoC
75Ian Kinsler2B15.66150Kevin GausmanSP6.31225Yasiel PuigRF2.55300Chris OwingsCF

What's most important here are the positions. You can see which slots are assigned to hitters and which to pitchers and add up how much money is spent in total for each. Again, while each slot price descends uniformly as you go down the list, having it be more uneven like a real set of converted projections or actual auction prices doesn't figure to shift total dollars toward or away from pitchers - at least not in any way I can imagine.

Here's a table with only the pitchers:

RkReliever$RkStarting Pitcher$RkStarting Pitcher$
46Aroldis Chapman22.255Clayton Kershaw40.25164Julio Urias5.33
47Kenley Jansen21.9911Max Scherzer35.38170Raisel Iglesias4.96
59Zach Britton19.0115Madison Bumgarner33.13171Sean Manaea4.90
70Mark Melancon16.6418Noah Syndergaard31.88175Matt Moore4.66
73Seung Hwan Oh16.0521Chris Sale30.13176Lance McCullers4.61
77Craig Kimbrel15.2923Corey Kluber29.40179James Paxton4.44
78Roberto Osuna15.1031Jake Arrieta26.69180Jon Gray4.39
79Edwin Diaz14.9233Yu Darvish26.05181Jake Odorizzi4.34
86Wade Davis13.7136Jon Lester25.12183Vince Velasquez4.23
89Ken Giles13.2242Justin Verlander23.36186J.A. Happ4.08
101Alex Colome11.4343Johnny Cueto23.08194Jeff Samardzija3.71
104Kelvin Herrera11.0244David Price22.80195Carlos Rodon3.66
105Andrew Miller10.8953Chris Archer20.44202Jerad Eickhoff3.36
106Cody Allen10.7656Stephen Strasburg19.72206Sonny Gray3.20
112Jeurys Familia10.0057Carlos Carrasco19.48209Aaron Nola3.09
121David Robertson8.9764Kyle Hendricks17.89210Michael Pineda3.05
129A.J. Ramos8.1468Carlos Martinez17.05213Drew Pomeranz2.94
132Francisco Rodriguez7.8571Jacob deGrom16.44214Robbie Ray2.91
143Sam Dyson6.8782Cole Hamels14.39217Drew Smyly2.80
146Tony Watson6.6387Masahiro Tanaka13.54222Adam Wainwright2.64
158Adam Ottavino5.7395Zack Greinke12.29223Anthony DeSclafani2.61
172Dellin Betances4.8497Kenta Maeda12.00226Matt Shoemaker2.51
201Jim Johnson3.4099Danny Duffy11.71229Marco Estrada2.43
218Cam Bedrosian2.77102Aaron Sanchez11.29231Taijuan Walker2.37
219Shawn Kelley2.74108Jose Quintana10.50233Blake Snell2.31
230Hector Neris2.40109Rick Porcello10.38243Joe Ross2.05
232Ryan Madson2.34110Julio Teheran10.25249Ian Kennedy1.90
236Brandon Maurer2.23113Gerrit Cole9.88250Garrett Richards1.88
263Fernando Rodney1.61123Rich Hill8.76256Jharel Cotton1.75
264Addison Reed1.59127Danny Salazar8.34266Hisashi Iwakuma1.55
265Nate Jones1.57135Felix Hernandez7.57268Ivan Nova1.51
274Brandon Kintzler1.41137Michael Fulmer7.39271Dylan Bundy1.46
298Neftali Feliz0.00138Tanner Roark7.30276Junior Guerra1.37
140Alex Reyes7.13279Collin McHugh0.00
141Dallas Keuchel7.04281Tyler Glasnow0.00
142Matt Harvey6.96286Daniel Norris0.00
150Kevin Gausman6.31293Eduardo Rodriguez0.00
151Jameson Taillon6.24294Gio Gonzalez0.00
157Marcus Stroman5.80295Chris Tillman0.00
161John Lackey5.53297Zach Davies0.00
163Steven Matz5.39
TOTAL RP293.36TOTAL SP767.28TOTAL P1060.64

As you can see the total spent on pitching, given NFBC ADP, is $1060.64, which comes out to 34 percent of the $3120 total budget. In other words, using this admittedly rough hack, the NFBC drafters seem to be more aggressive in chasing pitching than the conventional 70/30 hitter/pitcher formulas. Keep in mind when I calculated the Steamer values for pitching and hitting using my formula, I used 70/30 rather than 66/34 or what the NFBC marketplace seems to be doing. Were I to have gone 66/34, Kershaw, Max Scherzer and the rest of the top pitchers would have proven to be even better values than they are now.