This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Thursday's NBA slate features 12 teams in action, including four of the nine highest-ranked teams in pace. Last Thursday, we finished with two wins and one loss, the last of which came with late news of San Antonio's Kawhi Leonard scratched against the Clippers. Here's a look at this week's recommended bets. Betting lines listed are from covers.com.
Warriors at Magic +7.5; Total: 221.5
No concerns for the Warriors, who face the Magic in the second of back-to-back games on the road. It's a short road trip from Miami on Wednesday to Orlando, and the Dubs are 13-1 this season in games on no rest. One interesting stat about the soon-to-be two-time NBA MVP Stephen Curry is that his scoring average this season increases by more than five points per game on the road (32.4 ppg). Combine that with the Magic's bottom-10 defense against point guards and you have the Chef ready to cook up another 40-point meal to serve to the Magic. Orlando also ranks in the bottom 10 against small forwards the last three weeks, which is mainly a function of Evan Fournier playing out of position as its new starting small forward.
On the offensive side for Orlando, we can see that the subtraction of Tobias Harris and the addition of Aaron Gordon into the starting lineup has jumpstarted the pace rate for the Magic, who have skyrocketed from 18th in the NBA this season to sixth in the last three weeks. This can also be attributed
Thursday's NBA slate features 12 teams in action, including four of the nine highest-ranked teams in pace. Last Thursday, we finished with two wins and one loss, the last of which came with late news of San Antonio's Kawhi Leonard scratched against the Clippers. Here's a look at this week's recommended bets. Betting lines listed are from covers.com.
Warriors at Magic +7.5; Total: 221.5
No concerns for the Warriors, who face the Magic in the second of back-to-back games on the road. It's a short road trip from Miami on Wednesday to Orlando, and the Dubs are 13-1 this season in games on no rest. One interesting stat about the soon-to-be two-time NBA MVP Stephen Curry is that his scoring average this season increases by more than five points per game on the road (32.4 ppg). Combine that with the Magic's bottom-10 defense against point guards and you have the Chef ready to cook up another 40-point meal to serve to the Magic. Orlando also ranks in the bottom 10 against small forwards the last three weeks, which is mainly a function of Evan Fournier playing out of position as its new starting small forward.
On the offensive side for Orlando, we can see that the subtraction of Tobias Harris and the addition of Aaron Gordon into the starting lineup has jumpstarted the pace rate for the Magic, who have skyrocketed from 18th in the NBA this season to sixth in the last three weeks. This can also be attributed to the addition of Brandon Jennings, a point guard known for his penchant for pushing the ball up the court and is now pushing Elfrid Payton for playing time. The Magic have won four of their last six, scoring at least 110 points in three of their last five games. We can usually count on the Warriors to hold up their end of the bargain on the over. Golden State has scored at least 112 points in every game this month except two (at ATL, at POR). Using their two games against Oklahoma City this season for comparison in terms of scoring and game flow, the Magic and Thunder combined for scoring totals of 231 and 275.
The Picks: Golden State -7.5; Over 221.5
Thunder at Pelicans +5; Total: 221.5
The hits just keep on coming for Anthony Davis and the Pelicans this season, who are now down three players from their starting lineup, with Tyreke Evans out for the season following knee surgery, Eric Gordon still out with a finger injury and Omer Asik out two weeks with a sprained ankle. The Pelicans allow the fifth-most points in the league, giving up 105.3 points per game. The last five games, that number has jumped up to 109.2 points allowed per game.
The Thunder have two of the top four road scoring leaders in Russell Westbrook (26.3 road ppg) and Kevin Durant ( 28.5 road ppg) and are coming off of a 26-point blowout of the Pelicans on Feb. 11. Westbrook locked up against the defense of Norris Cole, who could be less than 100 percent healthy after requiring an IV injection at halftime Tuesday, might shape up to be the most lopsided defensive matchup for the Pelicans. Look for the Thunder to cover against Anthony Davis and the New Orleans JV squad.
The Pick: Oklahoma City -5
Bucks at Celtics -8; Total: 216
Coming off the All-Star break, the Bucks have begun to heat up, winning four of their last five games. The Celtics look like they are scuffling a bit, losing three of their last five, but have scored into the 120s in three of their last four. With Boston ranking third in the NBA in pace, the over looks safe.
Nets at Suns -1; Total: 207.5
This is game is tough to call. Both teams are inconsistent. Phoenix has a starting rotation that is constantly in flux, making it hard to pin down the minutes and production. Joe Johnson was bought out of his contract earlier Thursday. I'd consider this game a fade altogether.
Rockets at Trail Blazers -3.5; Total: 218.5
The money has been pouring in on the under since the line opened, pushing the total down from 222 to 218.5. The safer bet is riding with Portland, which is 19-11 at home, 17-13 against the spread and 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games. Houston is 13-15 against the spread on the road and 5-5 versus the spread in their last 10 games.
Spurs at Jazz +3; Total: 193.5
Nearly all the public money is riding the Spurs. Covers.com has 78 percent of field betting on San Antonio at -3. With these two tough defensive teams, the under looks good, as well. The Spurs and Jazz have combined to allow 189.9 points on the season.
