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Box Score Breakdown — Getting Back To The Basics

For those unaware, I began writing for the Fantasy Hoops Daily three years ago before joining RotoWire. A trip down memory lane reminded me how far I've come and how I can improve on the current Box Score Breakdown format. I'm inclined to recapture the essence of what made my time at Fantasy Hoops Daily successful. Rather than bore with in-depth analysis capturing the minutiae, I'll provide concise content in an unstructured fashion. I'll write about trends, schedule quirks, and statistical anomalies while projecting a light-hearted demeanor. In essence, you'll get a condensed recap of events without the default regurgitating of stat lines from the night's action.

INJURY NOTES

It's the time of the season where a minor injury could force a player to sit out through the All-Star break, giving them nearly three weeks to recover. Anyone who's ruled out the next 1-2 weeks is a likely candidate to miss extended time and return after the trade deadline. Most teams play no more than eight games between now and the break.

Paul Millsap sprained an ankle and walked off under his own power. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Millsap wants to see how he feels tomorrow before committing to a firm timeline. He hasn't missed a game due to injury this season, sitting out one for personal reasons. If Millsap doesn't play Sunday or Monday, his next chance to return would be next Wednesday against the Sixers. Most players return from injuries against the Sixers, and based on the severity, I envision Millsap missing no more than three games. Tiago Splitter started the second half, but Thabo Sefolosha closed out the game guarding the opposing power forward. Splitter plays fewer minutes when he starts as opposed to coming off the bench and he's averaging 16 minutes per game this season. Sefolosha is the likely beneficiary as well as Mike Scott, who mostly relies on points and three-pointers to earn his paycheck.

Otto Porter sustained right hip tightness in the third quarter and didn't return. He recently missed four games with a sore right hip. A prolonged absence may move Bradley Beal back into the starting lineup. It also extends the fantasy shelf life of Garrett Temple. Don't let anyone tell you he's useless. Over the last 15 games, Temple has played 32 minutes per game and averaged 11.1 points 2.6 assists, and 1.8 three-pointers. Those are numbers comparable to Wesley Matthews since the start of December. Both the floor and ceiling are low, but Temple's consistency and ability to knock down three-pointers at a 40-percent clip will yield plenty of value at the end of your bench. Additionally, the Wizards play seven times before the All-Star break.

THURSDAY NOTES

Myles Turner joined the starting lineup for the first time in his career, playing next to Ian Mahinmi and scrapping the C.J. Miles experiment that worked out so well the first month and a half of the season. I don't think Turner has missed a shot over the past week. He's shooting 60 percent in January, buoyed 81 percent in the restricted area and 52 percent from the mid-range zone (shot chart below). Turner's emergence has chipped into C.J. Miles' and Jordan Hill's minutes. Miles is having troubles with his shoulder and Hill's troubles start and end on the defensive side of the court. Coach Vogel sounds committed to developing Turner and instituting the traditional lineup with two bigs. Turner has been incredible in pick-and-pop situations as the center, and moving to power forward didn't affect his ability to knock down open shots. Once the scouting report circulates the league, the efficiency will drop. Plus, he's shooting at unsustainable levels. Nevertheless, Turner blocks enough shots to make him a top priority if he's still available.

[caption id="attachment_11451" align="aligncenter" width="468"]Myles Turner January Shot Chart Myles Turner January Shot Chart[/caption]

George Hill is a player I'm targeting where possible. He's reverting to the role he manned when Lance Stephenson was compiling triple-doubles for the Pacers. Hill's usage rate, 16.1 percent, is the second-lowest of his career, behind only his 2013-14 season. Playing alongside Monta Ellis and Paul George forces Hill to stand in the corner on most offensive sets. However, coach Vogel chided Hill earlier this month about his passive nature. Compounding the malaise was an upper respiratory infection that affected Hill in November, an issue that weakened his conditioning. Now that he's healthier and motivated, I'm going after Hill because his fantasy production doesn't rival his name value. Also, the Pacers possess a quality second-half schedule.

Paul George shot 2-of-11 and was held scoreless in the first half after committing three fouls in 10 minutes. Coach Vogel mentioned reducing George's minutes as the season shrinks to increase his effectiveness. George hit a shooting slump back in December and still hasn't recovered. He's shooting a season-low 32 percent on three-pointers in January, but the rest of his supporting stats place him at second-round fantasy value. And wouldn't you know it. After personally begging for an increase in blocks at the start of the season, George is up to 0.6 blocks per game in January.

