The All-Star break is over, as is my summer vacation. The MLB trade deadline isn't too far off, and we've already had two big trades where the in-season talent has flowed over to the AL West, with the A's and the Angels adding to their immediate needs.
We've had some big duds the last couple of trade deadlines on the day itself, and I worry that might be the case again this year. I say "worry" because I love the trade deadline and the chaos that ensues from it. Trades create new opportunities, not just for the players dealt, but for the players remaining that fill the voids left. If you've ever played in an AL-only or NL-only league, you know that sentiment, especially if you were the lucky one to get the windfall from the Jeff Samardzija deal or for Huston Street this weekend.
At any rate, aside from relief pitching, which seems to be the easiest commodity to move, there's a lack of good inventory available. The Rays were once thought to have two of the best trade chits in David Price and Ben Zobrist, but now it's not a sure thing that they'll get traded at all. They are six games back in the wild card race, and 7.5 games back in the AL East. That's no shoo-in, but given that the rest of the AL East seems vulnerable, I wouldn't be surprised if they at the very least went down to the wire before deciding their role. All but three AL teams are within six games of the wild card (at least, the second wild card). Of those teams, I'd only bet on the White Sox being willing to sell. Let's look at the four AL selling teams (White Sox, Twins, Rangers, Astros – it's possible that in 10 days the Rays, Royals, Indians or Red Sox might fall in that camp, but I'm not putting them there yet) – what do they have to sell?
White Sox – Did you know that John Danks makes more than any other player on the White Sox, at $15,750,000.00? It's true! He will be paid $750,000 more than teammate Adam Dunn this year. There's more good news – he's under contract for two more years after this one! Suffice to say, he's untradeable. Dunn's disastrous deal ends this year, so while the ultimate Three True Outcomes hitter is movable, he still might not get traded as he's also slumping. But enough about the albatrosses – the two players most likely to get moved are second baseman Gordon Beckham and outfielder Alejandro De Aza. Beckham has one more year after this before he's eligible to be a free agent, but might be a non-tender candidate in the offseason, assuming that the White Sox don't want to go through arbitration with him. He started well this year after beginning the year on the DL, but has since crashed to earth at the plate and is currently hitting .232/.284/.369. De Aza was the subject of trade rumors in the offseason, but nothing materialized, then the White Sox lost Avisail Garcia to injury.
But looking at the White Sox rotation, there isn't a good trade candidate. Chris Sale isn't going anywhere, nor is Jose Quintana at his price, we've discussed Danks, and the other two options are both cheap and near replacement level anyhow (Hector Noesi, Scott Carroll). The team has had all sorts of problems in their bullpen and traded away Addison Reed in the offseason, so there's nothing to deal here, either.
Twins – One of the trade deadline paradoxes is that bad teams rarely have good starting pitching to trade. This is especially true in the American League, and the Twins are a prime example. Phil Hughes just signed this offseason and has for the most part been a big success, though the month of July has been rocky. Still, they're not trading him. They would almost certainly like to unwind the Ricky Nolasco contract, but (a) nobody is going to trade for him now at that price, and (b) he's hurt. Likewise, it's hard to imagine much of a market for Kevin Correa. The remainder of the Twins' rotation consists of prospects (Kyle Gibson, and Alex Meyer in the future) or replacement-level scrubs like Kris Johnson. There are no starting pitchers to trade here.
There is a fantastic reliever that the Twins could trade, however, in Glen Perkins. But given that they just inked him to a four-year extension with a club option this offseason, it's highly unlikely that they'd now reverse course and trade him, especially with his local ties. They missed the window to trade Jared Burton, too, now that he isn't nearly as effective. Brian Duensing might draw interest from a team needing a lefty out of the pen, however.
Missing trade windows is what the Twins are all about, however. Consider the case of Josh Willingham. Willingham had a big year in 2012, the first of a three-year, $21 million deal. Given that they had just signed him in the offseason, there was a certain bit of logic about the Twins not dealing him that summer. After all, it's hard to sign free agents if you're only going to deal them away six months later. But that was also the last time that Willingham, never a plus defender, has been worth his deal. He's now 35 and likely to fetch very little if anything at all this summer.
Astros – Even though they've (rightly) dealt everything not nailed down the past couple of years, believe it or not the Astros might have more inventory to trade this summer. Opening Day starter Scott Feldman however is unlikely to be a part of any deal, given his three-year contract and predictable rise in ERA after moving back to the AL. And the rest of the starting rotation is young enough that there's no incentive for the Astros to trade.
However, the team has one intriguing trade option in closer Chad Qualls, who has been quite a bargain after signing a two-year deal this offseason (a deal that pays him just $2.75 million this year). Qualls revived his career in Miami last year, but has been even better with the Astros, posting a 1.83 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a fantastic 30:4 K:BB in 34.1 innings. Will this be the second year in a row that they are able to flip a closer for prospects?
Rangers – If you want to see a depressing list, check out the DL'd Rangers salaries. Anyhow, there are no trade candidates among the Rangers' starting pitchers. Yu Darvish isn't going anywhere, Colby Lewis would declare such a trade a violation of the unwritten rules of baseball, and both Nick Tepesch and Miles Mikolas are bigger candidates to get optioned than dealt.
However, their bullpen is a good place to look for possible trades. Joakim Soria has been both good and is cheap, making him quite a trade target. That affordable contract also gives the Rangers less of a reason to trade him if they believe that they'll be back in contention next year. Given that they said that Adrian Beltre is off the table, clearly they believe that to be the case – though that could just be trade posturing to raise the price of Soria. They already traded away Jason Frasor to the Royals, but lefty Neal Cotts could garner some interest, despite pitching worse than last season.
The Rangers are at the end of the Alex Rios contract, so he seems like a pretty decent bet to be available, provided the acquiring team can work out the dollars with the Rangers. But how desirable is Rios? He has only four homers this year, continuing a trend of plunging power, and hasn't been nearly as effective on the basepaths. But maybe the lack of other helpful bats will make him more attractive.
Looking at the four likely selling teams in the AL, there are no starting pitchers to be had, unless and NL team wants to get creative with Danks or Nolasco and gets mounds of salary relief – in other words, it's not going to happen. If the Rays, Red Sox or Royals were to give and trade their respective aces, they would be able to command quite a ransom. These next 10 days could drastically change the trade market.
We'll do a similar exercise for the NL tomorrow, to see if the outlook is any brighter for a big trade.