Fresh off the heels of Tout Wars weekend (you can read all three recaps from DVR, Liss and myself), the Yahoo Friends & Family Experts draftoccurred immediately after our XM show this afternoon.
I love this league, because it has a few unique settings, a lot of great players, and it's open to innovation. It's a one-catcher league, along four outfielders instead of five, two UT spots, just three bench spots and two DL spots. There's a 1,400-innings cap, flexible roster requirements - you don't *have* to field a full lineup on any given day - and it has the most lenient position qualifications in the industry. Most importantly, there are daily moves - free agents have to picked up the day before you use them, but you can shuttle a player from active to reserve on any given day, maximizing your lineups. It's not unlimited streaming, however - besides the innings cap, there's a max of 162 per hitter roster spot, and a cap of 125 moves total.
We discussed over the two previous years how the NFBC was at the leading edge of drafting starting pitchers early (2014 article, 2015 article), and how the industry has been hesitant to embrace that trend. Not everybody in F&F plays that way - Chris Liss and Dalton Del Don stand out in particular - but because of the streaming rules and that industry reticence, the top starting pitchers tend to fall farther into the draft than in other leagues of similar size.
Chris and I have been batting around on the show the idea of taking the NFBC strategy of two ace starters one step farther, and go with at least three in the first five rounds. If ace starters are reliable investments, and the class of aces is larger than before, maybe it's a viable plan to place more investments in that class? What are the advantages to that plan?
- Roster Management - If you have multiple ace starters that can be used for the vast majority of their starts, then you'll have fewer decisions to make with borderline matchups on mid-tier starters, without losing ground on wins and strikeouts in your league. Moreover, when your ace does have that rare Coors Field start, you'll have fewer regrets about missing one of his starts. Three of my four aces are NL pitchers, which was by design to avoid AL lineups on a regular basis.
- Redundancy - Usually if you lose an ace to an injury, it's a devastating event (it's also a devastating event when you lose an elite hitter, but I digress). It's not nearly as devastating if you have others to fall back on.
- Draft Flexibility - Once I got my four aces, I had the freedom to ignore starting pitching the rest of the way. That's a double-edged sword, but my plan after landing my fourth starter was to just pound hitting so that I had extra hitters at each spot, the better to use up all 162 games at every offensive spot.
- Four-Category Dominance - This is the big one. I should have a top-3 team in Wins, Strikeouts, and especially in ERA and WHIP. If the starters perform as they are expected, I've got a floor of 800 innings with elite ratios, with the remaining innings being spent on closers and optimized matchups. Finishing first in ERA and WHIP will be tough, because Scott Pianowski drafted roster that has *no* starters, only closers and other elite K/9 relievers. He did this last year, though he eventually added starters midseason.
Of course, this isn't a risk-free plan. What are the disadvantages?
- Few Elite Hitters - By definition, every starting pitcher taken early comes at the expense of snagging a first or second-tier hitter. I'm hoping that some of my hitters are going to graduate to the next level, but the certainty that I have in the pitching categories are in question with my hitters. I'm going to have to tackle the hitting categories with volume, which also means I'm less likely to contend in batting average.
- No Bargain Taking Among SP - One argument against taking starting pitchers early is the notion that the starting pitching pool is deep, and the opportunity to grab lots of late value is plentiful. The risk of taking them is less, and the cost of cutting them if they implode is less.
- Inability To Corner the Market - Even though I grabbed what I believe to be four aces, the supply of those that qualify as such is greater, so not everyone in the league will be deprived of elite ratios.
Another argument used against taking early aces is that many good pitchers will emerge from the waiver wire in a 12-team mixed league during the course of the season. That's of course true, but there's nothing stopping me from trying to claim them as well, either to use or to create trade inventory.
Here's who I took, in the order I drafted them, with a few select comments:
1.11 - Giancarlo Stanton - In retrospect, it might have been more optimal going with a safer hitter in conjunction with my strategy. I also considered Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts and Andrew McCutchen for this spot, ensuring that Andy "TCCB" Behrens would get his precious Kris Bryant.
2.2 - Max Scherzer
3.11 - Jake Arrieta - Arrieta's presence here emboldened me to embark on this plan. In contrast, the latest that Arrieta has fallen in the NFBC is 31st overall.
4.2 - Jose Fernandez - Fernandez is great for this strategy, as there is an innings cap, so his personal innings cap isn't as hurtful.
5.11 - Prince Fielder
6.2 - Dallas Keuchel - This might have been overkill, but I couldn't pass up this value when I was already down this strategy path.
7.11 - Hunter Pence
8.2 - Zach Britton
9.11 - Ian Kinsler - This is the first time all season I've drafted Kinsler.
10.2 - David Peralta
11.11 - Ian Desmond
12.2 - Byung-ho Park - Welcome back home.
13.11 - Brett Gardner
14.2 - Drew Storen - I might have been the last to take a second closer, and I later backed him up with Osuna.
15.11 - Alex Gordon
16.2 - Josh Harrison - Gulp, my starting 3B. It's strange, though - last year I was about as down on him relative to ADP as anyone, but I wasn't necessarily right. His injury made it correct to fade him, but his performance late indicated that not all of 2014 was a fluke.
17.11 - Roberto Osuna
18.2 - Jung-Ho Kang
19.11 - Nick Castellanos
20.2 - J.T. Realmuto
21.11 - Ketel Marte
22.2 - Victor Martinez
23.11 - Eddie Rosario
24.2 - Brandon Maurer - Maurer just got moved back to the bullpen, where I think that he'll ultimately have more value.
25.11 - Yasmani Grandal - It's a one-catcher league, but I want to have an active catcher virtually every night. Better to start off with two that I like than relying on the waiver wire.
26.2 - Trevor Plouffe
And here's my team by position:
C - J.T. Realmuto, Yasmani Grandal
1B/3B/CR - Prince Fielder, Josh Harrison, Byung-ho Park
2B/SS/MI - Ian Kinsler, Ian Desmond, Ketel Marte
OF - Giancarlo Stanton, Hunter Pence, David Peralta, Brett Gardner
UT - Alex Gordon, Nick Castellanos (though frequently I'll use him at 3B and move Harrison to MI)
R - Victor Martinez, Eddie Rosario, Trevor Plouffe, Jung-Ho Kang
SP - Max Scherzer, Jake Arrieta, Jose Fernandez, Dallas Keuchel
RP - Zach Britton, Drew Storen, Roberto Osuna, Brandon Maurer
I'll be able to add another hitter or high-strikeout reliever as soon as Kang goes on the DL. I'll be using most of my moves on hitters and RPs as they emerge.
This was a fun draft, and I think it'll be a fun team to manage over the course of the season. You should try an extreme draft strategy at least once in your fantasy career, and you're best off trying it the more the unique the format, such as this league.