I don't believe in shooting for strict categorical target goals during a draft, but thought it might be useful to get a rough idea of what it takes to win the 450-team NFBC Main Event overall. Typically it's around 80th percentile in each of the 10 categories, or 360 out of 450 possible points for each. Last year, 3600 total category points would have put you in ninth place, so it's ballpark for what it took, though the winner, Rob Silver, had more than 4,000. But let's keep it simple and aim for 80 percent or 3600.

Below I compare 80th percentile totals in the NFBC from 2016 to 20th percentile ones, i.e., roughly replacement value if you stay active all year:

As you can see, in some categories the difference doesn't seem that stark: 12 points of batting average, 53 homers, 23 wins. Assuming 75-80 percent of your production comes from the draft (and 20 percent from FAAB), you need to beat the bad teams by ~40 HRs and 10 points of average collectively over the draft's 30 rounds, along with the requisite margins in the other categories. It doesn't sound too hard, but remember if your fourth round pitcher tears his UCL in April, you're now down 12-plus wins to everyone who drafted a reasonably healthy starter in that round, and that plus the ~20 extra wins have to be made up elsewhere.

One consequence of some categories being more condensed than others is a few wins here or there, a few points in batting average or a big week of homers can make a massive difference. Of course, wins are also more scarce and harder to predict than RBI or runs, and getting to 80 percent in one category no easier than doing so in any other.

Next post will tackle the question of which players are the biggest difference makers in making up these margins and put them in ADP context.