This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
NBA Cup Quarterfinals: Hawks at Knicks
For all of us long-starved Knicks fans, a title sits just three wins away! OK, not the NBA title, but hey, NBA Cup, we'll take it for now. The Knicks host the Hawks on Wednesday with a trip to Vegas and the tournament semifinals on the line. Let's dig in. Team stats I quote come from Cleaning The Glass and exclude garbage minutes and end-of-quarter heaves.
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Hawks vs Knicks Best Odds
Hawks +7 (Caesars) Knicks -6.5 (-115, BetRivers)
Over 236.5 (DraftKings) Under 237 (Caesars)
Hawks +235 (BetRivers) Knicks -270 (ESPN BET)
Hawks vs. Knicks Overview
The 13-12 Hawks rate as a pretty league-average team. They carry a modest negative efficiency differential; 113.6 OE vs 115.2 DE. They have gotten hot lately, however, winning 6 straight before getting clocked 141-111 by the Nuggets in their last game. They have beaten the Cavs twice, impressive considering Cleveland has just 4 losses all season. They've also taken down the Celtics and the Knicks.
As befits their record, the Hawks sit near the middle of the league in just about every stat. They crash the offensive glass well at 31.3% (6th ranked) and cause turnovers (16%, 4th). Those offensive boards allow them to get more shots off near the rim at a good clip (36.6%, 5th) but they don't capitalize as often as they should (64%, 21st). Hawks star and one-time MSG super villain Trae Young is having a down year by his standards. He's hitting just 31% from 3, his worst mark as a pro, and his 20.9 PPG ranks below all but his rookie year. The Hawks as a whole hit 35% from beyond the arc, just below the league average.
On paper, the Knicks should have a field day from the perimeter. They rank 2nd in the league in 3P% at 40.8%, while the Hawks rank dead last allowing 3's at 39.1%. There's some thought that the real skill on team defense is keeping teams from getting the good looks from 3 in the first place. But the Hawks are terrible there too as opponents attempt 41.8% of their field goals from beyond the arc, 2nd worst in the NBA.
The Knicks have become an offensive juggernaut, leading the NBA with a 123.8 OE. Their defense started poorly and at 115.3 DE, they rank just 17th. But that DE has improved to 111.1 over the last 2 weeks and should get even better now that Precious Achiuwa has returned to the frontcourt.
As for the offense….everyone with rotation minutes and not named Mikal Bridges has excelled. Karl-Anthony Towns (25.3 PPG, 45% 3P% to go with 13.2 RPG) and Jalen Brunson (25.2 PPG, 43.2% 3P%, 7.8 APG) have played at All NBA level. Defensive wing star OG Anunoby averages a career best 17.5 PPG. Josh Hart (13.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 5.5 APG) does everything. The Knicks big flaw? They have a short bench and it doesn't help that Tom Thibodeau scoffs at your "load management". Malcolm McBride (DEUCE!!) has put up 10.9 PPG on 42.6% 3P% in 25.7 minutes per game and now Precious is working his way back into the rotation in place of Jericho Sims who combined excellent rim protection with non-existent offense. Beyond that, there's journeyman Cameron Payne shooting 43.3% from 3 and that's it.
The short bench and ensuing extra mileage on the stars might matter next spring. But for now the Knicks face one single elimination game, and obviously not the time Coach Thibs is going to cut back.
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Hawks vs Knicks Betting Picks
Knicks -6.5 (-115 BetRivers)
Kudos to Commish Adam Silver for getting this tournament going. I know big European soccer fans love these, but I was skeptical anyone would care much about them in the NBA. But hey its fun in a time of year where a lot of games get mailed in. The Knicks have had a recent pattern of starting incredibly slowly vs. mediocre teams then generally pulling away over time. The exception was their last NBA Cup game in the Group Stage vs. a Magic team that is good (at least they were a week ago before Franz Wagner joined Pablo Banchero on the shelf. The Knicks clubbed them and actually let up in the 4th quarter when (perhaps) they wanted to let Orlando join them in the Knockout stage.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 12.5 Rebounds (-125, DraftKings)
KAT averages 13.2 boards per game and has grabbed 13 or more in four straight games, and 7 of his last 8. The one game in there that he missed he had "only" 12. In fact, since a season-opening blowout loss to the Celtics, he has double-figure rebounds in all but one game, and he had 9. He grabbed 16 rebounds vs. these very Hawks on November 6th.
