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ADP Trends: WR Dominated Top-50

Next up in the ADP series is a look at what's happening in the early rounds of fantasy drafts. It feels like there's been a big shift in positional value since I started following average draft positions for these preseason posts in 2014. So, I want to see if the numbers match that.

2016 Positional Breakdown

QB: 3 (6%)
RB: 15 (30%)
WR: 30 (60%)
TE: 2 (4%)

In 2014 and 2015 the positional breakdown was pretty stagnant. In fact, the percentages were exactly the same, but there were more running backs at the very top in 2014. Things look very different, however, from 2015 to 2016. There are again three quarterbacks in the top-50 and only two tight ends compared to three. All of the variance comes with running backs and wide receivers. The fantasy community is clearly moving from running back to wide receiver early in drafts and it's easy to see why, given the volatility of the former last season.

Last year just under half of the top-50 were receivers. In 2016, that number rose to 60-percent. If we go back to 2013, it was maybe the last time we'll ever see more running backs (24) than wide receivers (20) being selected among the first 50 players.

Looking at just the top-10 in comparison to last season's July ADP, there are still four running backs and six wide receivers. Only one back, though, (Le'Veon Bell) was in the top-50 at all in 2015. The three other backs being drafted among the first ten picks in 2016 are standout rookies from last year (Todd Gurley and David Johnson) and a rookie this year (Zeke Elliott). Overall, five new ball carriers show up on the list -- the three already mentioned, plus third-year back Devonta Freeman and Doug Martin, who has re-joined the party going into his fifth NFL season, even though it feels like he's been around a lot longer.

On the flipside, 21 of the 24 receivers from 2015 return to the top-50 in 2016. One of the three who fell from the list is retired future HOF'er Calvin Johnson. Andre Johnson and Emmanuel Sanders are the other two. That means there are nine new wide receivers in the first 50 picks, signifying not only the faith fantasy owners have in the consistency of the position, but also the influx of young talent in recent years.

Other notes:

  • Antonio Brown repeats at the most coveted asset in re-draft leagues. Brown is on a ludicrous run, averaging 125 catches for 1677 yards and 10.3 touchdowns over the last three seasons.
  • Cam Newton takes the top spot among quarterbacks, just sneaking inside the top-40. Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck return, but at a much lower price point than 2015. Drew Brees falls from the list, but only about 10 spots to No. 60 overall.
  • Gronk still headlines the tight end position. He hovers at the round one-two turn in 12-team drafts, just as he did a year ago. Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce fall off. Jordan Reed is the newcomer with an ADP of 34.25. Greg Olson (52.63) has just missed the top-50 once again.
  • Only one rookie, Ezekiel Elliot, appears in the pre-camp top-50. With a 9.75 ADP, the former Buckeye is going higher than any rookie in recent history. No rookies were drafted among the top-50 in 2014. Amari Cooper was the only first-year player on this list last year, when he was being selected in the 40's.

Below is the full 2016 top-50 ADP from NFFC and some takeaways. Again, this data is from 12-team PPR leagues.

Rank

Player

Avg Pick

1Antonio Brown (WR, Pit)1.13
2Julio Jones (WR, Atl)2.13
3Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, NYG)2.75
4DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Hou)5.25
5Todd Gurley (RB, LA)6.13
6David Johnson (RB, Ari)6.88
7Le'Veon Bell (RB, Pit)7.13
8A.J. Green (WR, Cin)7.63
9Dez Bryant (WR, Dal)9.5
10Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Dal)9.75
11Allen Robinson (WR, Jax)10.63
12Brandin Cooks (WR, NO)13.75
13Adrian Peterson (RB, Min)14.13
14Keenan Allen (WR, SD)14.63
15Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)14.63
16Lamar Miller (RB, Hou)15.25
17Jordy Nelson (WR, GB)16
18Devonta Freeman (RB, Atl)19.5
19Alshon Jeffery (WR, Chi)19.63
20Mike Evans (WR, TB)20
21Amari Cooper (WR, Oak)20.63
22Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ)21.5
23T.Y. Hilton (WR, Ind)23.25
24Demaryius Thomas (WR, Den)24
25Jarvis Landry (WR, Mia)25
26Jamaal Charles (RB, KC)26.13
27Mark Ingram (RB, NO)27.75
28Randall Cobb (WR, GB)28.88
29Sammy Watkins (WR, Buf)29.25
30Eddie Lacy (RB, GB)31.38
31Golden Tate (WR, Det)32.75
32Doug Martin (RB, TB)33.75
33Jordan Reed (TE, Was)34.25
34Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Car)34.25
35Jeremy Maclin (WR, KC)35.5
36Julian Edelman (WR, NE)36.88
37Cam Newton (QB, Car)39.75
38Jordan Matthews (WR, Phi)40.25
39C.J. Anderson (RB, Den)40.88
40Donte Moncrief (WR, Ind)41.5
41Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)41.63
42Doug Baldwin (WR, Sea)42.13
43LeSean McCoy (RB, Buf)42.75
44Michael Floyd (WR, Ari)44
45Matt Forte (RB, NYJ)44.5
46Larry Fitzgerald (WR, Ari)44.88
47Eric Decker (WR, NYJ)47.63
48Andrew Luck (QB, Ind)48.25
49DeVante Parker (WR, Mia)48.25
50Carlos Hyde (RB, SF)48.88