I did this exercise last year, and I'll copy the intro because it still applies:
A couple caveats before I proceed to the list. First, there's virtually no player I wouldn't own in some format at some price, but the odds of me getting any of these in any format in which I play are close to zero. Second, had I done one of these for baseball, Felix Hernandez [Todd Frazier] would have been on it. I think it's important to remember and publicize your misses in these exercises because we all have them every year, and it's easy to pose as a voice of expert authority when really you're just another experienced fantasy owner doing his best to make sense of the available evidence. That out of the way, here are the guys I [probably] won't own:
1. Andre Johnson, WR, IND
It's not just that Johnson had a bad year in 2014 - he had a bad year on an efficient passing team. Ryan Fitzpatrick finished with 8.0 YPA, fourth among passers with 300 or more attempts and slightly ahead of Peyton Manning, with no help from Johnson who averaged a meager 6.4 YPT (39th among the league's 41 100-target WR.) Contrast that with Johnson's 2012 when he averaged a robust 9.9 YPT and even his volume-driven 2013 when he managed a league-average 7.8. None of this should be especially surprising - as great as Johnson was during his Hall-of-Fame-level peak, he's now 34, and deep into the decline phase of his career. Moreover, while some receivers have remained productive into their mid-30s, almost all of them have been small. The recent exceptions are Anquan eBoldin and Terrell Owens, and among receivers with 700 receiving yards only Owens had more than seven touchdowns.
It's possible Johnson bucks the trend - he's one of the 20 or so greatest receivers of all time - but neither Boldin nor Owens experienced such a precipitous decline in efficiency heading into his age 34 season. And while the Andrew Luck pairing should help, the Colts have a lot of passing-game options, meaning Johnson's target ceiling is lower than that of other players in his ADP range (currently No. 17 among WR and 31 overall in the NFFC.)
2. Amari Cooper, WR, OAK
Last year proved the stigma against rookie receivers was unwarranted, but Cooper, talented as he might be, is part of the league's worst passing environment. Before you argue Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee or Houston is likely to be worse, consider the per-play output of the Oakland passing game last year. The Raiders weren't just last, they were last by a light year. Put differently, there was a bigger difference in YPA between the No. 31 Jaguars and No. 32 Raiders than between the No. 7 Colts and No. 19 Bengals. It's possible Derek Carr improves in Year 2 as most quarterbacks do, but since when have the Raiders developed a quarterback or receiver of note? It's likely Cooper will get plenty of targets, and that will boost his value in PPR formats, but his price of WR22 in the NFFC is too high given his likely meager per-target output.
3. Carlos Hyde, RB, SF
His ADP of 20 in the NFFC is actually reasonable, but this is more of a bad vibe than a logic call. Hyde was last year's must-have backup given Frank Gore's mileage and the run-friendly environment in San Francisco, but despite merely a passable season from Gore, Hyde couldn't break through, averaging only 4.0 YPC, a low number for a rookie with fresh legs spelling the starter. It's a small sample, to be sure, but there's nothing compelling about Hyde as a runner - his 4.66 40 time is poor, and he's not that stout (220-pounds) for his height (6-0.) The situation reminds me of Montee Ball's last year - that of a player who inherited the job after the starter ahead of him signed elsewhere. Hyde's claim to the bulk of the carries is based solely on where he was drafted (late second round) and the lack of ostensible competition around him. But unlike Alfred Morris, who could fumble twice in Weeks 1 and 2 and still keep the job, Hyde hasn't done anything to warrant a commitment to him if he doesn't play well out of the gate. Finally, the presence of Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter make it unlikely Hyde will see third-down work, limiting his upside.
4. Jimmy Graham, TE, NO
While the swap of quarterback Drew Brees for Russell Wilson might seem like a wash, the downgrade from the New Orleans passing game to Seattle's is monumental. Put differently, would you rank Russell Wilson anywhere near Drew Brees if Wilson's rushing stats ceased to count? That's where Graham finds himself - in a passing offense that was 27th in yards (3,250) and dead last in attempts with 454. Contrast that with New Orleans' numbers (4,764 yards, 3rd and 659 attempts, 2nd.) For Graham to match even last year's 124 targets, he'd need to have 27 percent of the team's overall number, a total surpassed by only a handful of elite receivers each year and almost never by a tight end. Moreover, the Seahawks have always spread the ball around in the Wilson/Pete Carroll era even when quality receivers like Golden Tate and Percy Harvin were on the roster. Graham's currently the 28th overall pick in NFFC, and I'm passing on him for players like Jordan Matthews, Melvin Gordon and Brandin Cooks (in PPR), all of whom are going later.
Honorable Mention:
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, MIN
No one's drafting Bridgewater to be a starter in a one-QB league, but he's currently the No. 18 QB in NFFC, ahead of Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer, all of whom have far more upside. With the Vikings committed to giving Adrian Peterson a big workload and coached by defensive-mined Mike Zimmer, it's hard to see Bridgewater getting north of 525 attempts unless the defense collapses. Moreover, his receivers are average at best with neither Charles Johnson nor Mike Wallace cracking the top-30 in ADP and tight end Kyle Rudolph not making the top-10.