All hail the champions!
It was with almost universal praise that the San Antonio Spurs hoisted their fifth Larry O'Brien Trophy in June, such was the methodical way they dismantled the Miami Heat in five games in the NBA Finals. But, when it comes to fantasy basketball, it seems like there's unadulterated hate for coach Gregg Popovich and his squad.
Sports, and sports talk in particular, are driven by narratives. Whether they be accurate, full of half-truths, or just flat out furphies, we can't help but be influenced by the all-pervasive nature of what we hear or read regarding our favorite sport or team. When it comes to the Spurs, I'm sure you heard that last season's squad was the first in NBA history to not have a single player average over 30 minutes per game. That's pretty crazy for sure, but contrary to what you may hear, this sort of rotational policy doesn't strip the Spurs' players of their fantasy value. In fact, the mere fact that last season's squad was the first in NBA history to average less than 30 minutes per night shows that it's not something that the Spurs have done before. The season prior, Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, and Tony Parker all played over 30 minutes per night.
We've all heard it. "I'm not drafting any Spurs, Pop rests his players too much". "No one gets over 30 minutes, ugh, that can be someone else's problem". But is that correct when you really look at it?
Let's start by looking at the top Spurs' players from a fantasy perspective. I'll include the ranks on a per game and totals basis.
Name | Nine-Cat Ranking (Per Game) | Nine-Cat Ranking (Total) | Games Played |
Kawhi Leonard | 15 | 29 | 66 |
Tim Duncan | 39 | 40 | 74 |
Danny Green | 79 | 97 | 68 |
Manu Ginobili | 84 | 98 | 68 |
Patty Mills | 116 | 80 | 81 |
Tony Parker | 119 | 124 | 68 |
Marco Belinelli | 123 | 93 | 80 |
Boris Diaw | 162 | 128 | 79 |
Tiago Splitter | 206 | 218 | 59 |
In a roto league, because of the standard 82 game limit enforced on each starting position, the totals aren't as important, as when someone misses, you just substitute in one of your bench players.
So, in a standard 12 team league, seven Spurs' players fell within the ownable range (top 156), with Boris Diaw just falling outside that range, and despite the games missed, as you can see by the totals rankings, there isn't a big drop off for most players.
Even if Pop runs the exact same rotation as last season, which is possible, but unlikely, Spurs' players have fantasy value. It just depends on where you are drafting them.
You'll hear the arguments against them. People will say they aren't drafting Kawhi Leonard in the top 50, let alone the top 20, because of the Spurs' system and because of Pop's rotations. But, they'll fail to recognise that Leonard, playing 29 minutes a game last season, was still a top 15 player. They'll also fail to realize or acknowledge that Leonard was rested for a grand total of one game last season. One. The second last game of the season.
Here is a list of players who were rested for at least one game.
- LeBron James
- Steph Curry
- James Harden
- Kevin Love
- Carmelo Anthony
- and the list goes on and on
In the 25 games he played after the All-Star break and returning from his hand injury, which was a freak injury, not a sign of being injury prone, Leonard was ranked as the seventh best player on a per-game basis in nine category leagues. Does anyone want to hazard a guess as to how many minutes he played over that stretch? 30. So, to use an argument that you won't draft Leonard because he doesn't play over 30 minutes a game is asinine. He doesn't have to. He was top 10 without playing 30 minutes. Imagine if Pop unleashed the Finals MVP and played him 35 minutes per night? The top five may be within range.
Sure Pop does rest players occasionally, but it's not an epidemic. All you have to do is look at the value the players gave you in limited minutes and with rests included. Tim Duncan has missed 29 games over the last three seasons, less than Chris Paul, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kyrie Irving, and Kyle Lowry, to name but a few, yet Duncan, who was a top 10 player in 2012-13, is routinely drafted well down in drafts, sometimes as low as pick 70.
Now, I'm not saying that the Spurs' system is a bounty for fantasy owners and that everyone should clamor to get their hands on as many Spurs as possible. But, what you must do is not ignore the best team in the NBA because of a belief that they have no value due to coach Pop and his blasted system. At some point in fantasy drafts, every player has value, and if your league mates are letting Spurs slide, grab yourself a bargain and put one on your roster.
And if you are in a deeper, say 16-team league. Well, the Spurs may just become your best friend. Guys like Belinelli and Diaw will be available very late, but if you look to what happened last season, they gave extremely good returns on your investment.
Fantasy basketball is a game of numbers, it's not a game of storylines and narratives. Don't blindly believe the hype, or anti-hype, in this case without first looking at the numbers behind it. If Kawhi Leonard has slipped to pick 40, you grab him. If Duncan is available in the mid 60's, you grab him.
An added bonus -- you get to watch the most beautiful basketball in the NBA while accumulating your fantasy stats. I call that a win-win.