I ran the Steamer pitching projections through my basic formula which compares players across categories based on standard deviations above replacement in each category. The merits of the approach are it generates a good overall value based on the projected the player pool. The weakness is it doesn't account for the way people actually fill their pitching slots, i.e., it assumes everyone's trying to maximize overall value of the nine slots rather than doing so for seven while separately trying to score well in saves in the last two. As a result, one-dimensional closers - those projected to help in saves but little else - are ranked lower than they would be in a typical draft or auction.
Moreover, I'm not suggesting you use this as a draft-sheet - Steamer has a lot of assumptions about health and role built in that turn out to be inaccurate. But overall, Steamer has proven to be the most reliable of all the projections systems, so it's a good starting point to compare relative values. Finally, I used a $260 budget, 12-team, nine-pitchers-per-active-roster set-up to get the dollar values with a 30 percent allocation of total budget toward pitching.
Here are the rankings:
Rank | Pitcher | $ | Rank | Pitcher | $ | Rank | Pitcher | $ | Rank | Pitcher | $ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Clayton Kershaw | 48.41 | 51 | Matt Moore | 7.00 | 101 | Bartolo Colon | 0.10 | 151 | Jim Johnson | -4.31 |
2 | Max Scherzer | 35.11 | 52 | Ken Giles | 6.79 | 102 | A.J. Ramos | -0.10 | 152 | Matt Bush | -4.44 |
3 | Noah Syndergaard | 29.40 | 53 | Seung Hwan Oh | 6.69 | 103 | Sam Dyson | -0.10 | 153 | Corey Knebel | -4.42 |
4 | Madison Bumgarner | 28.81 | 54 | Drew Smyly | 6.61 | 104 | Taijuan Walker | -0.10 | 154 | Jhoulys Chacin | -4.36 |
5 | Chris Sale | 26.37 | 55 | Matt Harvey | 6.46 | 105 | Fernando Rodney | -0.18 | 155 | Wade Miley | -4.29 |
6 | Corey Kluber | 24.36 | 56 | Vince Velasquez | 6.30 | 106 | Jharel Cotton | -0.21 | 156 | Jordan Zimmermann | -4.39 |
7 | Stephen Strasburg | 22.67 | 57 | Garrett Richards | 5.90 | 107 | Mike Leake | -0.25 | 157 | Edinson Volquez | -4.42 |
8 | Jon Lester | 22.52 | 58 | Marcus Stroman | 5.56 | 108 | Jerad Eickhoff | -0.35 | 158 | Carter Capps | -4.70 |
9 | Johnny Cueto | 21.75 | 59 | Julio Teheran | 5.59 | 109 | Sean Manaea | -0.54 | 159 | Nick Vincent | -4.69 |
10 | David Price | 21.22 | 60 | Felix Hernandez | 5.62 | 110 | Francisco Liriano | -0.55 | 160 | Tyson Ross | -4.59 |
11 | Carlos Carrasco | 21.14 | 61 | Gio Gonzalez | 5.49 | 111 | Kyle Barraclough | -0.76 | 161 | Trevor Bauer | -4.58 |
12 | Justin Verlander | 20.52 | 62 | Jon Gray | 5.52 | 112 | Francisco Rodriguez | -0.80 | 162 | Zack Wheeler | -4.76 |
13 | Chris Archer | 20.42 | 63 | Jose De Leon | 5.28 | 113 | Lance Lynn | -1.07 | 163 | Junior Guerra | -4.55 |
14 | Yu Darvish | 20.03 | 64 | Kevin Gausman | 5.30 | 114 | Mike Fiers | -1.01 | 164 | Ty Blach | -4.89 |
15 | Jake Arrieta | 18.18 | 65 | Kelvin Herrera | 5.11 | 115 | Sonny Gray | -1.04 | 165 | Brad Boxberger | -5.03 |
16 | Kenley Jansen | 14.37 | 66 | Roberto Osuna | 5.07 | 116 | Tyler Anderson | -1.04 | 166 | Will Harris | -5.27 |
17 | Jacob deGrom | 14.25 | 67 | Jeurys Familia | 5.03 | 117 | Tyler Glasnow | -1.13 | 167 | Daniel Norris | -5.22 |
18 | Rich Hill | 13.97 | 68 | Dellin Betances | 4.77 | 118 | Tanner Roark | -1.19 | 168 | Ryan Pressly | -5.37 |
19 | Dallas Keuchel | 13.97 | 69 | Raisel Iglesias | 4.74 | 119 | Jeremy Hellickson | -1.24 | 169 | Homer Bailey | -5.42 |
20 | Aroldis Chapman | 13.82 | 70 | Alex Wood | 4.48 | 120 | Greg Holland | -1.43 | 170 | Joaquin Benoit | -5.53 |
21 | Lance McCullers | 13.76 | 71 | Collin McHugh | 4.59 | 121 | Hunter Strickland | -1.70 | 171 | Adam Conley | -5.47 |
22 | Kyle Hendricks | 12.86 | 72 | Cam Bedrosian | 4.42 | 122 | Mike Montgomery | -2.10 | 172 | Clay Buchholz | -5.62 |
