Steamer Dollar Values (Hitting)

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Published on January 28, 2016

For part 2 of my baseball prep, I downloaded the Steamer projections from Fangraphs, ran them through my valuation formula, then translated them to dollar values based on a 68/32 hitting/pitching split for a 12-team mixed league with a $260 budget and 14 active hitters. Keep in mind the Steamer projections are conservative by nature and will miss the big breakouts, but it is the most accurate system on Fangraphs over the last couple years and a good resource for creating a baseline, especially for players whose skills are less likely to change abruptly.

Here are the results:

Player	AB	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	$
Mike Trout	539	36	103	103	15	0.307	0.41	47.50
Bryce Harper	519	34	95	99	7	0.301	0.412	39.51
Mookie Betts	604	19	100	76	26	0.3	0.361	35.87
Paul Goldschmidt	545	30	93	93	14	0.29	0.401	35.80
Miguel Cabrera	517	26	86	92	2	0.314	0.398	33.98
Anthony Rizzo	552	32	92	99	10	0.279	0.374	33.84
Jose Abreu	579	34	88	102	2	0.286	0.35	33.10
Jose Altuve	630	11	92	64	36	0.307	0.35	33.06
Giancarlo Stanton	484	38	84	96	7	0.277	0.372	32.16
Manny Machado	598	27	90	87	14	0.285	0.345	31.35
Andrew McCutchen	555	23	88	87	12	0.297	0.395	31.28
Nolan Arenado	589	30	84	98	5	0.289	0.333	31.24
Kris Bryant	549	31	87	96	11	0.273	0.36	30.56
Josh Donaldson	578	30	96	93	4	0.274	0.352	29.66
Justin Upton	555	28	85	91	13	0.27	0.351	27.79
Starling Marte	574	18	78	74	27	0.286	0.34	26.36
Jason Heyward	578	18	91	72	18	0.284	0.362	25.79
Carlos Correa	569	22	80	82	20	0.275	0.339	25.49
Chris Davis	540	38	85	97	3	0.245	0.338	25.21
Prince Fielder	552	23	82	89	1	0.29	0.371	24.76
A.J. Pollock	608	15	86	64	28	0.282	0.337	24.50
J.D. Martinez	553	28	78	91	4	0.273	0.33	23.52
Jose Bautista	493	31	84	90	5	0.257	0.37	23.33
Adam Jones	596	27	77	90	4	0.272	0.31	22.43
Yasiel Puig	507	22	77	75	10	0.285	0.359	21.96
Xander Bogaerts	587	16	79	79	7	0.293	0.343	21.67
Edwin Encarnacion	467	30	77	88	3	0.265	0.356	21.50
Miguel Sano	509	32	78	90	4	0.255	0.344	21.48
Ryan Braun	522	23	72	78	15	0.276	0.341	21.47
Joey Votto	496	21	84	73	7	0.283	0.418	21.47
Charlie Blackmon	545	15	79	59	29	0.279	0.333	21.29
Corey Dickerson	482	23	69	77	6	0.293	0.338	21.20
Dee Gordon	598	3	76	44	51	0.284	0.325	20.90
Freddie Freeman	534	23	77	81	3	0.283	0.374	20.84
Todd Frazier	571	27	77	87	13	0.25	0.318	20.68
Nelson Cruz	549	31	76	92	3	0.255	0.321	20.63
George Springer	508	26	79	76	16	0.256	0.343	20.51
Eric Hosmer	574	18	75	82	6	0.285	0.348	19.93
Robinson Cano	587	18	77	81	5	0.285	0.344	19.89
Buster Posey	497	17	68	73	2	0.306	0.373	19.41
Adrian Beltre	532	19	71	82	1	0.291	0.344	18.97
Carlos Gonzalez	468	27	68	80	4	0.276	0.336	18.77
David Ortiz	474	25	74	83	1	0.272	0.358	18.29
Adrian Gonzalez	556	24	74	84	1	0.272	0.337	18.09
Albert Pujols	531	27	72	86	4	0.26	0.32	17.91
Kyle Seager	569	22	77	80	7	0.265	0.332	17.83
Billy Hamilton	547	8	66	45	62	0.25	0.301	17.61
Yoenis Cespedes	550	26	69	83	6	0.259	0.305	16.57
Gregory Polanco	577	14	78	58	26	0.263	0.328	16.12
Christian Yelich	524	12	75	56	16	0.288	0.361	15.93
Rougned Odor	535	18	70	71	12	0.273	0.321	15.73