Emmanuel Mudiay made half his shots for the first time since November 20th. He's also converted 15-of-18 from the free-throw line in the past four games, which bring up his January mark to 63 percent. Mudiay is shooting 33 percent from the field this season. Behold his shot chart:

[caption id="attachment_11434" align="aligncenter" width="468"]Emmanuel Mudiay Shot Chart Emmanuel Mudiay Shot Chart[/caption]

Danilo Gallinari can't be traded until February 2nd because of the extension he signed at the beginning of the season. I don't know if the front office wants to unload him now that they are competing for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference, but it's something to monitor. Will Barton has played much better without Gallinari, and a trade would open up more possessions and minutes for him.

Nikola Jokic continues to outplay his center counterparts, even if his defense leaves much to be desired. He's played more than 25 minutes only seven times this season due to the glut of centers. Last night's 15 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, one steal, and one block in 25 minutes was cut short due to five fouls. He played through bruised right knee and barely saw the court over the final 16 minutes. Coach Malone will occasionally use Kenneth Faried as the center, adding to the list of competitors Jokic must fend off. He's one of the craftiest passing big men, with vision and touch that reminds me a smidge of Vlade Divac. I don't think Jusuf Nurkic can play five straight minutes in Denver without getting winded, especially after spending the entire offseason rehabbing instead of conditioning. Jokic is the man for now, so act accordingly.

Bradley Beal returned to the rotation after missing one game due to a concussion. He's still coming off the bench and he hasn't played more than 26 minutes in any game this month. In limited playing time, Beal is shooting 50 percent from the field and 45.5 percent on threes in the last six games. He's played most of his minutes with floor spacers and posted a career-high 28 percent usage rate. Beal still hasn't played in back-to-back games since returning from a stress reaction, but we'll learn by the end of the week whether he's thrust back into the starting lineup and if he's allowed to play both legs of a back-to-back. The Wizards are scheduled for the most games after January, assuming their postponed game against the Jazz gets rescheduled.

Marcin Gortat didn't play the final quarter. Each team averaged out at 111 possessions per 48 minutes in the fourth, 12 possessions more than the fourth-quarter league leaders. Coach Wittman preferred to move Nene Hilario to center and run Jared Dudley at power forward in the uptempo stanza.  Wittman enacted a similar method last season when Hilario and Kris Humpries were healthy. In January, Gortat is averaging a team-low 5.4 fourth-quarter minutes, which is slightly better than his 5.1 fourth-quarter minutes in November. Because of the precedent, it's worth monitoring until Hilario succumbs to another injury and Wittman is forced to use Gortat.

No Carmelo Anthony (sore knee), Kristaps Porzingis (upper respiratory infection), and Jose Calderon (groin) opened up shots for Sasha Vujacic, the ultimate nightmare for Knicks fans. Langston Galloway, Lance Thomas, and Kyle O'Quinn slid into the starting lineup and Arron Afflalo led the bunch with 20 points and three three-pointers in 38 minutes. Anthony sat out with the intention of playing on Friday against the Suns. If he can't suit up tonight, look for him to play Sunday against the Warriors.

Jerian Grant played 28 minutes off the bench, leading the Knicks' reserves, and dialed up 13 points, a team-high six assists, and a team-high two steals. He was able to get to the rim at will, but he only converted 4-of-9 free-throws. Grant is shooting less than 16 percent on three-pointers this season, but his presence, combined with Galloway's, allowed the Knicks to push the pace. I don't know how much time Calderon will miss if any, but Galloway is the target in that case.

Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan each scored 26 points. Lowry added 10 assists, six rebounds, and three steals and both played over 36 minutes. DeRozan has played at least 33 minutes in for the 37th straight game, the longest active streak in the league. Jonas Valanciunas added 11 points and 18 rebounds but shot 4-of-16 because most of his misses were tip-backs that wouldn't fall. There was one sequence at the end of the first half where Valanciunas was credited with four offensive rebounds and three missed shots in a span of two seconds as he played volleyball on the glass.

Giannis Antetokounmpo accrued one technical foul during the fourth quarter and was subsequently tossed by the official. He played 35 minutes and only registered seven points and seven rebounds while shooting 2-of-10. There's an outside chance coach Kidd disciplines Antetokounmpo for staring down the ref. We'll find out tonight when the Bucks face the Heat.

Khris Middleton failed to reach 20 points for the first time in eight games. Instead, Greg Monroe scored 21 points fourth the fourth straight game and grabbed seven boards in 25 minutes.

Jerryd Bayless failed to make a three-pointer for the first time in 27 games. I have a funny feeling he'll become fantasy relevant soon enough, especially with Jason Kidd back coaching the team. For the second straight season, Bayless leads the team in fourth-quarter minutes, and his ability to space the floor bodes well for extended playing time. Keep an eye on him for now.

