This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Monday's eight-game slate presents its own unique set of challenges as the matchups will require a shift in what we look for due to a number of factors.
For the past week, it's been easy to find value with the Golden State Warriors, with guys like Quinn Cook, Nick Young and Kevon Looney coming in at dirt-cheap prices. They've also had the advantage of playing some pretty lousy teams in this recent stretch, and while I don't think the Spurs are measurably better, they do present a fantasy challenge as their scheme will result in a much slower pace of play. Unfortunately, I think many who return to these guys are going to end up disappointed by a significant production slip. Even though Cook ($17) has risen in price, he might be the only one of this crew that I'd consider looking at Monday, with a slight nod to Young in tournament lineups.
Instead of looking at the Warriors, I think we now have a decent idea of what the Bulls will look like without Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen and Kris Dunn in the lineup, and the main guy who benefits is Cameron Payne ($12). After his double-double Saturday against Cleveland, he sets up to do more damage against the Knicks, who find themselves in a similar boat with nothing to play for. While I think inconsequential games down the stretch will carry a modicum of DFS risk, Payne should fare well as a value pick, as will Denzel Valentine ($14).
The Hornets-Sixers game sports a 223 O/U, which is the second-highest line of the evening, and while the Sixers are eight-point favorites, we should be giving some exposure to Jeremy Lamb ($11) as Nicolas Batum will be out and could be missing a lot more time. This will also boost Kemba Walker's ($30) inherent value. Joel Embiid ($44) has had an up-and-down history against Dwight Howard, so I'm not as high on The Process on Monday.
Discussing Embiid leads us to our spend-up options on the slate. The Cavs-Bucks matchup is a crucial contest, especially for the Bucks, and at a 223.5 line it figures to be a barn burner. There is no doubt that many people will jump on LeBron James ($56) and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($52), with a number of players opting to stack them and go low elsewhere. I think those who don't pick one of them do so at their own peril, but I think a stack immediately shuts out some really good mid-level plays that could be difference-makers. As for deciding which player to go with, it's pretty much a wash as both players have performed well against each other. I'll only be saving $4, but I'd be more likely to lean towards Giannis.
I'll now highlight two players at each position along with a small list of alternate picks that holds equal weight in my predictions. If I have assigned a dollar amount to a player above, they are also favorable options on the slate. We'll also target a player to fade at each spot.
GUARD
Eric Bledsoe, MIL at CLE ($28): If I'm going to favor Giannis, it makes sense to stack Bledsoe with him, as the duo ranks as the third-best assist-to-basket combo on the slate. Cleveland has also struggled to cover the floor generals of opposing teams, and rank ninth in YFP allowed to point guards over the past five games. Regardless, I think Bledsoe is a low-risk pick who should provide dividends with low ownership.
Jamal Murray, DEN at MIA ($22): The Nuggets are in do-or-die mode and the Heat are hanging on to the eighth seed in the East, so this game has probably the biggest playoff ramifications of any game tonight. The absence of Gary Harris will put more pressure on Murray to perform, and I think he'll respond against a Heat team that he's yet to face this season.
Other guards to consider: Ben Simmons, PHI vs. CHA ($44); Tyreke Evans, MEM at BKN ($29); De'Aaron Fox, SAC vs. DET ($17)
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GUARDS TO AVOID
Emmanuel Mudiay ($11) / Trey Burke ($11), NY vs, CHI: While both were DFS darlings last month, I think it's a blind dart throw to determine who will be the better play Monday. The Knicks are rotating like crazy, and Courtney Lee and Jarrett Jack are also knocking on the door again. It's best to stay away from the Knicks backcourt altogether.
FORWARD
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, BKN vs. MEM ($22): With a litany of questionable tags and sub-par matchups further up the slate, the fact that I'm dropping all the way down to here for a recommendation qualifies as a valid argument for LeBron and Giannis more than an endorsement of Hollis-Jefferson. Still, it's been hard to ignore his stat lines over the past week, and at this price we'll be hard pressed to find better value.
Will Barton, DEN at MIA ($21): Barton will likely slide into the two spot for Harris and basically the same argument I used for Murray applies here. Yahoo gives Barton a SF designation, so you have the opportunity to attack this game again in a must-win matchup for the Nuggets.
Other forwards to consider: Julius Randle, LAL at IND ($35); Dario Saric, PHI vs. CHA ($21); Jarell Martin, MEM at BKN ($14)
FORWARD TO AVOID
Wilson Chandler, DEN at MIA ($19): While I like a lot of Nuggets tonight, Chandler is a wild card that I'm not sold on. While he gets a lot of minutes when he gets the start, he doesn't seem to do much with them, and impressive stat lines comes far too infrequently for me to roster him with any confidence.
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CENTER
Nikola Jokic, DEN at MIA ($41): I'll go panning for gold with the Nuggets again here, as Jokic faces an exploitable Miami frontcourt with Hassan Whiteside out. Not to knock Bam Adebayo, but I think Jokic will be way too much for him to handle in this one.
Al Jefferson, IND vs. LAL ($13): With Domantas Sabonis out and Myles Turner suffering from a high ankle sprain, Jefferson drew the start Saturday and played extremely well. At the very least we will see a lot of him on the second unit, and he could very well start again if Turner isn't available to go.
Other centers to consider: Andre Drummond, DET at SAC ($40); Bobby Portis, CHI at NY ($23); John Henson, MIL at CLE ($11)
CENTER TO AVOID
Bam Adebayo, MIA vs. DEN ($11): All you have to do is look at Adebayo's lines to realize that despite drawing the start, he isn't a reliable value pick. If you have to go anywhere in Whiteside's absence it should be towards Kelly Olynyk, who has a much more reliable floor. Add in Jokic to the mix, and you have an obvious fade.
