It's that time of year. Players are reporting to training camp in the best shape of their respective lives. Veterans are trying to hold off rookies. So-and-so is battling that-one-dude for a starting job in a fancy scheme that tantalizes the fantasy football community. I'm here again to monitor those things and the corresponding fluctuations in draft position as we get closer to kickoff weekend.
Now that most of the major roster moves have been made and storylines written, fantasy football ADP have stabilized somewhat heading into camp. Below are some stocks that haven't corrected from being under-ranked early in the process. The ADP data comes from NFFC, which is always PPR.
Demaryius Thomas
ADP: 24 | WR16
Thomas has garnered no love during this offseason, so I feel obliged to send some his way, because he's still a monster. Somehow his 105/1304/6 line in 2015 wasn't enough for fantasy owners. Much of the reason the fantasy community is down on Thomas is due to an uncertain quarterback situation, but lot of people don't realize how bad Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler were for the Broncos last season. They even admit it on their own website. There's a chance that some combination of Mark Sanchez, Trevor Siemian and rookie Paxton Lynch will be an upgrade at QB and even if Thomas' reception totals come down a bit, his fluky-low touchdown numbers should rebound. I would certainly draft Thomas over some of the receivers going earlier in the second round like Brandon Cooks (WR8), Keenan Allen (WR9), Jordy Nelson (WR9) and Alshon Jeffrey (WR10).
Jamaal Charles
ADP: 26 | RB7
A few factors contribute to Charles' undervalued ADP. First, and the most obvious, is he's recovering from his second torn ACL. That is a real concern and bears monitoring, but from all reports, everything is on track with the knee. If that continues, we should see the former No.1 overall fantasy asset's ADP creep up as he gets closer to the field in week 1. Another factor is the popularity of Zero RB strategies further spurred on by an overreaction to draft busts. Imagine if I told you this time last year that you could potentially draft Charles, Adrian Peterson and Eddie Lacy without coughing up a first round pick?
Eddie Lacy
ADP: 30 | RB9
I guess we'll get the "best shape of his life" story out of the way. Well-documented weight issues seriously dogged Lacy in 2015, resulting in career-worst numbers across the board. It was a wake-up call for the fourth-year back, who lost in the neighborhood of 20 pounds this spring thanks to his P90X workouts. Take advantage of the third round price tag for a guy who averaged 1100 rushing yards, 40 catches and 12 total touchdown in his first two seasons. I'm buying that an in-shape, motivated Lacy will be that RB1 workhorse again and not become the NFL's version of Pablo Sandoval.
Eric Decker
ADP: 47 | WR29
If you zig while others are zagging and take some early running backs, then you'll need some value at wide receiver later. Enter Eric Decker -- the annually underrated fantasy performer. He's still second fiddle to Brandon Marshall and he's still catching passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick in New York, which is fine, because you can still get a boring old 80/1000/10 season from Decker. Just another top-20 finish among wide receivers.
Torrey Smith
ADP: 99 | WR44
Smith was probably the most criminally underrated player in the league after initial rankings came out for 2016. His stock has rebounded from the 13th round range to just sneaking into the top-100, but that is still too low. As the obvious No. 1 pass-catching option in San Francisco, the 27-year-old should approach his 2013 totals of 65/1125/4, if not the gaudy statistics DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin amassed under Chip Kelly in Philadelphia. The 49ers will go from the slowest paced team in football to probably the highest volume offense in the league, so there should be tons of value on this roster, including RB Carlos Hyde (if he can stay healthy), slot receiver Bruce Ellington and whoever wins the starting jobs at QB, TE and the other outside WR spot.
Kenneth Dixon
ADP: 147 | RB46
I recommend owning numerous pieces of the Baltimore backfield in PPR leagues as long as Marc Trestman is the offensive coordinator. Justin Forsett and Buck Allen are cheap too, but I'm propping up Dixon here because I think he's the most talented all-around back and will earn the largest share of touches in the Ravens backfield at some point in the second half of the season -- if not sooner. Dixon has been dinged up this summer, but his combination of receiving skills and nose for the endzone (87 TD's at Louisiana Tech) gets my attention.
Rishard Matthews
ADP: 149 | WR60
While it's exciting to chase the raw tools of players like Dorial Green-Beckham, the smart money is on Matthews leading the Titans in targets on the outside in 2016 after singing a three-year deal in the offseason. Matthews broke out with the Dolphins in 2015 and was on a thousand yard pace before a rib injury cut his season short at 11 games.
Jordan Cameron
ADP: 159 | TE19
The former basketball player has put up two pedestrian seasons following his breakout 2013 in Cleveland when he went for 80/917/7. For Cameron, the ceiling is still high and incoming Dolphins head coach Adam Gase could help him reach it once again. Cameron took a pay cut to play for Gase, who coaxed two top-10 seasons from Julius Thomas in Denver and targeted the Bears combo of Martellus Bennett and Zach Miller even more heavily in 2015. The floor is high with Cameron too, as he's very likely to at least give you a middling TE2 season, which is what you're paying for with a 13th round pick.