Jeff Green continues to explode as a reserve, thus limiting minutes for Courtney Lee, Tony Allen, and Matt Barnes. When all four are healthy, coach Joerger has done the smart thing and played the hot hand. Green exhibits that hot hand infrequently, and according to Marc Stein, Green and Lee are on the trade block. Barnes scored all 13 of his points in the fourth quarter with the game well in hand. His 25 minutes placed him at the back of the seven-man rotation and loosened his grip in standard leagues. I'm still holding him on my teams until he's cooked.

Mario Chalmers added a team-high 10 assists, six of which occurred in the fourth quarter, and is averaging 6.5 assists in January. Aside from bulk assists, Chalmers doesn't play enough minutes or produce much in the other categories to take advantage of the assist influx.

Ben McLemore scored 26 points and hit five threes in 31 minutes. Most nights, McLemore doesn't contribute enough to get more than 20 minutes. The last two times he reached double-digit scoring were the last two times he played at least 28 minutes.

Rajon Rondo handed out 15 assists in 38 minutes and DeMarcus Cousins contributed 26 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, a season-high five blocks, one steal, and five turnovers in 41 minutes. I know I mentioned I wasn't going to quote stat lines verbatim, but that required acknowledgment.

Tyreke Evans (knee) didn't play and Bryce DeJean-Jones started in his place. Even when Evans returns, coach Gentry wants to limit him to 24 minutes a night, the same treatment former coach Monty Williams instilled during the first half of Evans' first season with the team. If you don't remember, Evans was infuriating to own at that point because he was positionless and could never find a rhythm. He'll either get traded or shutdown before the end of the season, so start shopping him now before the expiration date.

Ryan Anderson scored 30 of his career-high 36 points in the first half and made five three-pointers. He added nine rebounds and four assists in 40 minutes. Anthony Davis (concussion) was not cleared in time to participate, and it was Anderson who slotted into the starting lineup. According to Marc Stein, many teams are inquiring about Anderson's services. Anderson is a limited fantasy player. Take advantage while you can.

Norris Cole supplied nine assists in the first half and finished the game with 17 points, 10 assists, and seven rebounds in 38 minutes. Six of his first-half assists were Anderson buckets. As you can deduce, Anderson only scored six points in the second half and Cole only notched one assist in the second half. Don't expect many more double-digit assist games from Cole. That doesn't mean I'm completely ignoring him. Evans' healthy makes Cole a worthy candidate in 12-team leagues until a resolution is met.

Jrue Holiday soaked up most of Evans' duties and attempted a season-high 24 shots, leading to 25 points in 34 minutes. Holiday will likely overtake Evans in fantasy value by the end of the season due to the circumstances. He just needs to avoid a stress reaction in his leg for the third straight season.

Jimmy Butler has played less than 32 minutes two previous times this season. In both instances, he played less than 30 minutes against the Sixers. In 31 minutes last night, Butler provided 26 points, a team-high 10 assists, five rebounds, and four steals. He's still struggling with his three-point shot ever since suffering a heel injury in late November, but he doesn't take enough to damage his overall efficiency.

Bobby Portis, an internet sensation, scored four points, grabbed seven rebounds, and recorded two steals in 22 minutes against the Lakers. Let that sink in. He had a decent run when he was coming off the bench and playing garbage time minutes against incompetent reserves. The blocks, steals, and assists come few and far between. Add to the resume that he's shooting has dipped to 39 percent in January, and it makes sense that coach Hoiberg admitted to trying other options at power forward. He can score and rebound. That's about it.

Coach Hoiberg played all his starters at least 29 minutes and gave Doug McDermott 24 minutes off the bench. E'Twaun Moore replaced Tony Snell in the starting lineup, a move that could stick for now. You don't have to worry about McDermott. He's averaging a combined 1.0 assists, steals and blocks in 22 minutes per game. He's tied with Omer Asik with 42 combined assists, steals, and blocks, and that with 300 more minutes than Asik.

Derrick Rose is shooting 46 percent from the field in January and averaging a monthly low of 3.3 assists per game. He's no longer a complete drag on your percentages, but he doesn't offer a well-rounded game and it's just a matter of time before he knees start acting up.

Julius Randle recorded at least one block, steal, and assist for the eighth time this season, an unimpressive number. He's a double-double threat every night, but he's inefficient while not providing enough peripheral stats. Not to mention his coach, who's limiting Randle to 27 minutes a night. Below is his uninspiring shot chart.

[caption id="attachment_11441" align="aligncenter" width="468"]Julius Randle Shot Chart Julius Randle Shot Chart[/caption]