I thought I might win my playoff matchup in the Stopa $10K league because Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant would step up to offset Dalton Del Don's big projected games from Jameis Winston and Brandin Cooks. I also hoped Travis Benjamin would have a good game against the Niners in my flex and Devonta Freeman would be a huge factor in the passing game against the Panthers, because DDD also had T.J. Yeldon in a great matchup against the Colts.

But Bryant, Johnson, Benjamin and Freeman all failed, and I still won (barring a historic game from DeAndre Hopkins) in large part because Winston, Cooks, Yeldon and his other players had bad games. While we imagine fantasy football is decided by great performances from our key players, in reality it's failure that usually determines our fates.

And it's not merely the failure of players to do what they should. It's the disasters that inhabit every quarter of every game. For example Dalton had Brandon McManus, who made four field goals in the first half, and our matchup was close at that point (I was up 20 with Eddie Lacy and Bryant, and he had McManus and the Denver defense - pitching a shutout at halftime - as well as Hopkins pending.) When the Raiders scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter to put them up three, it was a no-brainer to kick the extra point and make it four. But the Raiders long-snapper was in the locker room with an injury, so they went for two and failed, leaving them up only three. That meant there was a good chance McManus got a shot at a game-tying field-goal, and possibly a game-winning one too. In a close match-up, that could easily have been the difference.

But McManus missed a 49-yard attempt on the next drive, giving me a brief reprieve. When the Raiders drove into field-goal range, I was elated - a six-point lead would again end McManus' chances for a field goal. Of course, the Raiders had a bad snap, and Sebastian Janikowski missed, keeping the margin at three.

When the Broncos got the ball back, the Raiders got them into a fourth-and-five, but Brock Osweiler bought time and made a perfect throw down the field to a wide-open Vernon Davis. The play would have set them up near midfield - had Davis not dropped it.

Then the Raiders again got back into long field-goal range, but Amari Cooper got called for a hold, and they had to punt. In the end, the Broncos never did drive back into field goal range, and McManus never scored in the second half. But the drama was driven by one failure after another.

•  I didn't love the blitz of DFS ads this season, but direct-to-consumer drug commercials are an order of magnitude more annoying and also socially more problematic. When the potential side effects of something are paralysis and death, maybe you shouldn't be hawking it over the airwaves.

• Derek Carr and the Raiders never get despondent. Even after getting minus-12 yards in the entire first half, they made adjustments against the league's best defense, moved the ball and won the game. Khalil Mack's dominant five-sack performance didn't hurt, either.

• Andy Dalton's likely season-ending hand injury is awful. The Bengals were one of the elite teams in the league this year, and now they're toast.

• Thomas Rawls' broken ankle hurts the Seahawks, to be sure, but they'll be okay, and Marshawn Lynch should be back for the playoffs. It's devastating to fantasy owners, however, as Rawls was arguably a top-five back and seemed in line for a massive game.

• Russell Wilson was a disappointment until the weeks ago, and Doug Baldwin was a moderately useful possession receiver with no upside. Now they're like Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. With Rawls out, the Seahawks could remain pass heavy with Baldwin and Tyler Lockett being the prime beneficiaries.

• Once again the Falcons were given way too much respect by the oddsmakers, but after losing 38-0, I'm pretty sure that's over with. Julio Jones was shut down by Josh Norman before getting a few meaningless catches in garbage time. Jones has only two TDs in his last 10 games.

• Todd Gurley broke out of his slump against a Detroit defense that had been stopping the run of late. Maybe having Case Keenum under center makes a difference somehow. In any event, he's once again a top-five back.

• Johnny Manziel had a strong game albeit against a weak 49ers defense. I watched a lot of it, and he looked sharp and in command. If the Browns bring in a coach who will let him be, I think Manziel will work out.

• I started Blake Bortles over Eli Manning, and after a terrible first half, I was worried. But Bortles threw an 80-yard TD to Allen Hurns early in the second half, and his QB sneak for a TD in garbage time was a gift.

• It's too bad Robbie Gould missed another FG because Jay Cutler might have had a monster day had the game gone to overtime. Zach Miller should be treated like a healthy Martellus Bennett.

• My TYT Sports co-host Ben Mankiewicz told me he's been winning money betting the under when divisional rivals meet for the second time, the theory being familiarity helps the defense. While it wasn't the case in the Colts-Jaguars or Steelers-Bengals games, it was for the Saints-Bucs and Chiefs-Chargers. But the Colts-Jags had three defensive/special teams scores, and the Steelers-Bengals had a pick-six. Most of the key skill players Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Allen Robinson still under-performed. I'm not sure how significant it is - I haven't done a long-term study - but it's something I'll keep in mind for DFS with an eye on fading Game 2 of divisional matchups and targeting inter-conference games (less familiarity) instead.

• While Julio Jones has two TDs in his last 10 games, Brandon Marshall has eight. He's a top-10 overall player right now.

• Zach Ertz had a good game, and Nelson Agholor made a big play, but there's no Eagles player you can start with any confidence in Week 15.

• The Patriots are still the favorites to win the Super Bowl in my opinion, now that Rob Gronkowski is healthy and Julian Edelman is on his way back. This year's team has arguably their best offense/defense balance in the Brady era. With Dalton out, and the Broncos losing today, the Patriots should land the No. 1 seed, and the Panthers have a tougher road in the playoffs with the Seahawks and Cardinals in the NFC. (The Steelers would be dangerous if they make it, but as of right now, they're behind the Jets and Chiefs in the Wild Card race.)

• It occurred to me while watching a McDonalds commercial today that the gates of Hell are probably Golden Arches.