Playing cash games in DFS is a lot like playing blackjack. I can accept losing here and there if I'm making the right plays. After all, everyone loses sometimes after doubling down on 11 against a 6. The difference with blackjack, of course, is there's a "book," so when I lose, I can feel better by telling myself I made the "right" play. In DFS cash games, there is no book ... so how do I know when I made the right play and the result was just unlucky (like losing a double down against a 6), or if I lost because I stayed on 15 against a king? Practice. Experience. Being willing to study my thought processes, and the results, and learn.
I lost in Week 2 in cash games on DraftKings, so maybe that's why I'm talking about the process. But in all honesty, just like blackjack, I'm comfortable, for the most part, with the plays I made.
What do you think? Am I rationalizing? Here's how I constructed my cash lineup on DraftKings in Week 2, after which I'll take an early look at Week 3.
Week 2 Lineup Construction:
C.J. Anderson: $6,800: 18.3 points. At home, against the Colts atrocious defense, at this price, Anderson was the first guy in my lineup. Over 50% of cash players agreed. Like I said with Spencer Ware last week, if you didn't play Anderson in cash in Week 2, you should re-assess your roster construction process.
T.J. Yeldon: $4,700: 11.8 points. Once Chris Ivory was declared "out," Yeldon was set for a three-down role in a good matchup, the very matchup Ware exploited in Week 1. It's hard to find backs with that kind of workload at this price. Though the Jaguars entire offense laid an egg in San Diego, choosing Yeldon here was fine.
Odell Beckham, Jr.: $9,500: 16.6 points. As matchups go, it doesn't get much better than this. ODB, at home, against a historically bad pass defense that just lost its top corner to a broken leg ... yes, please. Starting ODB would force me to go cheap at other positions, but as the week unfolded, I saw plenty of options to do so.
Unfortunately, the Giants game-plan was very conservative, and when they finally threw downfield to Beckham late in the game, he dropped it. But take the stud WR in the great matchup every time and you'll come out ahead in the long run.
Josh McCown: $5,000: 16.4 points. I considered Cam Newton at $7,800 and Eli Manning at $7,500, but at minimum salary (set before Robert Griffin III got hurt), McCown seemed like a solid bet for 225-250 yards and 2 TDs, allowing me to spend up at other positions.
You might wonder why I played McCown after passing on a minimum-salary Dak Prescott last week. Well, Dak was a rookie making his first NFL start, whereas McCown posted enough good games in 2015 that I felt comfortable here. Plus, Week 1 was full of cheap options, and Week 2 didn't have as many.
In retrospect, Cam turned out much better, but I didn't lose Week 2 because of a minimum-priced McCown.
Delanie Walker: $4,500: 20.3 points. I contemplated Jesse James and Virgil Green (profiled in this column last week), but as the week unfolded, and the Titans coaches kept saying they under-utilized Walker in Week 1, I knew a bounce-back was coming against a Lions defense that is a sieve to opposing tight ends. Good players in good matchups are always tough to turn down, but even moreso in a bounce-back spot.
After Walker, things got tough. I needed two more receivers, a flex, and a defense. I was considering Kelvin Benjamin at $6,500, Tyrell Williams at $3,700, Tajae Sharpe at $4,100, Travis Benjamin at $4,400, Will Fuller at $4,200, and A.J. Green at $8,900. At defense, I wanted to play the Panthers (profiled here last week), but they were $3,900, whereas the Patriots were $3,000 and the Raiders $2,700.
My next move was to eliminate Sharpe, as two Titans was one too many for cash. Then ...
Will Fuller, $4,200, 17.4 points. The Chiefs defense isn't nearly as good as it's been in recent years, and Fuller got 11 targets in Week 1. At this price, with that usage, even a rookie deserves a lineup spot in cash.
A.J. Green: $8,900, 5.8 points. Ugh. Just as Andrew Luck won my week in Week 1, Green lost it in Week 2. Even though every other lineup spot except defense performed well, 5.8 points at 9K in salary was too much to overcome.
Just as frustrating as Green's 5.8 points was that Kelvin Benjamin (who I profiled in this column last week but couldn't afford since I chose Green instead) exploded for 32.8 points.
So what went wrong here? Did I make the right play and lose due to luck? Or did I stay on 15 against a king?
I liked Green because he's been a beast against the Steelers in recent years, plus Week 1 showed how narrow the passing tree is in Cincy. In retrospect, though, Green's matchup was lukewarm at best, and if you're going to spend this much for one guy in cash, he needs to have a good matchup. Kelvin did, and bypassing him for Green cost me.
Raiders D: $2,700: -1 points. I wasn't on Oakland all week, but when I paid up for Green, it compelled me to go cheaper at defense. I thought Oakland would bounce back with a better performance at home, but Carolina was obviously the right play in a great matchup. That was the lesson here as well - playing Kelvin and Carolina gave me two good matchups instead of Green and Oakland D, which gave me two lukewarm ones.