23 | Michael Pineda | 12.83 | 73 | Michael Fulmer | 3.96 | 123 | Brandon McCarthy | -2.16 | 173 | Blake Treinen | -5.72 |
24 | Matt Shoemaker | 12.40 | 74 | Adam Wainwright | 3.75 | 124 | Mike Foltynewicz | -2.04 | 174 | Jason Hammel | -5.58 |
25 | Masahiro Tanaka | 12.30 | 75 | Jake Odorizzi | 3.17 | 125 | Michael Wacha | -2.16 | 175 | CC Sabathia | -5.86 |
26 | Gerrit Cole | 12.17 | 76 | David Robertson | 3.04 | 126 | Zach Davies | -2.15 | 176 | Darren O'Day | -6.04 |
27 | Jameson Taillon | 11.98 | 77 | Blake Snell | 2.94 | 127 | Adam Ottavino | -2.52 | 177 | Shelby Miller | -5.88 |
28 | Danny Duffy | 12.05 | 78 | Alex Colome | 2.80 | 128 | Nate Jones | -2.78 | 178 | Jason Vargas | -5.93 |
29 | Danny Salazar | 12.04 | 79 | Cody Allen | 2.55 | 129 | Hector Neris | -2.76 | 179 | Dan Straily | -5.96 |
30 | Robbie Ray | 11.91 | 80 | Anthony DeSclafani | 2.59 | 130 | David Phelps | -2.82 | 180 | Patrick Corbin | -6.20 |
31 | Jeff Samardzija | 11.76 | 81 | Tony Watson | 2.39 | 131 | R.A. Dickey | -2.67 | 181 | Marco Estrada | -6.16 |
32 | James Paxton | 11.60 | 82 | Joe Ross | 2.35 | 132 | Archie Bradley | -2.65 | 182 | Mike Clevinger | -6.35 |
33 | Andrew Miller | 11.33 | 83 | Carlos Rodon | 2.27 | 133 | Brett Cecil | -3.14 | 183 | Brandon Kintzler | -6.41 |
34 | Carlos Martinez | 10.83 | 84 | Hisashi Iwakuma | 2.15 | 134 | Eduardo Rodriguez | -2.98 | 184 | Tyler Duffey | -6.69 |
35 | Steven Matz | 10.53 | 85 | Julio Urias | 2.07 | 135 | Luke Gregerson | -3.15 | 185 | Dylan Bundy | -6.55 |
36 | Jose Quintana | 10.57 | 86 | Jaime Garcia | 2.03 | 136 | Ryan Madson | -3.07 | 186 | Jeanmar Gomez | -6.88 |
37 | Zack Greinke | 9.89 | 87 | Scott Kazmir | 1.50 | 137 | Felipe Rivero | -3.18 | 187 | Jake Barrett | -7.13 |
38 | Edwin Diaz | 9.75 | 88 | Brandon Maurer | 1.46 | 138 | Alex Cobb | -3.13 | 188 | Andrew Triggs | -7.17 |
39 | Wade Davis | 9.51 | 89 | Grant Dayton | 1.28 | 139 | Hector Rondon | -3.33 | 189 | Luis Perdomo | -7.38 |
40 | Aaron Nola | 9.37 | 90 | Drew Pomeranz | 1.28 | 140 | Luis Severino | -3.49 | 190 | Robert Gsellman | -7.96 |
41 | Rick Porcello | 8.99 | 91 | J.A. Happ | 1.35 | 141 | Chad Green | -3.50 | 191 | Nate Karns | -8.02 |
42 | Kenta Maeda | 8.70 | 92 | Ivan Nova | 1.21 | 142 | Trevor May | -3.55 | 192 | Luke Weaver | -8.31 |
43 | Cole Hamels | 8.85 | 93 | Sean Doolittle | 1.06 | 143 | Brad Hand | -3.76 | 193 | Cody Reed | -8.42 |
44 | Zach Britton | 8.12 | 94 | Ian Kennedy | 1.25 | 144 | Ervin Santana | -3.52 | 194 | Matt Boyd | -8.42 |
45 | Tyler Skaggs | 8.11 | 95 | Neftali Feliz | 0.69 | 145 | Jesse Chavez | -3.73 | 195 | Brett Anderson | -8.66 |
46 | John Lackey | 8.11 | 96 | Aaron Sanchez | 0.82 | 146 | Addison Reed | -3.93 | 196 | Chad Kuhl | -8.66 |
47 | Mark Melancon | 7.85 | 97 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.69 | 147 | Drew Hutchison | -4.02 | 197 | Brandon Finnegan | -8.53 |
48 | Craig Kimbrel | 7.89 | 98 | Matt Andriese | 0.54 | 148 | Charlie Morton | -3.96 | 198 | Scott Feldman | -9.00 |
49 | Shawn Kelley | 7.86 | 99 | Arodys Vizcaino | 0.44 | 149 | Josh Tomlin | -4.06 | 199 | Tom Koehler | -9.05 |
50 | Wei-Yin Chen | 7.78 | 100 | Koji Uehara | 0.26 | 150 | Alex Meyer | -4.06 | 200 | Reynaldo Lopez | -9.31 |
A couple things that were noteworthy to me:
• Clayton Kershaw is miles ahead of everyone else, worth more than Corey Kluber and Stephen Strasburg combined. But Max Scherzer is also his own tier. And the idea that there's an elite tier of starting pitchers and then everyone else is supported by these projections.
• Andrew Miller is unexpectedly high, partly because he's projected for 20 saves along with his elite ratios. I still think he's problematic in a 12-team mixed league if he's not getting regular saves because you'll find good streaming matchups that give you better overall numbers than the players on this list, but ranking him No. 33 overall, Steamer disagrees.