Evan Longoria	583	24	74	84	3	0.256	0.323	15.68
Lorenzo Cain	531	11	66	64	21	0.283	0.334	15.49
Kyle Schwarber	477	25	72	76	5	0.261	0.345	15.46
David Peralta	545	16	69	72	8	0.281	0.334	15.19
Jacoby Ellsbury	543	14	76	55	26	0.264	0.323	15.15
Matt Carpenter	577	16	89	62	6	0.269	0.363	15.03
Ben Revere	545	2	66	43	29	0.303	0.336	14.67
Brian Dozier	593	20	83	71	13	0.241	0.32	14.39
Ian Kinsler	595	14	81	66	10	0.269	0.318	14.35
Melky Cabrera	577	14	76	68	3	0.283	0.334	14.05
Hunter Pence	542	19	67	74	9	0.267	0.323	13.77
Carlos Gomez	504	17	68	66	21	0.256	0.316	13.48
Khris Davis	506	27	67	79	6	0.247	0.316	13.47
Matt Kemp	526	21	64	73	8	0.268	0.325	13.46
Francisco Lindor	589	12	73	62	19	0.268	0.319	13.45
Daniel Murphy	490	9	63	58	6	0.308	0.35	13.45
Maikel Franco	529	22	64	75	3	0.272	0.315	13.41
Delino Deshields	567	8	79	50	36	0.25	0.326	13.20
Hanley Ramirez	426	18	61	67	7	0.284	0.345	13.19
Kole Calhoun	564	21	76	70	5	0.259	0.316	13.17
Alex Gordon	527	17	73	67	7	0.271	0.355	13.12
Adam Eaton	568	10	80	54	17	0.272	0.343	12.85
Anthony Rendon	516	15	76	61	6	0.277	0.35	12.68
Josh Reddick	514	20	66	74	7	0.263	0.325	12.47
Shin-Soo Choo	508	17	80	63	6	0.263	0.365	12.15
Victor Martinez	475	15	63	69	1	0.289	0.35	11.98
Jason Kipnis	543	11	75	58	16	0.267	0.342	11.48
Mark Trumbo	510	26	66	75	2	0.252	0.307	11.43
Josh Harrison	545	10	66	57	15	0.282	0.321	11.30
Curtis Granderson	553	23	82	63	10	0.232	0.329	11.24
Kendrys Morales	523	18	67	74	1	0.27	0.334	11.23
DJ LeMahieu	557	6	67	54	17	0.287	0.338	11.06
Kevin Pillar	497	11	59	61	17	0.279	0.315	10.79
Dustin Pedroia	502	11	70	60	6	0.284	0.347	10.78
Evan Gattis	494	26	65	77	1	0.248	0.296	10.57
Wil Myers	512	20	65	66	10	0.256	0.329	10.19
Carlos Santana	509	20	74	73	7	0.239	0.362	10.12
Matt Holliday	466	16	65	66	3	0.274	0.367	9.67
Billy Burns	574	4	71	45	32	0.264	0.317	9.60
Mike Moustakas	528	19	67	70	2	0.262	0.322	9.55
Joc Pederson	496	24	71	66	12	0.228	0.34	9.55
Corey Seager	541	17	67	66	5	0.265	0.315	9.47
Brett Gardner	526	13	74	57	15	0.256	0.331	9.40
Jay Bruce	516	23	63	74	8	0.235	0.305	8.45
Howie Kendrick	502	10	61	55	6	0.29	0.336	8.31
Brandon Belt	467	17	59	67	7	0.265	0.34	8.29
Gerardo Parra	447	10	56	53	10	0.291	0.336	8.18
Troy Tulowitzki	466	19	67	65	2	0.26	0.334	8.10
Nick Castellanos	519	16	62	67	3	0.269	0.321	8.08
Marcell Ozuna	493	17	59	67	4	0.267	0.318	7.66
Ben Zobrist	469	12	70	54	6	0.273	0.356	7.54
Marcus Semien	518	16	66	64	10	0.251	0.318	7.47
Kolten Wong	524	12	60	58	16	0.264	0.316	7.41
Matt Duffy	541	10	59	60	10	0.276	0.323	7.14
Pablo Sandoval	474	14	59	64	1	0.278	0.33	7.01
Elvis Andrus	538	5	61	53	24	0.267	0.323	7.01
Neil Walker	503	18	67	62	3	0.258	0.329	7.01
Kevin Kiermaier	531	11	61	59	16	0.261	0.306	6.90
Randal Grichuk	487	20	59	70	6	0.249	0.295	6.90
Mark Teixeira	438	25	64	72	2	0.233	0.328	6.76
Starlin Castro	537	13	60	63	7	0.267	0.308	6.42
Michael Conforto	482	19	58	66	3	0.26	0.321	6.32
Lucas Duda	467	23	64	70	2	0.238	0.34	6.27
Dexter Fowler	502	12	73	48	15	0.25	0.347	5.72
Byron Buxton	462	11	59	49	21	0.258	0.309	5.37
Alcides Escobar	608	5	68	49	19	0.262	0.297	5.29
Ian Desmond	536	17	59	66	13	0.236	0.294	5.06
Eddie Rosario	503	13	56	60	13	0.258	0.292	5.06