Tyrell Williams, $3,700: 15.1 points. I had Travis Benjamin in my lineup until Saturday, but when I paid up for Green, I needed to save elsewhere. Ugh, Brutal. That said, Williams over Benjamin isn't why I lost the week, and $700 in savings for two comparable WRs (if anything, Williams is bigger and may have more upside) on the same team isn't wrong.
So, that was my week. Every play was solid except Green and Oakland D, but that was enough to give me an L. Painful, but let's apply the lessons learned in Week 3.
Week 3 Thoughts: These are the players who jump out at me at present, keeping in mind that the best options often emerge later in the week, once injury information unfolds.
Antonio Brown, $9,600: My first thought re. Week 3 was to check and see if Brown has a good matchup after the Bengals held him in check in Week 2. Philly? That works. As with ODB last week, the key will be whether we can get comfortable with the cheap options at other lineup spots.
Philip Rivers, $6,700: My second thought re. Week 3 was to see who gets to exploit the Colts porous, injury-depleted defense. San Diego? With Rivers playing well? Sign me up. Marcus Mariota at just $5,900 is an option against a struggling Raiders pass defense, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is too cheap at $5,900, but as the week unfolds, I suspect Rivers will be my guy in cash.
Tyrell Williams, $4,300: I get to pick on the Colts with a young, athletic receiver and pay just $4,300? Yes, please. I expect significant ownership on Williams in Week 3 as well as his teammate, Travis Benjamin, who enjoys the same matchup for just $5,200.
Melvin Gordon, $5,800: We can't play all the Chargers in cash, can we? Well, no. (If you play four Chargers in cash and an odd game flow unfolds - think two return touchdowns, 20 MPH winds, or a Philip Rivers injury in the first quarter - it can kill your entire day.) That said, Gordon's arrow is pointing up with Danny Woodhead injured, just in time for him to run all over Indy.
Tyler Lockett, $4,200: Lockett was $5,000 before Week 1 and is now down to $4,200. Yes, the Seattle offense is struggling, but that's likely to change in a home matchup with the 49ers. As a "hit or miss" downfield threat, Lockett might be too risky for cash, but he's certainly a good GPP play.
T.Y. Hilton, $6,800 and Phillip Dorsett, $4,400 : Hilton's price is down after having to face Denver, but the sledding will get easier on the speedy, home turf. I'm a little worried about a matchup with Jason Verrett, but with Donte Moncrief likely to be out, Hilton could be a target monster. Dorsett, meanwhile, is a terrific option in a plus matchup at this cost (set before the Moncrief injury was known), especially with Verrett possibly shadowing Hilton.
Jordan Reed, $6,500: Reed has yet to have a break-out game in 2016, and the Giants have been bad against opposing tight ends for quite some time now. As the week unfolds, lets see if we can find enough cheap options to afford paying up for Reed.
DeAngelo Williams, $7,500: At present, I don't like many of the running back matchups in Week 3 - though that might change with the numerous injury issues throughout the league - so I might have to pay up for DAW. The Steelers sure haven't been shy about giving Williams a full workload, and this is the last week for them to do so before LeVeon Bell returns. For similar reasons (the lack of cheap options with good matchups), David Johnson is viable at $7,700 against a reeling Bills team. But let's see what happens this week in the backfields of Minnesota, Tampa, Seattle, Miami and Carolina; cheap options may emerge.
Jared Cook, $2,900: The Lions have already allowed four touchdowns to tight ends. Cook has been quiet so far, but if I'm paying up at running back, I might have to go cheap here. The floor is low, but Cook has 2-TD upside at a bargain basement price.
Sammy Watkins, $6,100: I know I shouldn't, and in cash, I won't. But I can't write this column without noting the Bills just fired their OC and essentially directed his replacement to get the ball to Watkins. Playing Arizona, game flow should ensure lots of passing, too. I won't pull the trigger in cash, but I will be astounded if Watkins doesn't see 10(+) targets in Week 3 (presuming he can stay on the field), making him, at minimum, GPP viable.
Seahawks D/ST, $4,100: The set-up is almost identical to what we just saw with the Panthers in Week 2, as Seattle gets a home matchup with the Niners to cure its woes. $4,100 is pricy for a defense, so if you can't afford it, then the Bucs are $3,100 in a bounce-back spot against a Rams team that has yet to score a touchdown, the Dolphins are just $3,000 against a Browns offense that might be starting its third-string QB, or a better-than-we-realized Steelers defense is just $2,900 and facing a rookie QB.
Check my Twitter feed, @MarkStopa, for more thoughts during the week.
