Given the facsimile of Steve Nash we saw last season in the Los Angeles Lakers' purple and gold, and the trade to acquire Jeremy Lin this past offseason, one could have easily put two and two together, and penciled Lin in as the Lakers' opening day starter. But, it appears new coach Byron Scott has other ideas.
As reported by Mark Medina of the L.A. Daily News, Scott is planning to use a veteran-laden starting lineup in his first season as the man in charge at Staples Center. At this stage, before training camp starts, Scott is planning on a starting five of Kobe Bryant, Wesley Johnson, Carlos Boozer, and Jordan Hill, with Steve Nash at the point guard position. All of that could change when camp begins, as Scott said himself, but for the time being, the 40-year-old two-time MVP will be the Lakers' starting point guard.
Nash played just 15 games last season, battling back, hamstring, and persistent nerve root issues in his leg. Even when he did play, Nash was limited to 21 minutes per game, the lowest amount he's played since his rookie season all the way back in the 1996-97 season. In the interview with the Daily News, Scott mentioned that Nash will have an undisclosed minutes restriction this season as well, and Nash will likely sit the second half of back-to-back sets, as he did when he was healthy last season.
What does this mean for fantasy owners who are in the midst of preparing for their drafts in the coming weeks?
As much as it seems like a big nail in the coffin of Lin's fantasy value, you need to look a little deeper.
Nash, although he may be the nominal starter, won't be playing the bulk of the minutes. Scott has said Nash will be limited and will sit games, and there's no reason to think that Nash, another year older, will be able to endure the rigors of even the games he's penciled in to play. In addition to Nash playing just 15 games, and playing just 21 minutes in those 15 games last season, he simply wasn't the same player last season as he was even two years ago in his first year with the Lakers. His celebrated efficiency took a big hit, with his field goal percentage dropping from his 49-percent career mark to 38 percent. Nash's three-point percentage dipped from 43 percent throughout his career to 33 percent last season, and his effective field goal percentage went from 56 percent to just 43 percent. To expect a bounce back from a battered 40-year-old is just not a thought I'm ready to entertain, despite word that Nash is feeling the best he has in two years.
Enter Jeremy Lin.
The negative blowback on Lin after the days of Linsanity in New York has gone too far. Sure, Lin is never going to be the player who took the world by storm in 2012 with the Knicks, but he's also not as bad of a player as many make him out to be. He' a very good NBA-level player, and in turn, a solid fantasy contributor. Last season, Lin lost his starting job to Patrick Beverley but still managed to receive 29 minutes per game and was the 102nd ranked player in eight-category fantasy leagues. And that was on a team boasting such fantasy talents as James Harden, Chandler Parsons, and Dwight Howard.
Now on the Lakers, a team whose talent pool pales in comparison to what the Rockets rolled out on a nightly basis last season, Lin should be able to improve his standing in the NBA and in fantasy. When Nash sits, Lin will start and should expect minutes in the mid 30's, with only rookie Jordan Clarkson to back him up. When Nash does play, Lin should still play similar minutes to what he did in Houston last season, and 29 mpg is generally enough for a player to be useful in standard leagues. With only Kobe Bryant as a better offensive option on the Lakers, Lin should be able to increase his scoring output and showcase his tremendous ability to get to the cup and finish. Coach Scott raved about Lin's ability to score on drives, citing a statistic that placed Lin's field goal percentage on drives at 58 percent, second only to LeBron James. [Editor's note: Dayum. That's impressive.]
Lin's current ADP (average draft position) on Yahoo is 110, and with this news about the starting lineup, his ADP could trend downward, allowing a well-informed fantasy owner (i.e. you) a real bargain in the latter rounds of drafts. As much as starting lineups are important in fantasy, what's more important is who actually gets the minutes, and in Los Angeles, over the course of the season, it's going to be Lin handling the bulk of the minutes in the backcourt.
Scott has so few offensive options that he'll have no choice but to get Lin on the court, and given how mindful Scott is of his players' health, there's no way that Nash will be pushed this season. I, for one, will be shocked if Nash surpasses 26 minutes per game.
Don't be the manager who ignores Jeremy Lin in fantasy drafts because of Nash or because of the negative image of Linsanity. Fantasy basketball is about numbers and numbers only, and Lin will be the best of the Lakers' ball-handlers in that regard.
If you have any questions about this, any other Lakers' matters or fantasy basketball in general, hit me up on Twitter, @redrock_bball.