Ender Inciarte	513	7	59	43	20	0.273	0.315	5.02
Brandon Phillips	530	12	57	58	10	0.266	0.306	4.98
Yasmany Tomas	481	16	53	64	6	0.263	0.302	4.94
Jhonny Peralta	507	14	59	65	3	0.262	0.327	4.67
Mitch Moreland	463	19	59	66	1	0.253	0.313	4.62
Justin Turner	456	12	58	56	5	0.273	0.338	4.51
Brian McCann	445	23	59	67	1	0.241	0.312	4.46
Jorge Soler	441	17	55	63	4	0.26	0.324	4.41
Odubel Herrera	564	8	61	47	17	0.266	0.313	4.38
Nick Markakis	577	9	70	53	3	0.269	0.34	4.24
Denard Span	489	5	64	40	17	0.275	0.335	4.23
Jung-ho Kang	465	15	55	62	6	0.26	0.32	4.05
Jonathan Lucroy	467	12	60	54	3	0.273	0.339	3.92
Michael Brantley	348	9	46	46	8	0.295	0.359	3.92
Cory Spangenberg	546	8	61	47	19	0.26	0.309	3.90
Jose Reyes	355	6	47	36	15	0.298	0.343	3.89
Nori Aoki	503	6	64	44	15	0.27	0.332	3.80
Ketel Marte	501	5	57	44	22	0.269	0.312	3.75
Erick Aybar	569	6	59	52	13	0.271	0.309	3.74
Alex Rodriguez	462	19	62	66	3	0.239	0.333	3.73
Logan Forsythe	510	13	62	59	7	0.254	0.327	3.63
Justin Bour	460	18	55	64	2	0.256	0.318	3.62
Joe Mauer	493	9	62	56	2	0.274	0.355	3.50
Trevor Plouffe	495	17	60	65	2	0.249	0.314	3.47
Stephen Piscotty	478	11	57	55	7	0.267	0.327	3.09
Trea Turner	415	7	47	44	17	0.282	0.325	3.01
Salvador Perez	450	15	50	59	1	0.273	0.302	2.96
Jonathan Schoop	466	20	54	62	3	0.249	0.288	2.85
Chase Headley	489	14	59	60	3	0.258	0.334	2.84
Steven Souza	427	17	55	56	14	0.239	0.317	2.68
Joe Panik	506	7	62	48	4	0.278	0.337	2.47
Adam Lind	416	15	53	57	1	0.268	0.342	2.30
Addison Russell	484	14	56	60	9	0.247	0.307	2.16
Billy Butler	468	13	56	59	1	0.263	0.333	1.70
Brett Lawrie	434	16	52	57	4	0.256	0.309	1.18
Jose Iglesias	444	4	50	46	13	0.28	0.327	1.18
Jean Segura	484	7	50	44	20	0.263	0.297	0.90
C.J. Cron	422	16	49	58	3	0.259	0.298	0.83
Martin Prado	489	9	54	54	2	0.273	0.325	0.78
Ryan Zimmerman	387	15	49	57	2	0.263	0.328	0.62
Yunel Escobar	521	8	61	51	3	0.266	0.327	0.47
Jayson Werth	392	13	51	53	3	0.266	0.35	0.37
Stephen Vogt	428	13	52	56	2	0.26	0.326	-0.21

As I mentioned in the pitching post, this isn't a cheat sheet per se - it's not adjusted for position scarcity, and it's only the baseline created by Steamer's formula, not a reflection of which players have more upside or what might happen if someone got more or less playing time.

Moreover, there are a lot of players who will be drafted that are below zero on my larger list including, but not limited to: Matt Adams, Russell Martin, David Wright, Cameron Maybin, Devin Mesoraco, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Brandon Crawford and Javier Baez. Steamer doesn't like them much, but they either qualify at a scarce spot or have considerable upside.

Looking at the top of the board, I was surprised to see the margin by which Mike Trout was No. 1. After that Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts and Paul Goldschmidt form a Tier 2. Then there's a large Tier 3 starting with Miguel Cabrera and finishing with Josh Donaldson.

Players Steamer seems to love: Betts, Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Jose Altuve, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Prince Fielder. Players it hates (relative to ADP) include: Carlos Correa, A.J. Pollock and George Springer.