This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
In today's column, we'll focus on prop bets in this weekend's NBA All-Star Saturday night. We'll discuss where the chalk makes sense and identify the best betting values for the NBA Skills Competition, Three-Point Contest and All-Star Slam Dunk competition.
Skills Competition
Odds for the Skills players:
Isaiah Thomas, BOS, +333
Patrick Beverley, HOU, +500
Jordan Clarkson, LAL, +500
C.J. McCollum, POR, +450
Draymond Green, GSW, +500
DeMarcus Cousins, SAC, +850
Anthony Davis, NOH, +800
To chalk or not to chalk?
Isaiah Thomas is the favorite and is a chalk option I like for a few reasons. From a value standpoint, anytime you can get three times your money on the favorite, you should take advantage of it. We must also note that the NBA has decided to mix up the field and throw in four big men who have almost no chance to win this contest. Speed is as important as passing and shooting in this competition, so while all four bigs possess solid all-around skill sets, only Draymond Green has enough speed to keep up with the three guards in the field. Green, however, does not possess this smooth, quick-release pull-up jumper necessary to win. Having to take second and third attempts at jumpshots will eliminate you quickly.
If we're looking for speed, passing and pull-up jumper consistency, the latter eliminates Patrick Beverley and leaves us with C.J. McCollum and Isaiah Thomas. Both are great shooters. The other X-factor is
In today's column, we'll focus on prop bets in this weekend's NBA All-Star Saturday night. We'll discuss where the chalk makes sense and identify the best betting values for the NBA Skills Competition, Three-Point Contest and All-Star Slam Dunk competition.
Skills Competition
Odds for the Skills players:
Isaiah Thomas, BOS, +333
Patrick Beverley, HOU, +500
Jordan Clarkson, LAL, +500
C.J. McCollum, POR, +450
Draymond Green, GSW, +500
DeMarcus Cousins, SAC, +850
Anthony Davis, NOH, +800
To chalk or not to chalk?
Isaiah Thomas is the favorite and is a chalk option I like for a few reasons. From a value standpoint, anytime you can get three times your money on the favorite, you should take advantage of it. We must also note that the NBA has decided to mix up the field and throw in four big men who have almost no chance to win this contest. Speed is as important as passing and shooting in this competition, so while all four bigs possess solid all-around skill sets, only Draymond Green has enough speed to keep up with the three guards in the field. Green, however, does not possess this smooth, quick-release pull-up jumper necessary to win. Having to take second and third attempts at jumpshots will eliminate you quickly.
If we're looking for speed, passing and pull-up jumper consistency, the latter eliminates Patrick Beverley and leaves us with C.J. McCollum and Isaiah Thomas. Both are great shooters. The other X-factor is that sometimes players tend to "play it cool" and compete at half speed, as if they don't care if they win the competition. Isaiah Thomas does absolutely nothing at half speed. His entire game is built around playing at a pace of a thousand miles per hour. Give him the edge in this contest, with McCollum a close second.
The pick: Thomas +333
Best Value Bet: McCollum +450
Three-Point Contest
Odds for the shooters:
Stephen Curry, GSW, +125
Klay Thompson, GSW, +375
J.J. Redick, LAC, +500
Devin Booker, PHO, +700
Kyle Lowry, TOR, +700
James Harden, HOU, +1000
Khris Middleton, MIL, +1000
Chris Bosh, MIA, +1500
Lock the Chalk
All things in the world in world of the Golden State Warriors have been coming up roses, and such should be the case with the defending Three-Point champion in Stephen Curry. Since the Three-Point contest kicked off in 1986, six players have won back-to-back titles and two have won three years in a row (Larry Bird, Craig Hodges). In the case of Curry, we're talking about perhaps the greatest shooter of all time. He has arguably the quickest release from behind the arc, with Klay Thompson a close second, and has made 86 more treys than any player this year. He owns the record for three-pointers made in a season and is on pace to smash that record again in 2016.
For value, J.J. Redick is the pick who makes the most sense. His 47.8 three-point percentage leads the NBA this season, better than his career-high 43.7 percent from last season. take a look at his shot chart for this season (via StatMuse)
Redick would be smart to work the racks (from the overhead view) from right to left. His three-point percentage elevates significantly from 38.5% on the right wing to a whopping 64% in the left corner. This graphic suggests that Redick has a strong opportunity to stay in rhythm and shoot the last 15 shots from his favorite spots on the floor.
The Pick: Curry +125
Best Value Bet: Redick +500
Slam Dunk Competition
Slam Dunk odds:
Zach LaVine, MIN, -250
Will Barton, DEN, +400
Aaron Gordon, ORL, +450
Andre Drummond, DET, +800
LaVine is the odds-on favorite to repeat, and with good reason. Since the Slam Dunk Competition's inception in 1984, only five power forwards or centers have won. That should immediately rule out Aaron Gordon and Andre Drummond. It simply just isn't as impressive when a big man dunks in the competition, mostly because they aren't high flyers and rarely perform a dunk that hasn't been seen before. LaVine brought us both incredibly original dunks that we had not seen, and is an absolute high-flyer, who put his 46-inch vertical on full display. By default, that makes Will Barton the only viable option as a value play. He does happen to own a nice collection of posterizing dunks in his breakout season for the Nuggets. If LaVine somehow slips up and misses a few dunks, Barton could sneak off with the title on Saturday.
The Pick: LaVine -250
Best Value Bet: Barton +400
