This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
NBA Championship Futures Odds and Picks
We have hit the four-week mark in the NBA season. So how about a little check on some futures?
Yes, it's early. Yes, the Cavaliers will not win 78 games this year, nor will the Sixers win just 20. Yes, not every good team has exactly locked in yet. Barring something like a season-ending injury to a superstar, you would not expect enormous movement in NBA Championship futures odds. But we have seen some action in the markets. Let us take a lot at the risers and fallers, using current and preseason odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Basketball Reference. Stats will mostly come from Cleaning the Glass and only include non-garbage time data.
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NBA Championship Odds Risers
(Odds listed below are current odds vs. preseason odds.)
- Cleveland Cavaliers: +1200 vs. +5000
- Oklahoma City Thunder: +425 vs. +900
- Phoenix Suns: +1500 vs. +3500
- Golden State Warriors: +1600 vs. +3000
- Los Angeles Lakers: +2200 vs. +3000
There is no surprise at the top here as the Cavaliers have started 15-0 and look somewhat legit. They have a non-garbage time offensive efficiency of 123.7 (points per 100 possessions), which is second-best in the league. Their 110.9 defensive efficiency is the seventh-best in the NBA. The offense is probably not sustainable, however, as they have shot 41.9 percent from three, which, if they maintained, would break the record with the line at its current distance (the '96-'97 Hornets beat that but with the shorter line). That has carried them to a 62.1 percent effective field goal rate (eFG%) in non-garbage time, also likely unsustainable as the league averages 52.2 percent. The second-place team (Boston Celtics) sits considerably lower at 58 percent. They do have a new coach this year in Kenny Atkinson, who came from the Warriors and appears to have brought long-range shooting magic to The Land. But the Cavs have pretty much the same players and had an effective field goal rate of 55.7 percent and a three-point rate of 37.1 percent last year, both right around the league average. I would buy that they have improved (Evan Mobley especially) but at +1200, they now have the fifth-shortest title odds, and that looks like a stretch.
I would rather buy the Cavaliers at +1200 than the Suns at +1500, though. Not sure why the big pop. They sit at 9-6, which sounds about as expected after 15 games, perhaps a shade better since Kevin Durant has missed time. They have a negative efficiency differential, a 113.4 rating on offense and a 115.2 rating on defense. They look middling almost everywhere except stylistically as they are the second-worst team in the league at getting shots near the rim (29.1 percent,t). Yes they have the three stars and will threaten anyone in the playoffs if they make it there healthy. But they have odds shorter than the Timberwolves, Warriors and Lakers in the Western Conference. I'm not sure they should.
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NBA Championship Odds Fallers
How about the flip side? These teams have seen their title odds tank (the odds listed below are current odds vs. preseason odds).
- Philadelphia Sixers: +2500 vs +1400
- Minnesota Timberwolves: +1700 vs +850
- Milwaukee Bucks: +3500 vs +1100
Well, the Sixers do look terrible. But we have yet to see Paul George take the court with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Even with the three stars in and out of the lineup, they should play better than this. I get the price should drop a little, but this season has always been about just trying to figure out a way to have Embiid and George healthy in April. I am a Knicks fan but I will buy the Sixers here. Maxey returns later this week and they'll go on a run at some point.
I like the Timberwolves at their reduced price as well. They have not looked spectacular at 8-6 with a +2.8 offensive over defensive efficiency difference. But they are adjusting to adding Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo into their lineup while subtracting Karl-Anthony Towns just before the regular season. They have already improved.
NBA Championship Best Bets
- Philadelphia 76ers +2500
- Minnesota Timberwolves +1700
Do I think either team will win the title? Not really. I look at these more as buy-low opportunities with some hedges with other teams later. The Knicks sit at +850. I wish they had a similar move as the Timberwolves. They have an identical 8-6 record, but better metrics and play in a shallower conference.
